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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 3/15/18
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Meg Rowley
2:22
He had a pretty good last month without a crazy BABIP, so that has to be encouraging but he just never walks at all, and the K% is still high. I'd expect better than the crummy mid-part of the season, worse than September. I'm intrigued by the reports out of camp that he wants to steal a bunch more bases. That could be neat.
vince clortho
2:22
There were many grim jokes in the leftier corner of baseball internet about Ohtani getting sent down for service time manipulation. However... as gross as it is, if he wants regular at bats, he might need some reps down there? That's too crazy right? Really looks lost though.
Meg Rowley
2:23
I... look, I never want to underestimate the mustache twirling potential of business types, but I'd be surprised if it happens at this point. That might be wildly naive on my part. I think based on everything they've said, his value is really the arm. I also don't think the shaky spring start means a whole lot, though you're right that more regular ABs would help with the adjustment.
Dann
2:23
Fun with HBP frequency: in 2017, catchers were the position most frequently hit (78.67 non-IBB PA/HBP), SS's the least (183.89). Tyler Flowers? 1 HBP per 18.45 PA. Catchers REALLY seem to be leaning into the OBP revolution (* position determined by exporting 2017 defensive data, sort by player id asc/innings desc, dedup, vlookup onto offensive sheet)
Meg Rowley
2:24
I always wonder how much of this is that catchers are just big bodied dudes who assume they know exactly where the zone is, and think they can take a couple in the arm or the back.
Rog Mewley
2:25
What if the draft was tied to market size instead of record? Maybe with a lottery to mix it up year-to-year? As a tanking solution?
Meg Rowley
2:26
Lot of ways to incentivize winning. I'm reluctant to use the draft to do that because it limits player choice. If we're starting from scratch, I wonder what a salary floor and no draft would do.
Billy Beane
2:27
Boo to ties! Collect your tar and feathers ladies and gentlemen, we must run this fellow out of the town!
Meg Rowley
2:27
[extreme Janet on The Good Place voice] Not a fellow.
Ivan's dad
2:28
Cubs getting TV money by the year's end.  Word is they're gonna jump the tax. In order of 1-2-3 which is the most/least likely...

1 - Harper signs with the Cubs to join his BFF Bryant. The latter gets an extension. Both deals close to 3/4 billion total (with opt-outs, of course, because that's the "in-thing").

2 - Harper signs with the Cubs gets an opt out after 3 so he & KB can bruh it up in another city for Bryant's FA year in 2022.

3- Cubs aint signing Harper, but extend their "non-Boras" Players (Contreras, Hendricks, Baez, Schwarber...)
Meg Rowley
2:30
I think I'd take the field on Harper and the Cubs just because I am a coward and hate predictions about free agent signings. Jeff made a very good point tangential point about this in his Arrieta post, which is that contracts and opt outs are getting more complicated and are likely to continue to get more complicated as time goes on and teams try to protect themselves from downside risk.  The point re: Harper was that his contract is gonna be very weird and crazy. I tend to agree. It'll be a huge investment and whatever club signs him will be nervous about that not working out.
Bob Loblaw
2:31
I understand the frustration surrounding the Marlins, Pirates, A's, and Rays payroll situations, and the MLBPA's grievance, but shouldn't there be more frustration around the Mets?  Largest market, RSN, new stadium, and they're routinely in the middle or lower third of MLB payrolls.
Meg Rowley
2:32
I might suggest that you follow fewer Mets fans than I do on twitter. I get the sense that their fanbase is quite agitated about the spending.
2:33
They'll always be the team whose owners literally were duped in a Ponzi scheme. There will always be grumbling and joking about their finances, especially if everyone gets hurt again.
Adenolith
2:33
Do you think the players actually dislike the pace-of-play stuff or could this be an opportunity to look like they're giving something up come the next CBA?
Meg Rowley
2:34
I think they do have some sincere concerns. A lot of pitchers and catchers are bothered by the mound visit thing, and think there will be cheating.
And more than that, the idea that Manfred would change the game unilaterally (yes, I know, he is able to do that) isn't popular.
2:35
And also yes, they might be concessions, though for what I'm not sure. It isn't much of a bargaining chip when your boss can just do it anyway.
vivalajeter
2:36
Dom Smith is hurt, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting like an old player with a bad back, Nimmo is playing very well and Conforto is allegedly going to return to the lineup sooner than expected.  Why wouldn't Jay Bruce get more time at 1B this spring?
Meg Rowley
2:36
It's an interesting question. Hold on one second, let me look something up.
2:38
Looks like he's had 14 games at 1st in his career. Not inspiring. I still think they probably stick with A-Gon until Smith comes back.
Zachary
2:39
Do you feel that the players themselves or the Players Association wants a change in how the service time is defined? As a Reds fan, I think Nick Senzel and Tyler Mahle should be part of the team leaving spring training, but they will be sent down to exploit an extra year under team control. As the owners share of profit goes up and if free agency continues its current trend, it would seem that the players could get back some of their leverage in the next CBA by redefining service time or having clear punishments for service time manipulations, such as Kris Bryant's.
Meg Rowley
2:40
I'm sure they both do. I imagine that conversation will take place within a larger push by the union to get more money to players earlier in their careers. If the age-30 FA market continues to go like this one, they're really going to need to. How successfully they do that remains to be seen.
2:41
They've relinquished so much ground over the years. Getting it back is going to be painful.
Rooting for Dee
2:41
I find Dee Gordon to be one of the most likable players ever popped for PEDs. I'm a Dodgers fan and have continued rooting for him beyond his days with "my" team, including since his suspension. Should I feel bad about this?
Meg Rowley
2:41
I don't see why you would. He seems to be a delightful guy who does good work off the field and is a lot of fun to watch.
2:42
I wouldn't tell anyone how fussy they ought to feel about PEDs. I do not feel especially fussy about them.
Willie Calhoun's Big Ol' Butt
2:42
I am so excited to see what Willie Calhoun can do at the plate! What rookie(s) are you most excited to see in regular season MLB action this year?
Meg Rowley
2:43
Calhoun was a lot of fun during his call up last year, though we'll have to wait for more.
2:44
Hi sorry, my internet cut out for a moment. Very weird.
2:45
Otherwise Acuña
Dan
2:45
Is it possible that Shohei needs time in the minors to be an acceptable position player? Is there any way if his pitching is as good as expected there is positive value in getting him minor league at bats?
Meg Rowley
2:46
It is certainly possible he might have real work to do, and more at bats would help. But if his pitching is as good as expected, I'd be surprised if the Angels pass that up to further his potential as a two-way player. I'd find it more likely they do that for service time reasons, if they do it.
Charles Finley
2:47
Are LAA planning on giving up the DH to let SO hit?
Meg Rowley
2:47
I don't think so.
Mac Gwire
2:47
Jeff has hockey; August had basketball. Do you have a favorite sport to watch other than baseball?
Meg Rowley
2:47
I am still a football fan, though less and less every year as I feel more and more implicated by the sport.
2:48
My family's text chain is currently engaged in a spirited debate about whether we keep our season tickets for the Seahawks.
2:49
I am very excited for the NHL to come to Seattle. I loved going to hockey games when I was in Madison. Hockey live is such fun, though I may have to bug Jeff occasionally on some of the finer points.
Matt Klentak
2:49
Altuve Machado or Betts, pick one
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