MLBTR Live Chat with Steve Adams -- 11/1/16
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Steve Adams
3:08
Thanks for joining on either Offseason Eve or Offseason Eve Eve. We'll see how tonight shakes out -- has been a fun postseason either way.
Let's get underway
Chuck
3:08
If they offer, would Kenley Jansen accept a high AAV bridge man role on Red Sox?
Steve Adams
3:09
Assuming "bridge man" = something like the way Cleveland has deployed Andrew Miller, I don't see why not. Jansen's aiming for max dollars, though, so if you're thinking of offering a huge AAV over 3 years or something then no way. He's going to break the current record for a reliever by a good $30MM at least, I would think -- can't see him signing for any fewer than five years.
Bret
3:10
There was a rumor in August about the Phillies exploring trading Odubel Herrera this offseason. Do you see it as likely?
Steve Adams
3:11
I'm sure they'll listen but he's controlled for another four years and their position players are well behind their pitching staff in terms of getting back to contention. So if someone wants to bowl them over with a huge offer, I suppose, but I don't think they'll shop him. I don't find it all that likely.
Adam
3:11
Who do you see the Rangers trading holland for?
Steve Adams
3:12
No one that great. Someone will pick up the tab on him and either send back a reliever with a not-insignificant price tag or some borderline prospects. Holland is a decent upside play because of the 2018 option, but with all of the shoulder injuries and knee problems over the past three years, his contract doesn't have much in the way of surplus value for 2017. I think exercising it (or trading him to a team that will) is the right call though.
OKC Thunder
3:13
Congrats on that 100 million dollar contract Steve Adams. Well deserved.
Steve Adams
3:13
My younger brother said I should hold out hope that a drastic and reckless accounting error allows me to capitalize on that deal. Fingers crossed!
3:14
Though I'm StePHen and he's SteVen. So my chances seem slim.
Also NBA salaries are crazy -- people say MLB is out of control, but man, some of the recent $100MM extensions in the NBA...
AJ
3:14
3 years $15MM about right for Jason Castro?
Steve Adams
3:14
I think he'll get that type of money over two years. Maybe a bit more. But I'm the high guy on Castro on the MLBTR team.
Dick Williams
3:15
Help! Brandon Phillips is holding me hostage and I can't escape! What do I do??
Steve Adams
3:16
Tell him he's a bench player next season and if he wants to play regularly somewhere he's got to waive his 10-and-5 rights. Not a great move for someone who's meant so much to the franchise, but at this point there's no sense in playing him over Peraza/Herrera. He's not part of the future and his closed-mindedness to a trade is genuinely hindering the rebuild.
Nostradamus
3:16
Insert comment about Trumbo going to Rockies and beaucoup de homers here - thoughts?
Steve Adams
3:17
Rockies would have to forfeit the No. 11 pick -- the top unprotected pick in the draft. I'd consider it a good fit had they lost a couple more games and had pick No. 10. I think he's going back to Baltimore for way too much money.
Mozeliak
3:17
Any chance of an Ozuna for Wacha trade? Or maybe Jaime and Weaver?
Steve Adams
3:19
Ozuna has more value than Wacha at this point. No idea what to make of Wacha's shoulder. Plus, the Cards want to get better in CF and Ozuna grades out below average over the past couple years. He's a fairly big guy so I can see him eventually settling into a corner. Weaver/Garcia would get their attention, but again, I don't love the fit.
(For the Cardinals, I mean)
josh
3:19
with breaking news of familia. can the mets possibly go after kenly or chapman if hes suspended
Steve Adams
3:21
Yeah that is a stunning development ... I'll withhold judgment until we know more, but Jansen certainly seems plausible. Not sure it sends a good message to have Jose Reyes, Jeurys Familia and Aroldis Chapman all on the same roster, but I never thought the Mets should've brought Reyes back in the first place. (Admittedly, he performed well beyond my expectations on the field)
BrewCrewFan
3:21
Wily Peralta: non-tender?
Steve Adams
3:22
He was pretty good upon his return from AAA and he won't cost much, so I'd be really surprised. If nothing else someone may trade for him.
Peralta had a 2.92 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate in 10 starts/61.2 IP following his recall. I can't see Stearns just cutting that loose.
Moose
3:23
Are the Phillies and Cespedes a match. If so, how likely is a pairing between the two?
Steve Adams
3:24
They're a match in the sense that the Phillies have a clear opening for him to play and a really clear long-term payroll outlook.

But you'd have to sell Cespedes on playing for a non-contender in year one most likely, and Klentak hasn't given any sort of indication that they'll be bidding on top-tier free agents. We've been kicking around potential Cespedes landing spots and the Phillies have come up but more in a, "I can see it but I'm not picking it" type of way than a, "Hey this could really happen" manner.
Outfield Fly Rule
3:25
I keep seeing articles speculating the Braves would target Justin Verlander from the now selling Tigers. I know Verlander and new Braves pitching coach Chuck Hernandez have a history, but that contract....it just doesn't seem like a fit, especially given the likely acquisition cost. plus, a no trade clause. Plus, a vesting option he may want guaranteed. Plus, 60% of expected payroll to Verlander, Kemp and Freeman.

Am I overlooking something that makes this seem like a good fit?
Steve Adams
3:26
Nope -- everything you said makes sense. Verlander isn't a good fit for the Braves. Verlander as a trade candidate doesn't even make sense, as he's quite expensive and has full no-trade protection. The Tigers aren't going to go for a full rebuild or anything -- they're going to trim some veteran pieces and curb their spending.
3:27
I'm betting JD Martinez goes this winter and I expect them to listen on Maybin, K-Rod and Kinsler while frantically trying to dump Anibal, Lowe and Pelfrey. But the makings of a contending team are still there in 2017, and Verlander hasn't given any indication that he'd even consider a trade.
Guest
3:27
Do you think the Twins will attempt to compete next year or was 2016 so terrible that I should lose hope?
Steve Adams
3:28
I think we'll have a better answer to that question once they hold a press conference introducing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. They'd need a lot to break right for them in 2017 to contend though (breakouts from Buxton, Sano, Kepler -- Dozier continues his pace, several power arms in the 'pen take steps forward... offseason pitching acquisitions all pan out... it's a stretch)
Hawkhastogo
3:29
Chris Sale for JBJ, Moncada, and two other pieces. Who hangs up first?
Steve Adams
3:30
The "two other pieces" there aren't so insignificant that you can just fill in whoever. If they're somewhat meaningful prospects, you may have something the White Sox would actually pursue. If they're organizational filler, it dpesto make it work, since that trade, in my mind, boils down largely to Moncada for Sale.
3:31
doesn't necessarily work* -- was editing and somehow pinkied "enter"
Respect
3:31
What do you think of when a player is called a former number 1 pick?
Steve Adams
3:32
I don't like when people refer to former first-rounders that way. Bert Blyleven does it on Twins broadcasts all the time, for instance, and it's misleading. Kyle Gibson was the Twins' first-round pick eight years ago or whatever, yes, but calling him a "number 1 pick" suggests to listeners that he was the first overall pick.
Davey
3:32
how can you just overlook bradley?
Steve Adams
3:34
I meant to imply that in a best-case scenario, the value there is a wash -- they're not getting any better swapping out Sale for Bradley and may get worse. So the upside for improving their team there is basically that Moncada pans out and becomes a star. Maybe that happens, but the Sox are going to want more than one top prospect AND MLB-ready talent in exchange for Sale
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