MLBTR Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
4:04
Sorry for the late chat today!  I've got an hour and I'm ready for your questions.
Bryce Harper
4:05
Where am I headed ?
Tim Dierkes
4:05
Here are the Vegas odds for Harper.
Giants 1/1
Padres 5/2
4:06
Phillies 4/1
Dodgers 15/2
Nationals 10/1
I find the whole idea of betting on this really interesting.  What if you're a reporter and you land the scoop, and it's the Nats?  Is it illegal to put $10K down on that?
4:07
Anyway, in terms of where I might disagree with this...I think I'd have the Phillies better than 4/1
And I know the Giants had a positive meeting and they plan to make an offer, but I'd downgrade them a bit from this
Jon
4:07
I'm reading rumblings Boras met with Friedman yesterday. Any truth? About Harper?
Tim Dierkes
4:07
You
4:08
You'll have to send me that link, I haven't seen that.
Baseball Boi
4:08
Chances Jays sign Bryce Harper?
Tim Dierkes
4:08
0.25%
Tony
4:08
You betting on Giants landing Harper? And if so how long you think contract is?
Tim Dierkes
4:09
I suppose Vegas has a point here and they are the current favorite.  I could see something like $140MM over four years, with an opt-out after year 2.  Maybe stack $80MM of it up front over those first two years.
OL PERFESSER
4:09
NYY hands on favorites for Machado?
Tim Dierkes
4:10
They actually are with these Vegas odds (sorry, dunno why I'm thinking about that today).  I actually like the Padres, White Sox, and Phillies more than them for him though.
Astros Fan 101
4:10
Does Houston end up re-signing : Dallas and Marwin? with expected price drop
Tim Dierkes
4:11
I don't think they'll bring Marwin back, and honestly I think Keuchel goes elsewhere too.  They've got Josh James penciled in and there are a lot of teams with a less interesting fifth starter and some money to burn.
Anthopolopogus
4:11
Am I a mystery suitor for Harper?  I mean him and Freddie are good friends, shouldn't that help?
Tim Dierkes
4:11
I don't expect the Braves to sign Harper.
Something Something BeatLA
4:11
Bryce should sign with the KBO and unite North and South Korea
OL PERFESSER
4:11
NYY sign Keuchel if Machado fallsthru?
Tim Dierkes
4:12
I don't see it...Severino-Paxton-Tanaka-Happ-Sabathia.  Who's getting bumped for Keuchel?
Rob
4:12
The longer this plays out does Machado chances of signing a shorter contract increase?
Tim Dierkes
4:13
Yes, but that general trend is true of every free agent.  The player's leverage and list of suitors dwindles and the chances of a short-term deal increase.
Those aren’t the odds
4:13
The odds were updated
Tim Dierkes
4:13
I guess that shows I'm not a betting man.  I got that email three hours ago, they changed since then?  I don't actually think Vegas has a better read on it than anyone else
Silver Fox
4:14
How has this offseason impacted MLBTR?  More views/traffic?  Less?  Curious of the trickle down of this slow FA season.
Tim Dierkes
4:15
Both traffic and complaints are up.  Which makes sense.  It may be kind of an annoying slow burn waiting for these key guys to sign, but 3-4 years ago we did not have this caliber of free agent on the market generating news.
Danny
4:15
In what order do you think the big 4 FAs get signed?
Tim Dierkes
4:15
Harper-Machado-Keuchel-Kimbrel
I'm Late for Physio
4:16
Do you see any of the big name free agents holding out until well into Spring Training like Arrieta - potentially impacting their readiness for the early part of the season?
Tim Dierkes
4:17
Spring training basically started today, so yes, all of the remaining free agents are going to have an abbreviated spring training to some level.  Every player is different as to whether that affects them.  It didn't matter for J.D. Martinez.
Odds
4:17
The odds have already flipped back in favor of Philly at +150 (Giants now +225)
Amarillo
4:17
Any chance any of the top 4 (Machado/Harper/Kuechel/Kimbrel) don't sign before opening day?
Tim Dierkes
4:17
I find that highly unlikely.
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