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MLBTR Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Curious George
4:17
On a scale of 1-10, how sick of answering Machado/Harper questions are you?
Tim Dierkes
4:18
3.  To answer this question each week as part of my job is hardly worth complaining about.  I just wish I had more interesting answers for you.
Izzum McGillicuddy
4:18
If Arenado signs an extension in the next few days, do you think it could
Tim Dierkes
4:19
Impact Harper/Machado?  For sure.  It would certainly set a baseline.  Could see something like $225MM over seven years for Arenado.
JW
4:19
Will Kimbrel have to settle for 3 years?
Tim Dierkes
4:20
Yes, I find four years unlikely and he could even struggle to get the 3/51 Wade Davis deal.
Theo Epstein
4:20
Why are the Cubs so compelled to stay under the upper tax threshold? Do you see it as a strategic point of view, with the 2020 off-season in mind?
Tim Dierkes
4:22
No, I've learned better than to suggest such a thing.  And I believe most teams don't focus on possible future free agents, since those players can easily come off the market.  The Cubs I think will be over the threshold already.  I think ownership just decided they have a high enough payroll and they'll play with the hand they have, even though that's pennywise and pound foolish.
Those aren’t the odds
4:22
Rob
4:22
Will we ever see free agency return to the days of the early to mid 2000s? Long contracts with high AAV?
Tim Dierkes
4:24
Even three years ago, we had eight years for Heyward, 7 for Price, 7 for Chris Davis, 6 for Upton, Greinke, and Cueto.  So it's only two winters that the monster long-term deal has been missing.
4:25
If it doesn't happen for Harper/Machado, it probably won't happen for anyone.  Even Mike Trout will be 29 in the first year of his new deal.  Teams will probably be reluctant to go to eight years on him, and he's inner circle HOF.
4:26
One thing that could bring those deals back is if the players, say, gave up arbitration in exchange for reaching free agency after 3-4 years.  That is something that was on the table briefly in 1994-95 when the strike happened.  I suppose if we had a 23 or 24-year-old free agent, an 8-9 year deal wouldn't seem terrible to the eggheads.
Tony Clark
4:26
How come there hasn't been a more in-depth analysis of how changes to the CBA have had an impact on this market?  It was criticized by agents the moment it was signed for having too low of a CBT.  More than that though attempted "fixes" to the QO system seems to have made it worse not better for players.  In particular stiffer penalties for rev share paying teams that target extra picks/larger reduction of International $'s
Tim Dierkes
4:27
While I see that as a contributing factor, I really don't think it's the primary one.  I think almost every team is now leaning analytically on player acquisition, plus team wins are not as closely tied to team revenue.
King Albert
4:28
Am i the reason all GMs now hate long contracts??
Tim Dierkes
4:29
It's not comparable to what's happening right now.  Albert's deal started with his age 32 season.  What's happening now would be similar to Albert only getting 4-5 year offers back after his 5th place MVP finish in 2011.
Bryce Harper
4:29
Could I give the Giants a real shot of stealing an NLWC spot? Or should I go to LA, Chicago, or Philadelphia if I really want to win?
Tim Dierkes
4:30
I'm not convinced the Cubs or Dodgers will jump in unless it's a huge bargain.  The Phillies are a better bet for Bryce if reaching the playoffs in 2019 is the goal.
my name is Paul Heyman
4:30
do you REALLY think the Rockies can get an extension done with Arenado?
Tim Dierkes
4:31
I don't see why not.  Their owner had positive comments on it, and despite his reputation, Boras does what his players want him to do (see Strasburg, Carlos Gomez).
Glenallen Hill
4:31
Shouldnt the Cubs sign Harper just to take the attention away from the bad pr stories this off-season (Joe ricketts/Russell).
Tim Dierkes
4:32
I don't think they make franchise-altering financial decisions based on short-term PR stuff.  I imagine the Joe Ricketts thing will blow over.  The Russell choice was a calculated decision by the club - "We know we'll take a PR hit on this, and we think it's worth it."
Justin
4:32
Is Harper worth the money he wants? Looking at players around the same frame (give or take 3 years) with around the same WAR and such and they seem to be around the 15-20 Million range.
Tim Dierkes
4:34
If we're conservative, Harper projects as a four-win player in 2019 and for the following several years.  It would be almost impossible to suggest a win is worth less than $7MM, even with the freeze the teams have implemented.  It would be really hard to justify with numbers the idea that Harper shouldn't get $25MM a year bare minimum.  The shorter the term, the higher than number should go.
Joe
4:34
If you were in charge of deciding the next CBA, and you could put the screws in to lead contracts in the most fair direction for all parties you think possible, would you push for longer contracts (7-8 years), or shorter higher AAV contracts (3-5 years)?
Tim Dierkes
4:36
Longer contracts is not a thing Tony Clark can directly push for.  Teams have already decided they don't want to pay players past age 33, 34, even if doing so was the previous cost of doing business.  The levers the MLBPA can pull include reaching free agency earlier (a major concession for owners) and, as they've proposed, changing how draft picks are determined by rewarding teams for winning and/or penalizing them for losing.
Fantasy
4:36
What’s the best site/publication to use for fantasy baseball?
Tim Dierkes
4:37
Depends on your needs.  If you like to geek out big-time, I recommend Baseball HQ, their Forecaster book.  News coverage, you can go to Rotoworld for free.  Solid analysis type stuff can be found at FanGraphs also for free.
FromTheOutside
4:37
Name three current contracts for 10 years or more that were (or will be) beneficial in the last two or three years.  Yep
Tim Dierkes
4:40
That's not really the question to ask.  The teams don't expect that (though they could expect that with the rare unicorn - a 26-year-old free agent).  They expect to get more than they paid for on the front end even if they get less on the back end.  For example, the Mariners did really well on what they got from Robinson Cano over the first five years (20.7 WAR).  $115MM for 20.7 WAR is a great deal!
GoSoxGo
4:40
Assuming the White Sox do not not sign anyone of the big names available, what is their fallback position: just let the kids come up and play as they are deemed ready?
Tim Dierkes
4:41
I guess the plan is to win 70-72 games and say that you've at least shown progress getting into the 70s.
Wes
4:42
All those deals you just mentioned are bad. No wonder no one wants to go to ten years. Yuck!
Tim Dierkes
4:43
If you're a GM, your goal is always to get the best players on the shortest contracts.  If Harper/Machado seem like they can be had at less than ten years, then you want that.  I totally expected market pressure to get both of them to that point and beyond - and that pressure is not there.
Dan
4:44
Would Harper help the Giants? Bonds was a great player but his ego and  special clubhouse  treatment seemed to create morale problems. Harper will never be the player Bonds was, but his ego seems to exceed Bonds. Except filling a few stadium seats it seems like the Giants would be taking a negative step in there retooling  to be a contender again. What am I overlooking?
Tim Dierkes
4:45
I don't think Harper's ego exceeds that of Bonds, and I don't know why he has that rep.  Is there something Harper said that makes you think that?  In general, when a team is within spitting distance of the wild card, I support them trying to win.  So in that sense I like the Giants going after Harper.  They shouldn't stop there.
Jason N
4:45
Prospect list season is here!  Do you have a favorite site/list/author for prospect rankings you like?  And why?
Tim Dierkes
4:46
I have been a longtime reader of Keith Law and Baseball America for my prospect info.  It's  a subjective thing but if you read up on those two sources, you should know prospects front and back.  I just feel like between the two, a million phone calls were made to scouts and front office people to determine who the best prospects are.
FromTheOutside
4:47
So two flawed players have offers to play baseball for north of $20M per year but the owners are greedy.
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