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MLBTR Front Office chat with Steve Adams: 8/19/22
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Steve Adams
10:05
Greetings all! Looking forward to today's chat. I'll be on at 2:00pm CT to kick things off and start taking questions, but feel free to submit your questions in advance!
1:59
Hey everyone! Thanks for joining
Lots of questions already in the queue, so I'll try to get through as many of those and as many new ones as I can!
Dave
1:59
What do you see as the floor and ceiling for Oneil Cruz?  What kind of player do you see him developing into and any  comparisons?
Steve Adams
2:02
I think for any player with this type of swing-and-miss in his game, the floor is pretty low. We saw Joey Gallo struggles in New York, for instance.

I'm not saying the two are directly comparable, but there are similarities. We're talking 80-grade raw power from both, and an oversized frame for the position they're playing.

I'm not as "worried" about Cruz's hit tool, but you're probably looking at someone who's going to hit for a low average with a fair number of walks and tons of power. He has more speed than Gallo. I think some 40-homer, 20-steal seasons are probably in Cruz's future.
The ceiling, if he somehow improves his hit tool and gets the K% down into the 20-25% range, is an MVP candidate with 40-50 home runs, huge baserunning value and solid defense at short
mike yastrzemski
2:03
2022 has been my worst season ops+ 95 (.212/.309/.387).  I enter arbitration for the 1st time next season (2022 salary $3.7M).  Am I at risk of being non-tendered? or will I only face a salary reduction?
Steve Adams
2:04
This is Yaz's second time through the arb process, not his first (hence the $3.7MM salary). He's a Super Two player and will be arb-eligible four times.

It's been a poor season for him, to be sure, but his salary won't be reduced. Salary reductions almost never happen in arbitration, even though they're technically possible. I'd expect a modest raise, probably to something in the upper $4MMs or low $5MMs.

With three years of team control left and a solid track record prior to 2022, I don't think he'll be non-tendered. At worst, I have to think another team would have interest in making a small trade to pick him up -- if the Giants were truly ready to move on.
Trea Turner fan
2:05
What will it take to resign him. Does he want to stay
Steve Adams
2:06
I never gave a lot of credence to the "he wants to be on the East Coast" rumors, and Jon Heyman (who started that whole thing) has recently kind of walked that back.

I'm not the high guy on Turner on the MLBTR staff, but I still think he'll clear $250MM in free agency. Not sure the Dodgers want to go to that length to keep him, but something like 260-280 over eight years is probably where he ends up.
2:07
The market for Turner and other shortstops will be interesting. We again have a huge supply and again can probably bank on several typically big bidders (Yankees, Mets, Padres) being out of the mix. Rangers should be out, too
2:09
For teams that could legitimately pursue a SS, you're looking at...

Orioles
Red Sox (keep Story at 2B)
Twins
Tigers
Astros
Angels
Braves
Phillies
Cardinals
Cubs
Dodgers

I like the Phillies as an option for Turner since they have such a clear need and a willingness to/history of spending. If there's anything to his supposed East Coast preference, that would fit the bill.... but 9 times out of 10, money talks at the end of the day.
Dave
2:09
Better post-injury long-term fantasy option...J. Flaherty or T. Glasnow?
Steve Adams
2:09
It's pretty clearly Glasnow for me. He's going to strike out more than a third of his opponents, which is territory Flaherty has never reached. Flaherty's glut of injuries is actually more unsettling to me than Glasnow's Tommy John, too.
Eddie
2:09
Now that you've seen Luis Robert for three seasons...would you consider him an elite player who is just running into bad injury luck?  Or just a slightly above average outfielder who is fragile?
Steve Adams
2:10
Elite outfielder. I don't care much about "fragility" and whatnot. Even if you're only getting 120 games of him, 120 games of  Robert is more valuable than 162 games of most other center fielders. The contract is an unmitigated bargain. It's not entirely dissimilar to the Buxton/Twins scenario.
Clete Boyer
2:10
Kerry Carpenter (Det) seems to be tearing up the league in first rookie at-bats. He claims he's a different player from his minor-league days. Granted, it's a small dataset, but can he be somebody real—or is he just another Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson?
Steve Adams
2:14
I did not expect to see Kerry Carpenter comped to Torkelson/Kelenic when I fired up this chat! Ha.

I'm intrigued by the minor league performance, but strikeouts have been an issue and he's been nowhere on anyone's prospect radar for the most part. I'm not going to make any judgments on him based off 25 plate appearances, however promising they may be.

Also, as for Kelenic and especially Torkelson, I think there's a path for both to still reach much of their ceilings. They're super young, didn't play a ton in Triple-A before their promotion.... not every prospect hits the ground running like Michael Harris II or Wander Franco or Juan Soto.
Bob
2:14
Is Wander Franco done for the year or can Ray's fans expect him back by early September?
Steve Adams
2:14
Speaking of Wander!
Kevin Cash said he expects Franco to resume infield drills soon. Seems the Rays expect him back next month.
RAGBRAI
2:14
For fantasy purposes is O Cruz irrelevant for the ROS? What about next year?
Steve Adams
2:15
More Oneil Cruz! I don't have high hopes for him in 2022 with all the strikeout issues. If it's a keeper or dynasty format, that depends on your keeper settings/structures, but in a standard redraft league, I'd be looking elsewhere.
grover
2:15
Chicago and Oakland had to have been talking before the A's released Andrus, right? I'm not suggesting anything nefarious, just that the timing of events couldn't be coincidence.
Steve Adams
2:16
I don't think so. There's no real correlation. The A's released Piscotty the day prior. They're just turning things over to the kids and letting the veterans go. That there happened to be an obvious and immediate landing spot for Andrus seems unrelated.
JL
2:16
Mike Elias said the Os will increase their payroll significantly but was quick to add their own arbitration will play a big role.  The Os aren’t signing anyone tied to draft pick compensation right?
Steve Adams
2:17
I have a hard time envisioning them signing a qualified free agent or spending on any of the top names in general. I'm taking an "I'll believe it when I see it" sort of approach and think that while they'll spend this winter, it'll be more modest upgrades... larger commitments than Jordan Lyles but not the type of nine-figure deals a lot of fans are probably hoping for. The 2023-24 offseason seems a better target for them to really spend. By then, they'll have plenty of data on Adley, Rodriguez, Henderson, Hall, etc. etc. and how they're able to contribute in the Majors.
Guest
2:18
Trevor Williams has been amazing in his role of long reliever/short reliever/innings eater/spot starter.  What kind of contract will he get?
Steve Adams
2:18
He doesn't miss a ton of bats, his velocity is actually down from a year ago. I don't think he's going to be in huge demand as a free agent. If he got more than a modest two-year deal, I would be surprised, and I think there's a decent chance he ends up with "just" a year and a few million dollars.
2:19
The White Sox just formally announced their signing of Andrus, by the way.
Lenyn Sosa optioned to AAA to make space on the roster.
Yoan Aybar was outrighted last night to open a 40-man spot.
Old # 7
2:19
Ozuna is now a 2-time offender. Can the Braves void his contract or does the CBA prevent that?
Steve Adams
2:20
There's nothing that gives them a clear path to void the deal. They could try to leverage some of the behavior clauses or something, but there'd be a pretty strong pushback from the MLBPA
Jimmy Dugan
2:20
If Arenado opts out, who are the top three potential destinations? And what is your guess on a new contract?
Steve Adams
2:24
A new deal with the Cardinals would probably top my list. Failing that, I think you always have to consider the Dodgers in these scenarios, especially with a need at 3B. Yankees, Mets as well. Boring to have the usual big-spending suspects in there, but I think he'd be looking at something like $200-220MM over six years, so it's going to be a limited number of teams that are willing to take that plunge.

Fun dark horses: Mariners, Rangers
Astros fan
2:24
What is the probability the Astros will be able to keep Verlander next year? If he stays healthy I think someone will offer more than the Astros are comfortable matching. Agree or disagree?
Steve Adams
2:26
Tim Dierkes made this comment to me recently, and it's true ... Verlander has never been someone who has concerned himself with setting records. He took a 5/80 extension in Detroit knowing he could've done better in free agency. The two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros was a bargain at the time. The $25MM he took this offseason almost certainly wasn't the best offer he received.

I think Verlander has a case at something fans would think is crazy over two years -- $45-50MM annually -- or even topping the Scherzer deal by a bit.

I don't see why the Astros COULDN'T meet any of those prices, and I think the fact that he's been there and enjoyed his time there gives them an edge.
Alan
2:26
Could you cover the September roster expansion. Are there restrictions as to who can be called up? Reading many comments I think most or many are forgetting it's not the expansion of old. Thanks for doing these, always enjoy.
Steve Adams
2:26
Rosters go from 26 to 28 players, and a team cannot be composed of more than 50% pitchers.
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