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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 5/5/2021
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Meg Rowley
4:00
Hi all, and thanks for stopping by. Let's get rolling on the chat.
Magic Kingdome
4:00
Who starts Game 1 of the 2021 ALCS for the Mariners?
Meg Rowley
4:01
All right now settle down.
I encourage everyone to take joy where they can find it and revel in good starts and also, not set yourself up for disappointment.
Padres Offense
4:02
Pls give the magic hitting juice. I need.
Meg Rowley
4:05
If it makes you feel any better, they are slightly underperforming their baseruns but yeah, it's been an unwelcome swoon. I don't expect it to be a sustained swoon, but yeah, would be good for Machado and Cronenworth to get going.
Hosmer and Wil Myers outhitting those guys, just like we all expected.
Carl
4:05
I remember when fangraphs was good.
Meg Rowley
4:05
I also remember today!
Han Soto
4:05
What's your favorite pizza topping?
Meg Rowley
4:06
Pineapple and jalapeños.
4:07
You might not like those things. You might like other things. I am glad you like those other things while I like my thing.
Dayton Moore Talking Head
4:07
It's July 31.  The Royals are 4 games over .500, 3 GB in the division, and 1.5 GB for a wild card.  Do you buy, sell, or hold?
Meg Rowley
4:08
I think they buy for sure - they've shown they believe themselves to be ready to contend and if that's the math come July, I think they buy or at least see who they can promote (they don't really play service time games but do have some 40-man crunch looming).
Steven
4:09
J-Rod assignment feel a little light to you?
Meg Rowley
4:12
It didn't jump out to me, no. I should preface this by saying that it's really hard to know how to interpret assignments this year given the lost 2020 season - some of the normal progressions we might see for top players are going to feel heavy because of the lost time. I think High-A for a 20-yea-old to start the season strikes me as age appropriate. I don't imagine he ends the year there.
Dayton Moore Talking Head
4:12
You are invited to do a full inning guest spot on a TV broadcast.  Which broadcast crew do you want?  It can be any current local or national team.
Meg Rowley
4:13
Can I pick the Nerdcast? I'd like to pick the Nerdcast. They seem to have fun and think about the game the same way I do.
Kikuchi
4:14
Have you ever named a small furry creature after me?
Meg Rowley
4:15
No. I feel weird about naming pets after specific, real people.
Guest
4:15
Will Cody Bellinger or Christian Yelich end up playing more this year?
Meg Rowley
4:17
What a depressing question! My instinct, not knowing anything special here is to say Bellinger, despite Yelich having played in more games already, because it seems like once he's truly mending he should hopefully be good to go, whereas back stuff can linger.
Aging: what a ripoff!
Nat
4:17
Re hit by pitches and lack of balls in play: here's my new idea. Deaden the ball, shrink the zone,and move the batters box away from the plate. More balls in play, fewer homers, inventivizes oppo approach.
Meg Rowley
4:18
So you want to both make the zone smaller and put hitters further away from it while trying to cut back on the thing that is holding up league-wide offense?
Guest
4:19
How much does the MLB batting average typically improve after April?
Meg Rowley
4:20
I don't have specific numbers in front of me, though I do know that mostly because of weather, offensive numbers experience an early season swoon and then tend to heat up as the weather does. Of course, we'll have to see given the new ball.
I'd say it would be nice to have a consistent ball year-to-year that we really get to know but then again, making new friends in your 30s is hard.
Chaz
4:20
Do you think an Olympic level sprinter, with no baseball background, could help as pinch runner on a playoff roster?
Meg Rowley
4:21
I am very delighted to have an opportunity to share this Sam Miller gem as an answer to your question: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/22979/pebble-hunting-b...
Bobby
4:22
How concerned should I be about deGrom's setback?  He's the only sure thing on that rotation.  Still don't trust Stroman or Walker and Carrasco and Syndergaard are both on the IL.  Peterson is basically a rookie and Lucchessi is just bad.
Meg Rowley
4:23
I mean, it isn't great news, though it could be quite a bit worse so I would say somewhat? Your best pitcher had to miss a start because his body wouldn't let him. Not good! But the part of his body that was an issue wasn't his elbow or should. Not as bad as it could be!
Vader
4:24
OK Miss Mariner, best guess as to when we see Gilbert and then Kelenic?
Are your Mariners going to go closer by committee or does Graveman have more value coming in earlier and Montero gets most the saves?
Meg Rowley
4:27
Not sure what merits the accusatory tone here (They truly aren't my Mariners! I didn't do it!) but for Gilbert and Kelenic, I expect both get some real Triple-A run but might be up later this summer (post June, pre-September) if all goes well and the club isn't wildly out of it. As for the bullpen, they've seemed appropriately keen to deploy Graveman in high leverage moments and I expect they'll continue to have that dictate his usage more than the inning it happens to be.
Michael
4:28
Has any team had its playoff odds tanked by injuries as much as the White Sox? First Jiménez and now Robert... it's hard to be optimistic right now.
Meg Rowley
4:30
It's pretty dramatic - Robert alone was worth -18.5% for their divisional odds per ZiPS
Dan's piece on this is worth reading if you want to know more although maybe you don't! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-white-sox-just-lost-their-most-importa...
brad penny for your thoughts
4:31
having a bud light seltzer?
Meg Rowley
4:31
I am not. I am working.
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