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Mark P
12:00
As for the Orioles, only they know exactly what their issue was with Hoffman's medicals.  Only time will tell if the O's were being overly cautious, or if they made the right call in passing on a longer-term deal
Jim p
12:01
Did Lux go to Reds because sending him to Yankees would make them more competitive next October.
Mark P
12:03
We don't know specifically what the Yankees might've offered for Lux, but I suspect that the inclusion of the CBR draft pick was a big plus for the Dodgers.

Keep in mind, the Dodgers have depleted their farm system quite a bit in recent years due to trades, and giving up picks to sign qualified free agents (i.e. Ohtani, Freeman).  Plus, their first-round picks have been knocked back 10 spaces in the last few drafts because they exceeded the third tier of the luxury threshold.
12:04
Plus, if they do end up signing Roki Sasaki, the Dodgers will also be walking away from the rest of their 2025 international signing class.

All of this to say, landing another pick within the top 40 or so is a significant get for the Dodgers as they look to keep bringing new young talent into the system.
Sullen Seattleite
12:05
Are the M's actually going to roll into Opening Day with what they've got in house? It seem they're seriously underestimating how many fans they're alienating with each passing week of inactivity after years of pledging they'd spend when "generational FA talents" came available within our competitive window.
Mark P
12:07
Before I get to the answer, is "Seattleite" the common term for Seattle residents?  I somehow don't know the answer to this question despite all my years of watching Frasier.

The Mariners will surely bolster the infield in the 2.5 months (a.k.a. still a lot of time) between now and Opening Day.  Their slim payroll situation creates an obstacle, as does the fact that probably everyone is asking for one of their starters in any trade talks.
Phillies
12:12
seems likely Phillies roll it back again this year. Who is coming off the books next year, and what upgrades are available?
Mark P
12:14
Realmuto, Schwarber, Suarez, Kepler, and Romano are all slated for free agency next winter.  Jose Alvarado (club option) and Matt Strahm (if his contract doesn't vest) could join them.

So that's a lot of money being freed up on Philly's payroll, leaving them perhaps free to more openly pursue any of these guys....
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/2025-26-mlb-free-agents.html
Give me a break
12:15
Does Pirates signing of Morel  confirm what we has suspected all along as to where Sasaki is headed?
Mark P
12:18
Probably not, since I doubt Morel has any special insight into Sasaki's thinking.

I addressed this in the post yesterday, but simply the perception that Sasaki "might" sign with LA (or with any of the teams in the running for his services) is creating a lot of tension within the January 15th market.  

Don't forget, these kids and their families have been counting on these contracts and bonuses for years in some cases. It is only natural that they're concerned that they might have to start over if the team who has committed to signing them will now abandon that deal if Sasaki is signed.  If you're a team like the Pirates who aren't getting Sasaki, it's a canny move to swoop in on some of these prospects committed to the Dodgers/Padres/Rangers/etc. and say "hey, we'll give you more money right now and you won't have to worry come January 15."
12:19
There's also the fact that in Morel's case, Pittsburgh apparently offered him about $900K more than the Dodgers were going to give him.  That's a big enough of a bump that it's hard to fault Morel for walking away.
Jerry Dipoto
12:20
Mariners Fans are baffled that I seem to be hibernating this winter but I’m ready to get a deal done for Nolan Arenado. Help me make a trade that works for both teams.
Mark P
12:21
There isn't any sense that Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Mariners.  That might be the biggest obstacle even before we get into hypothetical trade packages, and the fact that the M's don't appear to have the payroll space to afford the bulk of Arenado's contract
toronto boy
12:21
who goes if the blue jays are done by July and they become sellers? Is it just Guerrero and possibly Bichette or are there more?
Mark P
12:22
Bassitt, Green, and Swanson are also free agents next winter.  And, if the Blue Jays struggle again to the point that Vlad/Bo are being dealt, I suspect then the larger-scale rebuild will begin, so pretty much anyone might be on the table.
Philly Special
12:23
Why all the buzz about the Phillies trading Bohm or Castallanos?  I don't see a path to making the lineup better if they do.
Mark P
12:25
Castellanos had a 105 wRC+ last season, which is fine but also not hard to replace.  And, given his lack of defensive contributions, 105 wRC+ isn't much for a player making $20MM.

In Bohm's case, his 115 wRC+ was largely due to a great first five weeks, as he faded badly in the second half.
Tom Kelly's blues
12:25
Is there labor strife coming in the next few years?
Mark P
12:26
There is absolutely another lockout coming when the next CBA expires.
David
12:26
Do you think the Marlins will actually trade Sandy Alcantara?
Mark P
12:26
Not until the trade deadline at the earliest, but yeah, this rebuild is extensive enough that Alcantara is too expensive for Miami, and they're not going to get back to contention during the lifespan of his contract
Walter
12:29
Will Francona lead a young Reds team to the  playoffs like he did with a young Guardians team in 2022?
Mark P
12:31
This scenario can't be ruled out, given how much young talent Cincinnati has and how good a manager Francona is.  If 2024 was just a collective sophomore slump from hell for basically the entire Reds team, a bounce-back from even a few guys and some help from Lux/Candelario can get this team back on track in a hurry
Blue Jays
12:32
If the Jays aren't going to be a top-three team in the AL East, is it time to admit the window has already closed? Should they be shopping Bo and Vladdy now?
Mark P
12:33
Speaking of teams that think they went through a year from hell, the Blue Jays aren't willing to blow things up yet given how much money they've committed to the roster, and because Vlad/Bo are still under team control.

While I do think the Jays are on the downward trajectory, I can understand why the front office isn't willing to go into rebuild mode yet, beyond the other obvious reason that it'd probably cost them their jobs.
Kirt
12:35
What do you think the Rays OF will look like in 2025?
Mark P
12:36
Lowe and DeLuca seem like locks for regular playing time, and I have doubts over Morel's ability to provide solid enough defense.  If he hits enough, Tampa probably won't care, and Morel might thrive by the move to the Stein.

Feels to me like the Rays could use one more reliable outfielder to really firm up the outfield picture.
Impatient Reds fan
12:37
Do you think that Santander is going to sign a 2 or 3 year deal with opt outs?  Does this give the Reds a better chance to sign him?  What player wouldn't want to boost their stock by playing in GABP?
Mark P
12:39
My suspicion is that Santander (and Flaherty and Alonso) are willing to take the shorter-term/opt-out type of contract with only particular teams.  Probably contenders that can allow them to snag a ring before ideally re-entering the market next winter.  

The Reds don't offer that clearcut path to contention, so I'm not sure Santander would be a fit.  There's also the fact that Cincy might not be willing to pay Santander the high AAV he'd still naturally want in a short-term contract.  While I agree that he'd mash in Cincinnati, I don't think the pieces quite line up, barring a surprise move from ownership.
Samson
12:41
Still puzzled by the Naylor trade. To save money? Doesn’t seem to have helped a 2024 division winner in 2025.
Mark P
12:44
The Guardians knew they weren't going to retain Naylor in free agency, so they opted to trade him now for a pitcher who can theoretically help them in 2025 (Cecconi) plus the draft pick.  It's the typical Cleveland trade package of obtaining a win-now and win-later piece in exchange for a pending free agent.

Obviously we also have to view it within the context of the Santana signing.  Naylor ended up avoiding arbitration with Arizona for a $10.9MM salary for 2025, whereas the Guards are paying Santana $12MM.  So it works out to Santana/Cecconi/draft pick for an extra $1.1MM.
12:46
Santana can easily regress in 2025 simply due to age, and until we see what becomes of Cecconi or the draft pick, we don't know for a while if this trade is ultimately a win or a loss for the Guardians.  But, given their payroll limitations, these are the moves that the team has had to make time and time again over the years.
Guest
12:47
Why is Baltimore so resistant to trade Mayo? Castillo for Mayo seems to perfect for both teams
Mark P
12:49
Because the O's think very highly of Mayo, and because Mountcastle is a free agent in two years' time.

I have no doubt that the Orioles and Mariners have had talks about such trades, but finding a specific match between their two surpluses is undoubtedly tricky.
Insert Witty Name Here
12:49
So Kyle Tucker to the Phils next year for 10 years $300+?
Mark P
12:50
Oh yeah, I'd definitely figure the Phillies as one of the prime suitors for Tucker next year
Dodger Dog
12:50
Your personal favorite stadium food item ? At what park ?
Mark P
12:51
I'm pretty basic with my ballpark food choices.  But just because it's fresh in my memory, I had a fantastic hamburger while attending a Yankees spring training game last year.  

So Rays fans, you'll at least be in for some tasty burgers in the move to Steinbrenner Field
Mets Fan
12:52
Why does Flaherty's market seem to be so slow? I'd think with his underlying metrics especially xFIP looking so good and with no QO attached he'd be up there with Burnes and Fried as opposed to seemingly a full tier or two down
Mark P
12:53
Could be that simply some teams want to see more than just one good season before paying Flaherty like a frontline-type of pitcher.  Plus, this is just speculative on my part, but I wonder if some teams (like the Yankees did at the deadline) have some concerns over Flaherty's medicals
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