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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/20
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Sir Nerdlington
4:32
Which owner's lawn are we camping out on first? My pitchfork just came back from the shop.
Meg Rowley
4:32
I think there are some pretty reasonable concerns here, and pointing them out doesn't translate into an angry mob
also, please stay home!
ChrisDavis4Prez
4:33
If the players do end up taking a revenue share this season, what do you think the odds are that it's only a one-off and contracts are honored normally in 2021?
Meg Rowley
4:33
Depends entirely on the language of the agreement.
4:34
But once the precedent has been set, it will difficult to walk back.
There's a reason that, even in moments when the union's negotiations have frustrated us, the MLBPA hasn't budged on this before.
MSW
4:34
Would players have more PR success if they said something like "sure, we'll agree to a revenue split, but we need X,Y and Z in hazard pay"?
Meg Rowley
4:35
I don't think so. Asking for more money seems unlikely to go over well.
Trebek
4:36
Really is a nice man (my friend was on the show).
Meg Rowley
4:37
This is very nice to hear!
Big League Choo
4:37
Which MLB position would be most fun for a career? I think LF looks pretty chill. Definitely not catcher. That equipment looks hot and I'm not squatting all game. Pitcher sounds fun at first, but the bullpen has terrible sightlines and boy do they sure need to wrap their shoulders in a LOT of ice after games. That can't be healthy.
Meg Rowley
4:37
I would find all of them terrible and stressful. Trying to hit? Unthinkable! Pitching? Impossible!
Baseball is so, so hard.
Magic Kingdome
4:37
What is your favorite place to sit at the ballpark (let's exclude any premium, club, or suite seats)?
Meg Rowley
4:38
Depends on the ballpark - generally like to be to visualize the whole field if I can, which means being up, but otherwise down the open side of whichever hitter I'm most excited to see.
wily mo
4:39
me growley. also, whenever we finally get to have games with fans again, we're still all going to bring trashcans and bang on them whenever the astros are hitting, right? i just want to make sure we're all on the same page here
Meg Rowley
4:39
On the one hand, I wonder if the moment has passed. On the other hand, Ryan Braun still gets booed a lot on the road, so...
TKDC
4:40
Fangraphs covered teams that have the most to lose, but how about players that have the most to lose financially? For example, is Scherzer going to lose $35 million in salary/bonus and $15 million in future deferred money? Some of these backloaded contracts that are now in the backloaded portion are bad luck for those players.
Meg Rowley
4:40
One of those things that's perhaps a bit more interesting as a twitter thread than a piece, you know?
Sam
4:41
Given the emphasis on having players keep their distance on the field, do you think we will see any tangible impacts on the game (e.g. more steals because runners can't be held on as much)? Also which team/player do you think will come up with the most creative no-cobtact celebrations?
Meg Rowley
4:41
The guidelines allow for baserunners to be held on - the retreat it suggests is when the ball is not about to be put in play.
Magic Kingdome
4:42
If MLB cannot play until September, should they forget playing a regular season and just do a soccer-style tournament?  A one-off crazy tournament would seem to be a better deal than no baseball at all.
Meg Rowley
4:43
I think they'll be back before that, but yes, there's probably a point in September when you just accept the season is a loss and try to put together an amazing tournament.
Sir Nerdlington
4:43
If the owners maintain a take it or leave it approach to 2020, what odds do you put on a strike in 2021?
Meg Rowley
4:45
I think they're pretty low. But I also think the players have a fair amount of leverage here. I don't think the league or the owners want to jeopardize their national contracts/rev streams, even if they were bizarrely downplayed in their presentation to the union.
JoJo
4:45
Are you a believer in some of the injured SPs in a short season like Snell, Canning, Puk etc?
Meg Rowley
4:46
Was already a Snell and Puk believer, Canning I'm less sure on just because of how recent the injury was.
Brock
4:47
These are obviously extremes but owners get killed by the media for mega deals to guys like Pujols and Miggy.  Same thing with spending on a bunch on vets like the Rockies did with McGee, Davis, Shaw, and Desmond.  So then teams lock up guys like Acuna and Albies or Yelich to long term deals at reduced prices and get killed for "taking advantage" of the player.  I don't side with billionaires or millionaires.  I think everyone is out to get the best deal they can (and should).  But it does seem the criticism is always one sided by the media.  It's never that Pujols is overpaid and should retire because he's below replacement level and made enough for 10 lifetimes.  It's that the Braves are horrible for what they did to Albies, or that teams shouldn't manipulate service time even though the players signed the CBA that made it easy to do so.  I think that there is enough money for everyone and I would love for them to go behind closed doors, work it out, and have a 2020 season.
Meg Rowley
4:50
Couple of things here. I don't think you'll find many people generally, and specifically at FanGraphs, who thought Desmond's deal was or is good, or that Pujols is still playing at the level that justifies everyday play. There is enough money to go around but ownership isn't typically keen to share more than they have to. Should the players have negotiated a different CBA? Yes! But ownership should also be "held responsible" for getting exactly what they wanted. They designed the system. They created the incentives.
Isolated Thinker
4:50
Unlikely to happen, and probably the worst case scenario, but how do you think the recent agreement handles this happening:  An entire team, including all potential backups, needs to be quarantined for 2 weeks because of an internal outbreak.
Meg Rowley
4:51
Imagine they have to concede their games at a minimum and there is sure to be some shut down, because you'd have to test pretty broadly.
Andy
4:51
Hi Meg, I love Fangraphs! You guys do a great job! Why do you believe they're coming back this season? Because I believe 100% they don't, due to the owners trying to undercut the players along with their public media ploys, and just the politics in society surrounding this epidemic.
Meg Rowley
4:52
I think there is just too much money to be lost. I'm not saying a resumption of play is necessarily advisable, or even sustainable, but I do think it will happen.
Jason N
4:52
What happens to graduating college seniors that don’t get drafted this year, don’t get signed for $20k after the draft, but are good enough to play MiLB?
Meg Rowley
4:53
They become salesmen or office workers or try to catch on with an indy league team.
The amount of baseball talent that is going to leave the sport because of this bums me out pretty profoundly.
Nate
4:54
I don't understand how people think a WS title this year would be tainted. As you said, if you want to debate the logistics/how ok it is for them start playing again in general...that's one thing. But if your team wins the WS...are you not going to be jumping around/doing cartwheels for the next year because of it? Do you taint teams that won during 156 game seasons or before extended playoff rounds began? Just dumb...I feel like people like to complain and over analyze these things too much
Meg Rowley
4:54
In fairness, there is a big difference between 156 games and 82. To say it is exactly the same is silly.
But I think it will still feel great.
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