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MLBTR Chat: 5/10/23
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Anthony Franco
6:30
There are positives in any season, even one as bad as Oakland is having. Some intriguing offensive players even though I don't see any of them as a budding star. The pitching has been atrocious as you mentioned, though. Have to get more out of the Muller and Waldichuk types
RedsFan
6:30
Infield of CES/India/McLain/EDLC by July. Could we compete sooner thanwe
Anthony Franco
6:32
2025 feels reasonable for the Reds. Don't think the pitching depth is there for a return to contention next year but there's a good base of young talent and they'll have to spend a little bit over the next couple offseasons since Hunter Greene's the only player on the books
Connor⚾️
6:32
If a team falls so far out of contention will they wait til deadline time to trade or can they move soon? Or prices too high?
Anthony Franco
6:34
We get the occasional meaningful trade in June but it's usually into July before teams start meaningfully selling. Even if you know you're not competing, there are a bunch of other teams who are on the fence about their deadline priorities right now who could have more interest in your player closer to the deadline than they do right now
Red Sox 6 hole
6:34
Who’s playing SS for us in the playoffs….yea, that’s right, the playoffs in ‘23
Anthony Franco
6:35
I'm not there yet on the Red Sox but if they do get in, feels like it's in part because Trevor Story came back for the second half and played really well
Oh Yea
6:35
Tigers won another series today.  Seems like we're fine as long as we are not playing AL East teams.  We have a legit chance to win our division or have I been drinking too much Kool-Aid?
Anthony Franco
6:36
I don't think they're a legitimate playoff contender. It's still a bottom five lineup in the majors
6:37
Would love to be wrong -- unpredictability is fun and Tigers' fans have been waiting a long time for hope -- but I don't see it with this offense
Gadzooks
6:37
Who do you think could be a surprise deadline buyer? Think Cincinnati in 2019 or Texas last year.
Anthony Franco
6:39
Texas didn't do much at the deadline last year but I think the general idea behind the question is for a team that's not competitive right now but adds a controllable player for next season and beyond
6:40
Which is a really interesting one. I'll probably give this more thought and spin it off into a full post closer to the deadline but my initial thoughts are the Cubs and Pirates, maybe the Giants too
6:41
Could see all those teams falling out of real contention by July but looking into ways to add -- controllable starting pitching for Chicago and Pittsburgh, probably a bat for SF -- to the '24 roster because they feel they're not far off
Paul
6:41
Suppose this is who Soto is now and he remains that way through 2024. An above average hitter, but no Ted Williams 2.0. Does he get a $400 million offer?
Anthony Franco
6:43
2023 Soto still has a 134 wRC+. The on-base is still elite, the average and power are fine but unexceptional. He'd be a 26-year-old corner outfielder who's good for around 4-5 wins annually
6:44
I don't think that's enough to get him to $400MM. Over $300MM still but it's probably more like Devers+ money than "the largest non-Ohtani contract of all time"
David
6:45
If Bellinger keeps it up, can he land an eight-figure contract?
Anthony Franco
6:46
Nine figures? Yeah, I think a full-season of Bellinger hitting around .291/.366/.543 with plus center field defense puts him back above $100MM pretty easily
6:47
Power hasn't come back the way it was at MVP form but the strikeouts are down. Glove and baserunning are an excellent floor, he'd be entering his age-28 season. I think it's a reasonable question whether this version of Bellinger or Brandon Nimmo is more desirable (assuming Bellinger keeps it up), and Nimmo got $162MM
Cubs fan
6:48
Should I be worried about Seiya?
Anthony Franco
6:49
Plate discipline looks good. He's hitting the ball hard still, just not barreling the ball quite as consistently as he did. I'm not worried, just feels like a slump
Wait Until Next Year
6:50
Can the Mets move any of their pending FAs: Canha, Escobar, Pham, Carrasco? Will they? Should they?
Anthony Franco
6:51
Not a ton of appeal with any of those guys right now. Maybe somebody gets hot closer to the deadline but they're all either struggling or hurt and making fairly notable money
Braves
6:52
Our top 2 SP are out indefinitely. Should we be concerned?
Anthony Franco
6:52
Obviously not ideal but one of the benefits of building yourself a seven-game lead by May 10 is you've got some leeway to weather this kind of stuff
Allen
6:53
Twins fan here, what’s it gonna take to extend Sonny? I’m concerned he’s pitching himself out of our price range after we dumped our money into Correa
Anthony Franco
6:54
Doubt he's signing an extension six months from the open market but he feels like he's in Chris Bassitt territory (three years, $63MM) as a free agent
Allen
6:54
3/60?
Anthony Franco
6:54
I now see that Allen also hazarded a contract guess that I basically agree with
Farhandrew Zaidman
6:55
Piggybacking on the Bellinger question: Surely that puts Bader in line for a similar payday too, right? Yes, Bader has health questions, but Belli has massive production questions. The defense is equivalent (maybe leans Bader?) and Bader's bat seems like on the verge of a breakout.
Anthony Franco
6:57
Bader's clearly below Bellinger for me. He's over a year older, hasn't flashed the superstar upside in the past, and never gotten beyond 427 plate appearances in a season. I think he's in a good spot for the reasons you mentioned -- it's tough to find center fielders who can hit in free agency -- but he's not in the nine figure range yet IMO
6:58
If he has a full season of 120 wRC+ hitting with Gold Glove defense, then maybe he gets there, but he's got a ways to go first
Mike
6:59
What LFs do you see available at the deadline? Yankees desperately need one
Anthony Franco
7:02
Seth Brown, Lourdes Gurriel, Wil Myers if he's hitting, could see the Marlins trading Jesús Sánchez, maybe someone takes another change of scenery shot on Jesse Winker
Guest
7:02
What happens to Eduardo Rodriguez?   He has a player option….  Traded, stays and opts our?
Anthony Franco
7:03
Steve's writing about E-Rod for Front Office subscribers this week and made the argument that he's trending towards opting out, which I agree with. I think the opt-out builds in too much downside for him to get traded this summer
7:05
The acquiring team has to accept the possibility that he could leave next winter while being saddled with the downside of three years and $49MM if he stumbles or gets hurt in the second half. It's not impossible, but it's quite a bit riskier than trading for a straight rental. So I don't think he's got a ton of trade value despite how well he's pitching right now, in which case Detroit wouldn't be super motivated to move him
Alright that's all I have time for tonight
7:06
Appreciate all the questions, sorry for the stuff I couldn't get to. I'll do another chat exclusive to Front Office subscribers on Friday, as I do every week. I answer the majority of those questions with significantly smaller queues
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