MLBTR Chat with Nicklaus Gaut
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Rick
1:27
Any reason to start Sproat tonight? He has been bad, game is at Coors, but it is Colorado and their SP isn't any better. Long-term, do you think Milwaukee with eventually turn Sproat into an effective SP?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:27
Don't do it
never talk yourself into a Coors game
long-term, I don't hate MIL's chances of doing something with him
Joesweet
1:28
At what point do you attempt to trade SP’s on an innings limit that others may not be aware of?  75%?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:28
depends on the chatter/how good they've been. The more they're rolling, the faster the limits chatter will pick up.
Waldenschmidt or DeLauter?
1:29
Waldenschmidt was just dropped. Would you rather have him, or DeLauter? And why? I’m tempted to claim him and drop Chase because of all Waldenschimdt’s 3 OF position eligibility and playing in a better hitter’s park.
Nicklaus Gaut
1:29
Understand the thought process, but I'd still stick with Chase
The Puk stops here
1:30
Thank you for the chat. Pre-emptive add on AJ Puk in a holds league worth it?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:31
ehh, if you have a free spot, sure
but that bullpen is probably going to keep spreading it around their non-Sewalds
Young arms?
1:32
Anything you like in these young fringey guys: Sandlin, Jump, Ginn?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:32
as previously mentioned, I'm done (for now) doubting Ginn
GBS42
1:32
Nicklaus, would you take a $5 Ryne Nelson for 2027-'28 over any of these pitchers at $9: Landon Group, Christian Scott, Ben Brown, Cade Cavalli?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:33
Nah, I'd rather have the field
Sully
1:33
Keeper league.  It's June 5th and I've been in 1st place for almost two months.  2nd place team is 18 points back, trying a Stars and Scrubs strategy, and just lost Judge for 6 weeks.  3rd and 4th place teams are 29 points back.  Should I sit tight and hold onto my keepers, or make a deal or two to step on everyone's neck and lock in the victory?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:34
Sit tight, don't get cute
no moves until something actual makes up any ground on you
1:35
Judge for a stars/scrubs is basically a season killer
poor guy
viper
1:35
What is the best way to look for trends in a player? My hitters and pitchers can be reduced to a single number and I can easily create daily, weekly, 3-weeks, etc. values (thank you OnRoto). What would be best, if there is a best way? The next time I can add/remove players is July 5 and by then TYD clearly supercedes ROS.
Nicklaus Gaut
1:36
Look at the evaluators for the "luckier" stats
1:37
ERA evaluators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) and BABIP goes a long way to catching pitcher trends
rolling xwoba windows are a great "catch-all" evalutor for hitters
along with xBA/BABIP
speaking of...
Adam T
1:37
Question about how you evaluate whether a player is due for (positive) regression in batting average. Is there any reason to use BABIP over xBA for identifying bad luck? A low BABIP might mean bad luck or might mean poor hitting. A low xBA can only mean bad hitting, no?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:37
My kind of question
1:38
I love "predicting" AVG because xBA/BABIP give you so much information
to answer your question, I use both
1:39
probably "more" xBA, but that's not exactly accurate because I think they're the most powerful when used together
1:40
I use xBA kind of like a player is hitting like "that kind of hitter".
1:41
or rather, xBA for what kind of average they "deserve", mixed with BABIP to cover our batted-ball luck issues
but always remember, few things "stabilize" slower, than BABIP.
you need multiple seasons
I usually look at three-year windows
1:42
but also make adjustments for player types
aka fast guys and lefties
Sloan, K Anderson, Hernandez?
1:43
Have I stashed the wrong prospect? Right now I’ve stashed Seth Hernandez and I know that he’s at least 1-2 yrs away. But I see Ryan Sloan is getting a lot of hype & just made it to AA for Seattle and they tend to promote from there. if you’re in a Keeper League rank these three SPa and on top of that what are Sloan‘s chances of making it this year?
Nicklaus Gaut
1:44
Gotta say, man, think I might prefer Sloan
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