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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 2/26/19
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Meg Rowley
2:00
Hello all, and welcome to the chat!
Allow me to press "publish" on a post. A moment.
2:02
Ok, the moment has passed!
The button was pressed!
2:03
Let us chat.
Bread Gardner
2:03
Nobody seems to understand that the Yankees held off on signing Machado so they could sign Nolan Arenadohhhhhwaitasecondoops.  (But seriously, did anyone actually buy that?  And good for Nolan!)
Meg Rowley
2:04
I think that a reasonable case could be made that, in a vacuum, a club could prefer Arenado to Machado. That is absolutely a thing one could reasonably and credibly do. And of course, Machado gets to make his own decisions about where he goes in free agency, so clubs don'e have perfect control over these things.
2:05
But that said, Arenado's arb settlement made this whole thing a lot more likely and happened well before Machado's signing.
So while I could see a team wanting Arenado instead, it seems safe to say there was some squishiness to the sincerity of those public narratives.
2:06
If we wanted to be generous, we might say that those sincere clubs misjudged the risk of Arenado re-signing.
How generous do we feel? Could vary, I'd think.
Beetlejuice
2:07
T or F: Scott Boras has overplayed his hand with Harper and Keuchel - especially looking at both players' platform years. Clearly the system isn't working, but Boras might be one among many causes.
Meg Rowley
2:08
Hard to judge until we know what those deals actually look like. I think some of the shine is gone, certainly, but untangling what of that is Boras and what is this market being bad is tricky to do. I don't think we can blame one agent, even one so powerful as Boras, for a market that is clearly the result of many other factors.
hooha
2:08
Does strickland close for the Mariners?
Meg Rowley
2:08
Yes.
2-D
2:09
Did you watch Kikuchi? First impressions?
Meg Rowley
2:11
I caught the second inning live, and the first on replay. I thought he looked good. Was encouraged by the velocity, and I guess I hadn't realized how balanced he could look through the delivery even with the little hitch he has. He threw some very pretty curve balls.
Gonna be a bright spot on a weird and potentially pretty boring club.
Also, Shed Long looks real good. These have been my Early Spring Thoughts
NotGraphs Revivalist
2:11
Hooray! Arenado got a great contract!
Meg Rowley
2:12
Very. Good for him, good for Colorado, good for my 17-year-old cousin who is a Rockies fan and bought a jersey two years ago.
Love it when guys are Forever Players, and when they don't have to take a discount to do it.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:12
When will the Rays announce that they've acquired Willians Astudillo?
Meg Rowley
2:13
[extreme we are all joking here, this is a joke, here is joke voice] well presumably Jeff has to learn how to log in and fill out his HR paperwork first
Hakaida
2:14
Is there a minimum distance a AAA or AA affiliate can be in relation to their parent club? Las Vegas is building a new AAA ballpark, I’m worried this impacts our chances of getting a major league team.
Meg Rowley
2:14
Hold on-- let me see if I can quickly find a thing.
2:15
Ok, so
2:16
In the Professional Baseball Rules, which is different from the Rulebook that governs play on the field, there is a section on Territorial Rights
2:17
It says, in Rule 52 (a)(4): (4) No Major or Minor League Club may play its home games within the home territory or within 15 miles from the boundary of the home territory of any other Minor League Club, and no Minor League Club may play its home games within the home territory or within 15 miles of the home territory of any Major League Club, except pursuant to a grant of protected territory or an exception obtained in accordance with Rule 52(d).
HIghway61
2:17
Any idea when Fangraphs the Game winners from last year will receive their add free membership?
Meg Rowley
2:17
I shall ask!
Jeff Passan
2:18
I hear Nolan Arenado and Rockies are close to finalizing an 8 year, $260 M extension (AAV $32.5 M) with an opt-out after year 3.  Do you think this affects Harper's market?  Like, were there really teams sitting out Machado so they could try to sign Arenado next year?  Maybe more importantly, does it make Manny Machado feel sad that he won't have the highest AAV?
Meg Rowley
2:19
Machado is likely the better comp, and that's already settled. I'd be surprised if there were teams that were both sincerely hoping to save money for Arenado AND now will pivot to Harper, but it is possible.
Josh Donaldson has to be happy.
rR
2:19
why does Jeff not love us anymore? :'(
Meg Rowley
2:20
You can love things and also need to try new stuff out.
Regret is a terrible burden. It's good in life to try to mitigate potential regret.
We will and do miss Jeff very much, but as his human friend, I'm glad he can cross a thing off the potential regrets list.
That person again
2:21
Dan S. posted a long thread on the Tweeter yesterday about the CBA and what incentivizes or disincentivizes team behavior. What do we have that would disincentivize a team from service time manipulation (besides guilt and shame)? To me, it's easy to argue that it is often in the team's best interest. The decision on whether or not to promote a player is inherently a judgment call, with lots of costs and benefits to weigh, so it's virtually impossible to prove- saying that you can get away with something is not saying that it's good. However, in an environment that is all about competition, why should an organization not take advantage of any opportunity that is legitimately within the rules? Years of watching Bill Belichick win too much has taught me that the concept of "fair" is for suckers.
Meg Rowley
2:22
Very strange how top prospects heralded by prospect analysts (including those who work for MLB) and clubs as the future suddenly require seasoning! Weird that it happens so reliably every year.
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