JotCast | Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat

Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/19

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Meg Rowley

2:00

Hi all -- welcome to the chat!

2:01

Let's get this bit of awfulness out of the way...

Vander

2:01

Vazquez... Just... *sigh*... Please say he's going to be out of baseball for good... Please.

BlueJayMatt

2:01

If you were in charge of the Pirates what would you do with Vazquez?

Dr. Frank Jobe

2:01

So uhhh Felipe Velasquez eh?

awg

2:01

Felipe Vazquez 😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬

Epic Mike Francesca

2:01

Will Vasquez every play again?

Meg Rowley

2:03

It's an awful thing that hopefully (not sure that's quite the right word but) won't be in the Pirates hands at all, but yeah, this is one where the right thing to do seems pretty cut and dry. I hope that his victim is getting the support needed to move forward and recover.

Twinkie

2:03

This is the year the Twins finally vanquish the Yankees in the playoffs, right? ....Right?

Meg Rowley

2:06

In terms of their pythag and baseruns, they're closer squads than you might expect even just looking at their records, and of course, anything can happen in a short series, but as New York will have home field if they get the Twins (and who knows, they could outpace the Astros) and the Twins have taken some hits, so they wouldn't be my favorites going in.

Cubbie Blues

2:06

To what extent do you think players get in their own heads? I know major leaguers have been selected for performing under pressure, but it still feels like some players have more skill when it comes to mental control than others.

Meg Rowley

2:08

I would imagine that even within the major league player population, which probably shows advanced aptitude for that sort of thing, there's a real range, and that individual players even exhibit range over the course of their careers or a single season. How much it manifests in on-field performance is harder to untangle.

2:09

Players who are struggling with the mental side probably struggled on the field first -- in a lot of ways it's just a rational response to stimulus. Maybe something is happening at home that lowers your baseline ability to bob and weave with that stuff.

Cubbie Blues

2:10

Who's the player whose value as a person/moral value most outstrips their value on the field?

Meg Rowley

2:11

This is a really difficult question to answer because I don't know these dudes -- meaning there are hidden gems and also, some stinkers we don't know about. I think if I could pick two dudes to be in a club house to help show their younger fellows how to be professionals and decent humans, Adam Jones and Hunter Pence are up there.

Dombrowski's Ghsot

2:11

How do you foresee the Red Sox dealing with their front office situation this offseason? Do you think they hire internally now that Hazen is locked up in Arizona?

Meg Rowley

2:12

I'm sure they'll go through a search -- no harm at all in potentially availing yourself of talent outside the org. I'm sure their internal quartet knew that would be part of this.

Matt

2:13

Should Marcus Semien at least get a few AL MVP votes? If you are one of there "where would the team be without him" people

Meg Rowley

2:13

He should definitely garner down ballot consideration, and I imagine that he will.

2:15

He's had a great season. The size of it depends on the metric you're using, but his defensive turnaround the last two years remains one of my favorite later career development stories.

Billy Beane

2:16

Hey Meg, if and when baseball expands to 32 teams, how would you prefer they divvy up the divisions? I think going east/west like basketball makes sense for scheduling in each league and then just doing a 1-5 ranking and ignoring divisons for postseason seeding. Then we would not get situations like last year where the Yankees and A's are both vastly superior to every team in the Central, but still have to play a one game play-in while Cleveland gets a full series.

Meg Rowley

2:18

I don't imagine ownership will be keen to give up on divisions (which isn't a reason not to, just a substantial obstacle), but yes, a geographic realignment seems like something to consider. I think having a limited slate of interleague stuff is still good because it's nice for fans of teams on the west coast to get to see east teams and vice versa, but yeah, some of this travel is pretty goofy.

BlueJayMatt

2:18

If you could create two new franchises, where would you put them?

Meg Rowley

2:19

I like the idea of Charlotte getting a team. There's appetite for the game, it's a good companion to other leagues in the area. So there and Montreal.

Wicho, Jr.

2:20

What's the real benefit in going with an established manager over a new guy? What does Girardi get from his ten years of managing that a supposedly sharp baseball mind, like Espada or Ibañez (to name two), doesn't have?

Meg Rowley

2:21

Managing people is a skill. It's one that you have to practice at, like anything else, and while it's the part of the job we see the least directly, it's incredibly important. Now experience doesn't always mean that goes well. But I think there's value there.

Nolan

2:22

As a Reds fan, my experience with Chapman makes me think that the Pirates--having declined to trade Vasquez at the peak of his value--will now trade him at the absolute nadir of his value for nearly nothing in return; Vasquez will then reestablish his value as a dominant closer with his new team; and that new team will trade a half season of Vasquez for an all-star shortstop. Is this plausible, or has being a Reds fan just left me bitter and cynical about trades?

Meg Rowley

2:24

I think that being cynical about how this stuff is generally a smart default position unfortunately, but at least from what we know so far (which, granted this is pretty new) the facts of this case may well take that option away from the Pirates. I don't say that to diminish Chapman's circumstances, but this case seems to be materially different.

Bring Back Jeff

2:24

Well, Meg. It's been a week and I find myself in the same law class during your chat. You have failed to save me.

Meg Rowley

2:25

I invited you to save yourself. Sometimes all we need to be happy is permission granted by circumstance.

Nate

2:25

How about them Brewers? They've got the favorable schedule down the stretch, Cubs and Cardinals have 7 more games against each other yet too! Do you think they've got a reasonable chance?

Meg Rowley

2:27

A reasonable chance? Yes. We have them with 40ish% playoff odds, I believe, though much of that is Wild Card odds. I think the Cards still take that division, despite a harder schedule. But if they do so, it comes at the Cubs' expense, so that's good news for you.

ChrisSabo'sGoggles

2:27

Best record in 2022: Orioles, Tigers, Royals, or Marlins?

Meg Rowley

2:27

Marlins.

Mostly on the strength of the farm.

Guest

2:28

Trout still wins MVP you think?

Meg Rowley

2:30

Yes, I think so. Now, as Jay noted in his piece on this, we haven't really had a player who has both been injured and played for a bad team (Betts last year was hurt but uhhh the Red Sox did fine), but I still think it goes to Trout.

Severino and Betances

2:30

We picked a good month to return.

Meg Rowley

2:30

Indeed.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

2:30

Are you ever looking at a MLB organization and thinking "yeah, like 60% MAGAheads here."

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