MLBTR Chat: 9/13/22
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Anthony Franco
5:32
Hey everyone, hope you're doing well!
5:33
Steve's been off the past two days so I'll run a chat today and hopefully he can get one in later this week
Reds GM
5:33
who are some potential non tender candidates ?
Anthony Franco
5:35
Most notable ones are guys on high projected salaries who aren't having great years. Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, maybe Gio Urshela, Luke Voit
Random Guy
5:35
Would the Brewers consider trading Yelich this off-season?
Anthony Franco
5:36
I'm sure they'd love to get out from under the contract but I can't see anyone taking them up on it. Yelich just hasn't played at that level in three years now
Joey
5:37
A few months ago (before the season started) there was a question on here saying the person was from the future and one of the following happened: Mullins wins MVP, Greinke wins Cy Young, or Fernando Tatís Jr was a bust. The answer given by the MLBTR writer was that Mullins was the only reasonable answer. Do you still agree with that?
Anthony Franco
5:37
Ha yeah I remember this one now that you mention it. I think it's still true
5:39
I don't know what "bust" means in Tatís' context. Could I see a world where between the PED suspension and the injuries he's not as good as we expected him to be and he underperforms the contract? Sure, so maybe that qualifies. But even in that universe, I expect him to be a good player, just perhaps not the player I thought he was coming into the year
Diamondbacks
5:39
Will fixing the bullpen make them competitors next year? Or will the inevitable regression of guys like McCarthy and MKelly mixed with playing the best of the AL cause them to stagnate or lose ground?
Anthony Franco
5:40
I think a top ten bullpen gets them close to average, but they need more out of the rotation (particularly if Merrill takes a bit of a step back as you pointed out) to get to contention
5:41
I like the lineup but shortstop's meh, Ketel Marte always has some health question marks. There's a lot to like but I think they're a bit more than just the bullpen away from a Wild Card spot. Nowhere close to the Dodgers for the division
Will
5:42
% chance either Woodruff or Burnes is moved this offseason
Anthony Franco
5:43
Obviously I'm just arbitrarily picking odds but it feels likely to me they deal one of them this winter to secure the best return they'd be able to get. 60%?
Mars
5:43
What a disaster in Detroit. So say Tork plays like a #1 overall pick, they sign Correa or Judge, and make a monster trade (Ohtani, Yelich, Devers etc.). Do you think they can make the playoffs in 2023?
Anthony Franco
5:44
I don't expect them to make two huge additions like that, and even if they did, I think they're short of competing. Rotation has serious injury question marks, particularly if Skubal's flexor surgery lingers. Third base, catcher, second base are all question marks
5:45
Too much went wrong this year for me to see a path back in '23. I think they need another transitional year (frustrating as it'll be for the fans) and target 2024 as the more realistic window now
Red Sox Person
5:45
If you were a Red Sox fan would you be worried about ownership being cheap by letting Betts, and potentially Boegarts and Devers go?  The feel like they're functioning like a mid-market team when they have a lot of $.
Anthony Franco
5:46
They opened 2022 with the 6th-highest payroll and 4th-highest CBT number, according to Cot's, so I don't really agree with the premise. They still spend
5:48
I think you can quibble with a lot of the ways they've used the money though, and I haven't loved most of what they've done the past 12 months. Thought they should've addressed first base last offseason (which is why I incorrectly picked them to sign Freddie Freeman), Bradley/Renfroe trade felt too cute at the time and blew up, the Story investment was pretty hefty
Jeff in Jersey
5:48
No way the Mets can avoid the highest tax level next year, right? Even keeping their top free agents & remaking the bullpen puts them over $300m....I hate the penalties that come with it but guess it has to happen to keep the team competitive.
Anthony Franco
5:49
Yeah I think they'll go past $290M. They've got too many guys to either replace or retain to scale back spending now
Bowtie Mo
5:49
What do I do with Jack Flaherty this off-season?
Anthony Franco
5:50
Boring answer, but I'd just tender him a contract and run it back for a final season. Not a good time to trade him but I think he's too talented to non-tender to save like $6-7MM
Parker
5:50
What kind of contract do you think Judge will sign? 6-8 years?
Anthony Franco
5:52
Yeah I think he's getting eight at an AAV record. $37MM per over eight gets him to 296, and at that point, somebody probably just crosses the $300MM symbolically. So that's where I'd set the O/U right now
Joey JoJo Jr. Shabadoo
5:52
Who's the next pre-arb star to get a Julio Rodriguez extremist type of contract? Maybe even a pitcher who can get that?
Anthony Franco
5:53
I don't think you're going to see teams invest in a pitcher for that long. The health risks are just too extreme. Even for someone like Shane McClanahan, a 12-year guarantee feels like too much of a gamble
5:55
As far as candidates for it, it's basically any top five overall prospect who immediately hits the ground running. Rutschman's the top example of that IMO, although he obviously went first overall and might not feel a ton of financial pressure to make a deal like that
MLB FAN
5:55
Who's the best player you have ever seen in person?
Anthony Franco
5:55
Trout
BhamBrave
5:56
Assuming Odorizzi exercises his player option ($12.5M with $6.5M buyout), what sort of trade market would he have in the offseason, or do the Braves just buy him out?
Anthony Franco
5:57
Braves can't buy him out, unless you mean cutting him while paying the entire $12.5MM salary. I don't expect them to do that, but I also don't think there's much trade value there. Probably just keep him around as depth
Artie
5:58
Do I attach Rednon to any Ohtani trade?
Anthony Franco
5:58
No they're not doing this and one year of Ohtani isn't valuable enough another team would take four years of Rendon at over $38MM per season
Pujols
5:59
Do I stay retired or pull a Brady and come back before 2023?
Anthony Franco
5:59
He's consistently maintained he's done after this year. No reason not to take him at his word
Thad
5:59
Do you see the Royals firing all the coaches and starting fresh?
Anthony Franco
6:00
I don't because the Royals tend to have really long leashes for their guys, but you can make a strong argument they should shake things up. The pitching staff, in particular, should be better by now with how many draft resources they put into it
6:01
Whether that's the fault of the coaching staff, overall player development department or the players themselves is tough to tell from the outside obviously
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