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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/19
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Meg Rowley
2:00
Hi all, and welcome to the chat -- allow me a few minutes to schedule a piece and then we'll get started
2:09
Ok, I am back.
Thanks for your patience
Lunar verLander
2:09
Do you think baseball players (on average) have more fun at their jobs than non-baseball players (again, on average)? I know it's their job & they get evaluated based on their performance just like non-baseball players, but they ARE doing something they've wanted to do since they were a kid, so that has to contribute to it somewhat, yeah?
Meg Rowley
2:11
I think probably, yes. I think all jobs have things that are not fun (I love my job very, very much and I have weeks where a beer on Friday evening is quite welcome) but the highs of getting to do a thing you've worked toward forever have to be pretty great. Now, I'm sure there is variation year to year. I don't imagine anyone playing for the Orioles is having as much fun as anyone on the Astros. But it's a pretty great job, even though it is a deeply weird job, and a hard one.
Ryan
2:12
I know they can't really discuss their jobs, but do you get the feeling that Carson and Jeff are enjoying what they do?
Meg Rowley
2:12
My sense from chatting with them is yes. Which makes me happy because I care about each of them as friends, but also sad, because it makes much less likely they come home to FanGraphs dot com.
Xolo
2:13
It seems like whenever a manager is fired, 99% of the time it's written off as the front office scapegoating him but when is it actually justified?
Meg Rowley
2:14
I don't know that it is as high as 99%. Being unable to work with the rest of the organization in a constructive way seems like an actual problem, as would repeated strategic errors resulting from bad process.
And of course, a lot of being a manager is actual personnel stuff we never see.
Wes
2:14
I had a dream last week that Dan was hired by the Marlins. I have not seen a post from Dan since then and he did not show up for his chat yesterday. (I don't do Twitter.) Please reassure me that he is on a vacation.
Meg Rowley
2:14
Dan's just on vacation. Rest easy.
Chimichanga
2:15
Way too early 2020 postseason predictions.  Your thoughts?

AL East:  Yankees
AL Central:  Indians
AL West:  Astros
AL WC1:  Red Sox
AL WC2:  Twins

NL East:  Braves
NL Central:  Cubs
NL West:  Padres
NL WC1:  Dodgers
NL WC2:  Reds
Meg Rowley
2:17
You're overly optimistic about the Padres (and I say that as someone who really likes what SD is doing), and I'm not sure I would take the Reds as the other Central team to make it. Also curious to see what an A's team with healthy pitching the whole season can manage.
Hall of Famer
2:18
Where am I throwing the ceremonial first pitch of the World Series?
Meg Rowley
2:19
Chavez Ravine
JustCurious
2:21
Is the chat schedule on the home page still accurate? Obviously not complaining about free chats, just trying to figure out when to avoid meetings at work
Meg Rowley
2:22
Mostly -- there are sometime changes due to travel or vacation, but we try to announce those on twitter.
Angels in Outfield
2:23
Did you know that the Angels only have commitments to 5 players (plus one option) in 2020? And only 3 players (Trout, Pujols, Upton) in 2021? What are the odds they can use that crazy flexibility to contend in a couple of years?
Meg Rowley
2:24
I think they are painfully aware of how bad it would be to waste Trout, and have shown a willingness to spend in the past, so my money is on them using theirs.
Trent
2:24
Are the As or Rays more likely to make the playoffs?
Meg Rowley
2:25
Rays -- could shift if the A's pitching coming back is amazing, but Rays. But also? It'll be close.
Nolan
2:26
Will Corey Seager or Aaron Judge ever equal or surpass their rookie WAR totals?
Meg Rowley
2:27
Greater confidence that Seager does, mostly because the bar is easier to clear, but also because, even though they've both had injuries, I'm not sure how well a body as big as Judge's ages.
Nahtan
2:27
If you had to start a team from scratch tomorrow with either Gavin Lux or Wander Franco as your blue chip MI prospect, would you go for Lux's present day potential, or Franco's higher insane(r) upside?
Meg Rowley
2:30
Franco -- everything is plus, he plays short, and he's so stinkin' young. Lux is a very good player, don't get me wrong, but Franco looks like a truly superlative prospect. Near-perfect.
Arthur Kinney
2:30
Can the Indians make the Wild Card Game with Hand continuing to struggle the rest of the season
Meg Rowley
2:33
Yeah, I think so -- the starters coming back are the real difference, though the contrast between Cleveland's bullpen vs. say New York's over the weekend was at times stark
Sanford
2:33
Is the NL Cy Young Ryu's to lose so long as he keeps his ERA under 2.00? Any chance Scherzer gets Kershaw'd by missing too much time? Does deGrom have a case?
Meg Rowley
2:35
No, I don't think so -- the ERA will sway some voters, but there are plenty of stats where Scherzer has the edge, and the WAR gap isn't trivial. It'll depend when he comes back and how well he pitches (I mean, duh) but it's a gigantic innings gap, either.
Other Ryan
2:36
Between the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs, which fanbase should be the most upset if they miss the playoffs?
Meg Rowley
2:37
Should be? I guess the Cardinals just based on the drought, such as it is.
Stros fans errywhere
2:37
What to make of Correa leaving last night with more 'Back discomfort'?
Meg Rowley
2:38
Human bodies are fickle, and often cruel, though if any team can absorb a hit like that...
Mr Cub
2:38
The little league classic is exactly what the cubs needed to get their mojo back, right?!
Meg Rowley
2:38
I remain disappointed that the Little League Classic does involve major leaguers playing little leaguers.
Trevor
2:38
Should the Astros be interested in extending Carlos Correa?  Or does his injury history pose too great a risk?
Meg Rowley
2:39
Interested, absolutely -- they are going to have some tricky decisions to make assuming a not-huge (though still sizable) payroll, but yeah, they absolutely should be. Some of these injuries have been pretty weird.
The IL
2:40
What single injured and likely to return player has, in your view, the biggest impact on a team's october chances? Kluber (that new injury doesn't seem good), Carrasco, Correa (who seems hurt again), about 5 yankees? Glasnow?
Meg Rowley
2:40
I'll take any of the Cleveland starters.
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