JotCast | Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat

Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 8/28/18

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Meg Rowley

2:22

I feel like I'm forgetting one.

Opening Wide

2:23

Your Hollywood namesake is being beaten in the box office by some rom-com set in Singapore. This is despite Jason Statham and his screen presence. From your personal perspective, is this a good thing (fewer jokes your way about the film), or a bad thing (missing a good summer conversation-starter)?

Meg Rowley

2:24

I think that movie being bad (though I think it is still doing pretty well?) has been great. It has made twitter better. I think Crazy Rich Asians doing well is great for movies and fans of movies. Any time a movie like that does well, it makes it easier to make more movies with diverse casts. That's rad.

Mike O

2:24

So who won the Tulo trade? None of the pieces Col got back have turned into anything and Toronto got 4 WAR out of him. But at the same time that contract looks terrible going forward

Meg Rowley

2:25

It doesn't look great, but it is also just money.

I think it is one of those trades with no real winners, because you know, it wasn't great, but also, this sort of injury-related drop off is hard to predict.

Perennial Ballboy Tryout

2:26

How do we fix reliever WAR?

Meg Rowley

2:26

As my mom would say, "Say more about that."

Garrett

2:27

Feels like the Mariners have been 3-5 games back for a month now. They aren’t going to make the playoffs huh?

Meg Rowley

2:27

It's a lot of games to make up in a pretty short period of time.

2:28

Not impossible but we have their playoff odds at around 17%... that feels about right.

When Jhoulys Expect It

2:28

On a scale of 1-10, how badly did the Pirates screw up the trade deadline?

Meg Rowley

2:28

Very confused by what they are doing just generally.

John

2:28

Are the Angels going to go all-in this offseason? They have Trout for a couple years and a lot of money, but nothing to show for it yet

Meg Rowley

2:30

I don't think they can ever not try while they have Trout, and as you note, they have money to spend. I expect they'll try pretty hard.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:30

Is Cash really a down ballot MOY contender? For once we actually have a manager breaking new ground with visible results and buy-in, you think people will give it to Bob Melvin for making the playoffs when we didn't expect them to? Cash has done so much with so little; giving it to Melvin feels like giving the MVP to the guy with the best triple crown numbers. Apologies if you had other people in mind besides Melvin.

Meg Rowley

2:31

I think a lot of people will look at Cora, actually but I think you're underestimating how bad that A's rotation is. It isn't so dissimilar a profile to Cash. His moves just come at a more traditional time.

2:32

I also wonder if folks won't look at the opener as an analytics driven strategy, and discount Cash's role there.

Snell's the CY

2:32

Assume Snell wins 19 and has a sub 2.00 era, you still think Sale gets it if he only wins 15?

Meg Rowley

2:33

Snell has an ERA in the two's and a FIP in the three's.

He has a higher BB% and a lower K% than Sale.

2:34

I don't think wins are going to be what matters here.

Brian CashGod

2:34

Who's leading FanGraphs in CHAR? (CHats Above Replacement, courtesy of Dan's chat yesterday)

And I maintain there is no such thing as a replacement level chat, they're all great

Meg Rowley

2:34

I dunno, sometimes I get really distracted by our leaderboards in the middle of researching a question.

Lunar verLander

2:35

Is there some sort of beef between the Mariners and the Padres? The Mariners Twitter page just posted something about a "Vedder Cup", and I have no idea what that means.

Meg Rowley

2:36

Eddie Vedder is in Pearl Jam. Eddie Vedder is from San Diego. Fight?

Leon

2:37

Do you think WAR calculations will see a major overhaul this offseason, particularly in the defensive realm? It seems as though defensive shifting has reached a point of muddying those waters pretty significantly.

Meg Rowley

2:37

I'm not sure how immediate an overhaul there will be but I do think the question and concern is a good, valid one.

2:38

We all made a number of assumptions about how defense worked. Some of those don't work anymore, and we have a bunch of new information at our disposal.

Tom

2:39

Thor has looked pretty human this year. Any insights? Should we drop our expectations, or is he as good a bet as anyone to win the Cy next year?

Meg Rowley

2:41

Setting aside the weird-ass hand, foot and mouth disease thing, he did have an injury early in the season. He's also played in front of some shaky defense. I think he'll be fine. The velocity is still there, so if he walks guys a little less and is healthy, I'm not too concerned.

Outside of the Mets of it all.

HappyFunBall

2:41

"MLB has recommended that we begin selling tickets for the 2018 postseason" is just about the least excited I think I have ever heard a marketing department be about their post-season prospects ...

Meg Rowley

2:42

I think avoiding the appearance that they are overestimating their own position and asking for more cash is probably pretty important in moments like this.

Dann

2:42

The Cubs do not feel like a team that's four games ahead of everyone else in their league, but here we are in the last week of August, and the rest of the NL seems even more flawed. If they continue putting distance between themselves and STL, is it worth bearing down and going for every last win in hopes of catching some of those AL teams for theoretical home field against not-Boston? Or rest up the guys and figure, hey, Schwarber/Murphy is a perfect DH option anyway?

Meg Rowley

2:43

I don't expect that theoretical home field is going to do much to drive decision making. There are so many things to fret about before they get there.

Peter Alonso

2:43

Hi Meg! Are the Mets going to call me up in September?? I have obliterated AAA pitching recently

Meg Rowley

2:44

Bad news, buddy.