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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 4/17/18
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Meg Rowley
12:00
Hello, and welcome to the chat!
Well-Beered Englishman
12:00
Would you rather cheer for a team that loses 100 games in the season, or a team that reaches the World Series but loses every WS game 25-0?
Meg Rowley
12:01
Well having been a fan of the 2008 and 2010 Mariners, a team that reaches the World Series and loses horribly. Mostly because my mom taught me I should try new things.
Albie Lopez
12:01
Are you worried about the early numbers from Chris Archer? Strikeouts are there and velocity seems within reasonable error bars. Think he rebounds and has a normal season?
Meg Rowley
12:03
I'm a little concerned. The walks aren't great. He's had a hard time locating in some of these starts. That the velocity hasn't dipped dramatically and that he is still generating swings and misses is why I'm not a lot concerned. It'll maybe probably straighten out to something more effective than this, but it would be great to see that happen soonish.
resumeman
12:03
Will you be updating the ATC projections for the Rest of Year projections, or will that just be the ZIPS/Steamer ones?
Meg Rowley
12:04
I have asked the boss and he says just Steamer, ZiPS and THE BAT
PTBNL
12:04
Price v Ohtani is must-see TV tonight even though the game starts at 10:05 ET
Meg Rowley
12:05
One thing you could consider doing is upending your whole life and leaving everyone and everything you hold dear and moving to the west coast, where I will be comfortably watching the game at 7:05.
But barring that, yes, I expect it will give you a good reason to be tired at work tomorrow.
Bubba
12:05
More Carson chats!
Meg Rowley
12:06
I am in favor, and you are in favor, but I suspect that they cause Carson literal physical pain, and that is probably an unreasonable thing for us to ask of him merely for our entertainment.
Also, Carson is a very busy guy who keeps all this splendor running.
Cronsky
12:06
What is the best case you can make for stats like wOBA and SIERA? My dad and grandf
Meg Rowley
12:07
I think when you're talking to folks who have relied on traditional stats and are suspicious of sabermetrics, it often helps to leave the math aside and talk about the concepts, at least in the beginning.
12:08
Maybe they find the formula intimidating. Maybe they have a hard time making that translate into what they are watching. But they are smart guys and they probably intuitively understand the idea behind wOBA that not all hits are created equal.
v2micca
12:08
Seriously, how strong do you have to be to snap off the bat at the handle, and still get enough on the pitch to send it into the bleachers?
Meg Rowley
12:09
So, so, so, so strong.
So strong.
The most strong.
I'm not sure we're talking enough about how good Harper's start has been, I guess because the Nats have sort of stumbled, but he's just been phenomenal and so, so, so strong.
PTBNL
12:10
Before opening day the Red Sox had a 40% chance to win the AL East - now they have a 61% chance. Are we comfortable saying their chances have increased that much based on a 13-2 start and a slow start for NYY?
Meg Rowley
12:11
I think so. We maybe undersold how tight that race was going to be. There's obviously still time for things to swing back New York's way, but banked wins are banked wins and the Red Sox pitching is appreciably better, especially with the Yankees bullpen having a rough go.
12:13
Still think it stays tightish (NYY's expected wins haven't really moved) but Boston has moved things for now.
Rougned Odorizzi
12:13
Man, Aaron Judge is for real, isn't he?
Meg Rowley
12:13
Both literally and figurative Quite Real
Pimp my Rhys
12:14
Do you think players who wear the C-flap get less respect among other players?
Meg Rowley
12:14
I don't think so.
A fastball to the face screws you up pretttty badly.
12:15
Maybe there are some self-proclaimed tough guys who think it's silly, but we shouldn't listen to them.
Not the Maddog
12:15
In 72 career games, Albies is hitting .296/.353/.514 good for a 129 wRC+. He's the youngest player in baseball and is listed at 5'9", 160lbs. Just wanted to say that he is amazing.
Meg Rowley
12:17
He is! He also has one of the biggest gaps between his wOBA and his xwOBA so he probably isn't quite this amazing, but he is amazing.
ummm..
12:17
Meg, life is weird, if I was a bowl of coleslaw and you a blanket we couldn't have a conversation
Meg Rowley
12:17
I'd be warmer, though. So pros and cons.
Webster
12:18
Will Jose Altuve hit a home run this season?
Meg Rowley
12:18
Hot Take Incoming: More than one!
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:18
Meg, you are the expert on baseball players getting angry. You might have seen Marisnick get pretty steamed after he got bodied by the ump on strike 2 in extras. How will this change once we get robot umps?
Meg Rowley
12:19
You still need a guy back there to announce the count and monitor plays at the plate, so not very much.
12:20
When I was at BP, I wrote about this. It isn't a reason not to do it (there are other real reasons not to do it) but one of the reasons I don't like the idea of going to an autozone is that you strip the home plate ump of the power to make decisions, but guys are still going to yell at him.
12:21
We yell at umps after replay decisions change, and they aren't the ones making the call. We are often monsters.
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