JotCast | MLBTR Live Chat With Tim Dierkes

Tim Dierkes

1:53

Manny Machado just signed the largest free agent contract in baseball history. The Padres have their new face of the franchise, and we've got a lot to talk about! I'm excited!

Kevin

1:55

I will ask the obvious question: What does this do to Harper

Tim Dierkes

1:55

He has a very clear bar to top, which also happens to be the offer he turned down from the Nationals (though that had deferrals).

It’sa me

1:55

What is next for the Padres? Seems like they should really upgrade that rotation now.

Tim Dierkes

1:56

I think they're a .500 team at present, and it would be odd to sign Machado and then run Bryan Mitchell out there in the rotation. Certainly I'd look hard at Keuchel, though I wouldn't break the bank on him. But he's the best available SP.

Cmmay123

1:56

I thought stanton was the highest?

Tim Dierkes

1:56

Yeah, Manny does require that qualifier as the largest free agent contract, as Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM deal was an extension.

Padre Fan

1:56

Assuming the Padres make no other moves, how many wins do they end up with this year?

Tim Dierkes

1:56

I'll say 80.

BILL PETERSON

1:56

Why did Padres VP say they wette "still discussing" with Machado when so many say deal is done?

Tim Dierkes

1:57

Probably just would like him to pass his physical before commenting.

Farhan

1:57

Any chance I will pony up for Bryce? Especially given the rumors he is apprehensive about Philly?

Tim Dierkes

1:57

It seems like a Giants-Phillies battle for Bryce.

Kirby

1:57

Machado's deal supposedly has a 5-year opt out. et's assume it is $30 mil per year, evenly spread. No way he has the value at age 31 to turn down 5 years and $150 mil to stay on, right?

Tim Dierkes

1:59

Under the old free agent market, he'd have a good chance of opting out. Who knows what teams will decide or what the next CBA might dictate - will we stay around the $7-8MM/WAR we seem to have suddenly dropped to? Six months ago a case might have been made for teams paying $15MM/WAR after the 2023 season. I'd give Machado at least a 30% chance of opting out.

Derek

1:59

What does the Machado signing mean for the White Sox?

Tim Dierkes

1:59

That they're checking the return policy on Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso? Rick Hahn said the emotions were still raw, and implied that they topped the AAV that Machado took. Kenny Williams said he was shocked and that they couldn't go to the $300MM level.

2:01

If the White Sox were really at 8/250, why object to paying 2/50 for Manny's 34-35 seasons? He won't be worthless at that point.

2:02

To answer your question - I think they saw Machado (and to a lesser degree Harper) as possible ways to accelerate their timeline (as the Padres have) and now they'll just stick with their timeline and I guess push in a bit for the 2020 season.

Nick R

2:02

Where do you see the Padres going for pitching?

Tim Dierkes

2:02

Reasonable to look at Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez, and kick around trades for Dylan Bundy, Danny Duffy, Michael Fulmer, guys like that.

Worried Dodger Fan

2:02

Is it actually possible that the Padres pose a threat in 2020?

Tim Dierkes

2:03

More than possible - I'd call it likely.

John

2:03

In hindsight should Harper have accepted the nats offer?

Tim Dierkes

2:04

I don't think so - if the deferrals made it like a 10/280 offer, it seems reasonable to think he can get at least $30MM past that.

Sean

2:04

Does this reopen the Bauer/Kluber trade talks with the Padres?

Tim Dierkes

2:04

I think the Indians have closed that off and are getting ready for the season.

2:04

Why didn’t Manny take the White Sox deal?

Tim Dierkes

2:05

Star free agents usually go for maximum dollars, and the White Sox didn't offer that.

AJ Preller

2:05

You know what's more surprising than me signing Machado, me signing Harper as well.

Tim Dierkes

2:06

Wouldn't that be wild? I just can't see it. From 2020-22 they will have Machado, Hosmer, and Myers each earning $21MM+. I don't see how the Padres reach a point where they're paying over $100MM/year to four players.

Bigger free agent deal after the 2023 season?

Manny Machado (50.5% | 606 votes)

Matt Chapman (49.5% | 595 votes)

Total Votes: 1,201

Cmmay123

2:06

How does this affect Trout in 2020?

Tim Dierkes

2:08

It's a bit of a guideline...Manny is now signed through age 35 at the second-highest position player AAV we've ever seen. Trout, however, will be 29 in Year 1 of a new deal. $280MM over seven years? I suppose if you're Mike Trout's agent, you still want to find a way to top whatever Bryce Harper ends up signing for. So maybe Trout's deal goes through age 36...he is Mike Trout after all.

Matt

2:09

What position do you expect Machado to play? Stay at SS or move to 3B with Tatis hopefully coming up soon

Tim Dierkes

2:09

The current opinion, which of course the Padres have not weighed in on, is that Machado would play 3B. I imagine he'll play some SS this year though.

fan

2:10

Do you think the Padres did the right thing? For their team? In relation to Machado's real value?

Tim Dierkes

2:11

Yes I do. This is not the Hosmer signing; Machado is a star player. Say he's good for 42 WAR and we value a win at a mere $8MM, and we use only 1% inflation. Even then he's worth $350MM over ten years. If I had signed Machado to this deal, I'd feel that I got both surplus value and one of the ten best position players in baseball. Yes please.

Rick Hahn

2:11

Should I be looking for a new job in the near future?

Tim Dierkes

2:12

Absolutely not. The White Sox pursuit of Machado comes from owner Jerry Reinsdorf, of course. If Reinsdorf greenlighted $310MM, the Sox would be getting ready for this week's press conference. Jerry drew the line wherever he drew it ($250MM?).

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