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MLBTR Chat: 3/29/23
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Anthony Franco
6:52
He's out of minor league options, which is why the A's traded him now. Can't go to Triple-A without clearing waivers
So yeah, he'll break camp as a bench outfielder -- no real reason to give up a minor league pitcher just to try to run him through waivers -- but they'll have to weigh that roster spot over the course of the season as injuries come up
Autumn
6:53
For each league: What team's postseason odds do you think are being most underrated? Most overrated?
Anthony Franco
6:53
I'll use PECOTA's playoff odds for this one
6:54
Yankees at 94% feels really high to me. I think they're a playoff team but I'm not at "it would absolutely stun me if they somehow missed" level. Guess I like Boston a little more than 19% but there's no glaring team in the AL I'm much more bullish on than the projections
6:55
In the NL, I like STL more than 54% and Milwaukee below 65% for related reasons. Probably a little lower than 72% on Philadelphia given the injuries
Jeff
6:56
Any scenario,  where the Nats can finish ahead of Miami?  2019 seems like a faded memory.
Anthony Franco
6:56
I wouldn't call it likely but it's not impossible. Baltimore ended up above Boston last year, that stuff can happen
6:57
Probably requires Miami to suffer a bunch of rotation injuries
Chet Lemons
6:57
What are the chances of an Ian Happ extension? With the recent (puzzling terms)  Hoerner extension, will the Cubs look to lock in Happ, or let him walk like Contreras and go with Davis in LF next year.
Anthony Franco
6:58
Yeah I can't figure out the Hoerner extension. Happ's in a different bucket as an impending FA obviously, cost is going to much higher in his case
6:59
I'd have guessed they got it done at the start of Spring Training and still lean that way if they're willing to keep talks going into April. Feels like they'd have to beat Benintendi money (5/$75MM) to do it
Analytics
7:00
History dictates that teams that make a big jump tend to regress. Can you see the Orioles avoiding that trend? If so what will be the difference?
Anthony Franco
7:01
I don't think they'll be as good as they were last year. A lot of their success was built on strong showings from depth starters and a very good bullpen, both of which are going to be hard to sustain for multiple season
7:02
The argument for optimism is that even if those areas of the roster take a step back, you're getting full seasons from Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez should be in the majors before long. That's going to offset some of the ground they're losing in other areas obviously
7:04
But ultimately I think the pitching staff is a little light to get this team into the mid-80s in wins. Considering how little they did this offseason, it doesn't seem like the front office fully buys them as a contender either (even as they've said otherwise)
7:05
Alright that's all I have time for today. I'm taking over site coverage from Darragh now
Thanks for all the questions tonight! As always, sorry about the stuff I couldn't address. If you want to throw anything else at me, I'm on Twitter @affranco10 and happy to take questions there
7:06
I also do weekly chats exclusive to Front Office subscribers on Friday afternoons. The queues are a lot smaller so I get to the majority of questions in those
Memberships also come with posts from Steve and myself on various topics. We're sending out season predictions from the staff tomorrow (playoff teams, World Series matchup, award picks)
If you want to find out more about the memberships, that's available here
Have a good night! Enjoy the games!
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