MLBTR Live Chat with Steve Adams -- 10/25/16
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Steve Adams
3:05
Welcome! Wrapping up a phone call with the boss man (Tim Dierkes, not Melvin Upton). Will start in a minute but feel free to start sending in questions!
3:06
Alright -- commence.
Adge
3:06
Assuming Jose and EE are leaving the Jays, what names can you see them going for as replacements?
Steve Adams
3:08
That's the very safe assumption from my viewpoint. Luckily the market is stacked with solid outfielders and DH types. Atkins said yesterday that he's looking to add some more balance and possibly some speed to the lineup. I'd love to see the Jays add Dexter Fowler if he's willing to play a corner. That'd accomplish both fronts. Kendrys Morales would be a good add as far as an Encarnacion replacement is concerned... DH him during AL play and give him first base during interleague, where it's not a huge deal to boot Smoak from the lineup.
Bret
3:08
How do you see the Mets solving their issue of having 3 left-handed corner OFs (Conforto, Granderson & Bruce)? Bruce's option is debatable, but they did just pick him up. They could move Conforto to 1B, as has been discussed - but that would mean letting go of Duda, who also seems to have a bit of value.
Steve Adams
3:10
One of the many reasons that Bruce was a bad fit there from the start. I think it'll just be a lot of Granderson in center field with Lagares playing center and one of those guys shifting to a corner from time to time.

I don't think they should put Conforto at first, and I do think he should be in there every day. That doesn't seem to be how it'll play out, though, and Terry Collins stubbornly seemed to reject the notion of letting the kid get some work against lefties. Really not a fan of how Conforto was handled this year.
Aquizno
3:10
What do the Dodgers do for 2B? Utley/Kendrick? Trade for Dozier/Kinsler?
Steve Adams
3:11
As of right now I'd just expect them to put Kendrick there and maybe give Micah Johnson a look down the line if he's healthy. If Kinsler or Dozier becomes available in trades, then the Dodgers have the pitching that the Twins/Tigers would seek in those types of trades, so either would be a good fit. I'm not sure how likely a trade of either is, though -- even after Avila's comments.
wintermeetingsarecoming
3:12
most likely to start the year in AAA - Aaron Judge, Rob Refsnyder, Mason Williams or Tyler Austin
Steve Adams
3:12
Judge struck out 42 times in 95 plate appearances. Have to give it to him right now, but spring performances will play a large role in that type of decision.
Brett
3:13
What is the likelihood of Mike Trout being traded- this winter or by July?
Steve Adams
3:14
Like... one percent? Less than that? He's controlled for four more years and he's still 25. There's no urgency to do so. There's tons of money coming off the books, RIchards might be healthy... they'll try to contend again next season.
Dave
3:14
What should the red sox do you for their Vacant GM position?
Steve Adams
3:15
If promoting Sawdaye would've kept him in the org, I'd say they should've kept him. But we don't know if he was set on going to Arizona. Maybe he felt he'd have a bigger role in the decision-making process there than he would under Dombrowski, regardless of title. Maybe he's super close with Hazen and couldn't be persuaded to stay under any circumstance. If the title had nothing to do with Amiel leaving, then I don't think it matters that they didn't promote anyone.
Matt E
3:15
How much does Fowler get on the market? 4 years, $65M?
Steve Adams
3:17
Fowler is really hard to predict. He had a great 2015 season and could barely find three years late in the winter. Now he's a year older, he'll have another QO attached. If teams seemingly didn't want any part of his age-33 season last year, it's tough to say they're going to want his age-33 and age-34 seasons in 2016.

I remain bullish on him, but there's been a lot of behind the scenes discussion among our staff about Fowler and how we feel he'll fare this winter. Right now, I'm at $52-56MM over four years, but I still wrestle with the fact that there just wasn't a great market for him last year. We've been polling execs around the game and received a pretty wide range of years/dollars on him, which doesn't help matters.
Alec
3:18
Do you think Ervin Santana will be moved this offseason
Steve Adams
3:20
I hate putting percentages on things, but I'll do it for the purposes of this question I guess. I'd go 55-45 or 60-40 in favor of him being traded... He's basically signed at 2/27 with a reasonable third-year option. No pitcher of his caliber can be had for anything close to that this winter. Hell, there isn't a pitcher of his caliber even available outside of MAYBE Rich Hill, Ivan Nova or Jeremy Hellickson -- and none of Santana's track record of consistency and durability. His contract is a steal in this market, and the Twins were right to value him highly in July. They'll be even more correct to do so this winter. I don't think he gets moved unless it's a fairly substantial offer.
Chris
3:20
How good is Hunter Renfroe?
Steve Adams
3:22
Fair amount of homers, fair amount of K's, meh range and a good arm. I think he'll be a regular in right field for them but gravitate to power over OBP. He's a regular for them but probably not a star. And he's not going to hit .360 or whatever he did in his brief call-up obviously.
Jerry
3:22
Trumbo to the Rockies--plays 1B, hits about 60 bombs. Too obvious to be true, right?
Steve Adams
3:23
Kind of overstating the Coors Field effect there, and you have to wonder if the Rockies are going to be willing to part with the top unprotected pick (No. 11) to sign a guy that tanked in the final two months and will struggle to maintain an OBP north of .310. Dingers would be fun to watch though.
Thom
3:23
How much will Mike Fulmer regress?
Steve Adams
3:26
There will probably be some, but I don't know that I expect tons of it. Have to factor in some BABIP regression, but not as much as you might think, as he induced pop-ups at an above-average rate and was slightly better than the league norm in terms of inducing weak contact and limiting hard contact. Plus, he might be better equipped to stave off some late-season fatigue after an increased workload this year. I don't see why he won't pitch in the mid-3.00s for ERA next season.
Justin
3:26
Who are you rooting for, Indians or Cubs?
Steve Adams
3:27
I don't have a vested interest in either team, personally, but my dad's side of the family is from Joliet, IL -- he's been cheering for the Cubs for more than 60 years, my uncle for more than 70... I have a ton of cousins and stuff on that side as well that love the Cubs. So if they win, I'll be happy for them anyway.
3:28
I guess that makes me a de facto Cubs fan for like a week? I don't know -- I just want good games and lots of drama.
redsfan
3:28
Closer(s) and 5th Starter for Reds in April?
Steve Adams
3:28
Raisel Iglesias should close for them all next season. Fifth starter is really hard since they have so many option... I'll go Cody Reed since he's my favorite of the bunch, though that's admittedly a very off-the-cuff answer
David B
3:29
2/20 for Raj Davis and 3/45 for Mike Napoli sound about right if they hit the FA market? Go Tribe!
Steve Adams
3:29
Way too high on both
Guy Smiley
3:29
Thoughts on Atkins saying that Osuna will likely never be a starter?
Steve Adams
3:30
He's been phenomenal in his current role, and teams are finally beginning to make better use of their top relievers. No need to mess with a good thing, especially not since they have more info on his medicals than any of us will ever see. Maybe they have genuine durability concerns. Plus, they have nice rotation depth even after Dickey leaves.
blake
3:30
RE: Rockies 2017 1B--why not go after Duda? What would it take? Hes slated to make 7mil next year
Steve Adams
3:31
He may not even be available. I'd tender him a contract and start him in 2017 if I were the Mets.
Astros fan
3:31
Any rumbling onLourdes Gurriel? I thought this was about the time he could sign without restrictions.
Steve Adams
3:33
Yeah he turned 23 last week so he can now sign anywhere for any amount. But there's no guarantee that he was going to sign the first day he was eligible... I'd imagine he's still talking with plenty of teams. And there's no rush from his standpoint, either. It's not like Spring Training is starting next week and he needs to find a club. I'd guess we still get word of him signing within the next three weeks, but MLB discourages big announcements during the postseason and especially World Series, so it's possible that nothing will come out until early or mid-November for that reason.
Thank you
3:33
What is your proudest correct prediction you've ever made?
Steve Adams
3:34
I don't know that I have one -- I haven't thought about it much. For every time I've been right on something like Nick Markakis and David Robertson signing for way more money than anyone thought they would, I've been way high on Hanley Ramirez or something like that
3:35
Predicting this kind of stuff is an inexact science, and I guess I'm just happy that the times I'm wildly off have been relatively limited.
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