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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 8/7/18
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Meg Rowley
2:00
Hello, and welcome to the chat!
2:01
After a couple weeks of swapping stuff around this should (*should*) be the normal chat time now, which will avoid us having two chats at the same time.
Mike from Tempe
2:01
Is there any chance of getting minor league splits into the Fangraphs stat pages? Only reason I still use BR, and I'd rather stick with FG.
Meg Rowley
2:01
I will ask. Also, B-R is great and very deserving of your clicks!
john cale
2:01
rougned odor has a 225 wRC+ in the second half. maybe 24 year olds can still figure things out, after all.
Meg Rowley
2:02
Sure they can! They're bright young things full of promise! We've also seen Odor be good for a stretch and then just be dreadful before.
It isn't like he doesn't have value. It's just that when it doesn't work it is so, so bad.
John Dink
2:03
Meg, I would like to ask you a question about Ichiro Suzuki. Is that okay?
Meg Rowley
2:03
If it is a bad question, I just won't post it. My power over the queue is absolute, after all.
Bork
2:03
Which NY player goes down next to hand, foot, and mouth disease? Also like Thor and Happ, my 18 mo old had HFMD. He is available to come out of the pen if needed.
Meg Rowley
2:04
Does one acquire immunity to hand, foot, and mouth disease, like you do with chicken pox?
Hick Rahn
2:04
Will White Sox fans be thanking me for squeezing another year out of Eloy and Kopech...7 years from now?
Meg Rowley
2:05
Fans have both short memories and a tendency to side with front offices over labor, so I'd put your odds at 50/50.
Yoan Moncada
2:05
Is my K rate a killer?  Or, can IO possibly turn into Javy Baez?
Meg Rowley
2:06
You're 23! You can do a great many things. The good news is that Moncada's is capable of being a high K%/high impact guy.
2:07
In March/April he had an almost 40% K rate and a 140 wRC+.
2:08
So some of this is going to always be a matter of what he does with the contact he does make. But there is obviously a point at which the balance tips and in this month so far, he's striking out in almost 50% of his PAs. That's.... bad.
Bort
2:08
The Astros should probably just shift McCullers to the bullpen permanently, right?
Meg Rowley
2:10
I have to think it is something they are constantly evaluating. He can be so devastating when he starts. Hitters are just totally bumfuzzled by that curveball. But losing him for long stretches is suboptimal. I don't think it is a necessity just yet, but it'll be something they consider.
CompGuy
2:10
Question about the Osuna deal.  Society (generally speaking) rips on the Astros for trading for him.  But society did not rip on the Jays nearly as hard for not dropping him.  Had he simply resumed playing for the Jays, there would not be nearly the outrage that currently exists.  Osuna taking the field as an Astro or as a Jay are equivalent outcomes - an accused domestic abuser is employed by a baseball team.  Yet the two generate vastly different reactions.  Thoughts?
Meg Rowley
2:11
Well first, I think the Jays did receive scorn for their actions around him. Their messaging was pretty bad. And you're right, they didn't just drop him. But they, unlike the Astros, also had him already. And in a trade market that was lousy with relievers, the Astros made the active choice to acquire Osuna, and prioritize his postseason value over this awful thing he was suspended for.
2:12
Lots of stuff can be bad at once, but I think the opprobrium was reasonably distributed here, and then Astros made it worse by appearing incapable of talking about it without sounding like misleading ghouls.
Danny
2:13
Hi Meg! Depressed Padres fan here grasping at straws. Do you think this plan to kickstart the window of contention by moving prospects for MLB talent (like the rumored Archer deal) is smart or dumb? If you were AJ Preller, what would your offseason plans be?
Meg Rowley
2:14
They know how close the guys in their system are better than I do, but I don't hate it when teams that are very close try to get things going a little early. They have the benefit of an insanely deep system, so they can afford a little action.
2:15
I've said it here before, but when you find yourself out ahead of where you thought you would be and you look at your roster and find [insert Very Good Player], it's so great, because then you have one of those guys!
Idea
2:15
Due to the relative flat draft value curve, the long lead time between selection and production, and volatility of the playoffs, couldn't MLB "fix" tanking by doing the draft in order of the standings for non-playoff teams without drastically affecting parity? (ex, best record to not make the playoffs is the first pick, worst record is 20, playoff teams are 21-30)
Meg Rowley
2:16
It's definitely one strategy that has been suggested, and I think an interesting one. I'm reticent to link that sort of change to the draft because [hotish take alert] I'd rather do away with the draft entirely, but within the current system, this is an interesting solution.
CamdenWarehouse
2:16
I feel like we just chatted with you?
Meg Rowley
2:16
Recently! I promise to stay in my normal Tuesday slot for at least the next few weeks, so that we stay on track.
Tyler
2:17
Have you ever gone back to see how good or bad the baseball writers have done on MVP voting?  I will give you a clue it is really bad.  After looking at it I do not think it is fair to use MVP awards as a criteria for enshrinement.
Meg Rowley
2:17
I don't know many people who would disagree with you, at least as an exclusive measure of Hall of Fame worthiness.
2:18
I'd like to think that both Hall of Fame voters and MVP voters are getting better at both because the BBWAA membership is smarter about stats generally now, though.
Billy Beane
2:18
Hi Meg! Do you think my boys now have a chance of catching the Astros and winning the AL West? And do you think Mike Fiers is actually going to make us any better?
Meg Rowley
2:19
Not really and yes. Your rotation is Very Shaky. Mike Fiers isn't amazing at anything (except having a very punable name), but he's serviceable and provides some important depth.
Bo
2:20
If the Nationals fall out of contention in the next couple weeks, what are the odds a waiver deal for Harper actually happens? Less than 10%?
Meg Rowley
2:20
I'd say less than 10% but then again, I also didn't think the Verlander deal would happen.
What a terrible feeling that would be for Nats fans.
2:21
Also Harper just hit a Very Dingery Dinger. Oh boy.
Bread Gardner
2:21
Unlike the rest of Yankees Universe, I am *not* panicking. I am merely advocating reactionary, overcompensating changes that would disrupt the team at its weakest and leave us in the least tenable possible position in both the short and long terms.
Meg Rowley
2:22
My parents have taught me that delighting in the suffering of others is very bad and I shouldn't do it, so I will say is, that you guys are likely to be just fine.
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