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NL Division Series Games 5 Chat
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Craig Edwards
4:49
Are you excited? I'm Jessespano.gif excited.
4:50
We will get things going here shortly. It will be me and Kiley for the early games with Dan Szymborski and Nick Dika taking on the later games.
Here's a quick things I wrote about the starters today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/the-nlds-game-5-pitching-match...
4:52
Couple polls:
4:53
Rooting for?
Cardinals (36.4% | 32 votes)
 
Braves (31.8% | 28 votes)
 
Just hoping for a good game (31.8% | 28 votes)
 
Total Votes: 88
Who will win?
Cardinals (48.8% | 20 votes)
 
Braves (51.2% | 21 votes)
 
Total Votes: 41
Derek
4:59
I am pumped.
John Redbird
5:00
Hi Craig I don't have a question I'm just excited for some good ol elimination game baseball with some strong pitchers on the mound. Now how do I get out of work to watch the game...
Cave Dameron
5:00
Adam Duvall in LF.
Craig Edwards
5:00
Duvall is the one big lineup change. While he did hit the homer off Flaherty in game 1, Flaherty is better against righties and Duvall hasn't had as much success against them.
5:01
For the Cardinals, Carpenter at third isn't a change from the last two games, but it is a change from Game 2 when Foltynewicz shut down the Cardinals. Probably the right call for the Cardinals, but the defense does go down a bit.
Jim hardball
5:03
For 2 innings, on FS1, I could not see the strike zone square. I panicked, but the umps call was the umps call. the pace of drama
In short, the umps are part of the game, and a bigger strike zone speeds it up.
Craig Edwards
5:04
I'm not sure I agree. I think pitchers are good enough to pitch to a smaller strike zone and we would see more swings and swifter play if the strike zone were smaller.
Derek in LIttle Rock
5:05
Fascinating that big league managers in 2019 still buy the fallacy of the hot hand and play a guy against his own strength and into his opponent's strength on the basis of a one-time (pinch hit, no less) event that happened nearly a week ago, back when the Kurds were our allies.
Craig Edwards
5:06
It's also possible that he wanted better defense in there, and citing recent track record is the better public excuse. It also seems like Markakis would be the more logical choice to the bench, but he's been the everyday guy, so...
scott
5:07
Also fascinating. haveing above average hitters give away outs in 2019!
Craig Edwards
5:07
Have to think Wong was partially bunting for a hit given he topped MLB in bunt hits, but not the best effort there.
5:08
Swanson saved a run right there keeping the ball on the infield.
Derek
5:09
(Very) SSS caveats and all that, but Goldschmidt has looked really good this postseason - how encouraging is that for Cardinals fans after a somewhat disappointing regular season for Goldy?
Craig Edwards
5:10
He did get somewhat unlucky this season and had a lot of big hits, but this Playoff Paul is what the Cardinals were hoping for all year.
5:11
I wrote about Ozuna a bit in the recap of Game 4 here: A word on Ozuna: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/braves-blow-chances-while-the-cardinals-st...
5:12
"The outfielder is having a fantastic series, with three doubles and two home runs among his eight hits in four games. He’s heading into free agency after what could be classified as a solid season. He put up a 110 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR at 28 years old. The free agent market for him remains murky, but it is possible his statistics this year underrate Ozuna’s performance. Based on exit velocity and launch angle, his .379 xwOBA is the 19th-best mark in the game. The 38-point gap between his wOBA and his xWOBA was the biggest in baseball among 135 qualified hitters.
The five players directly above and below him include Alex Bregman, Josh Donaldson, Pete Alonso, and DJ LeMahieu. Ozuna isn’t heavily shifted against and isn’t an incredibly slow runner such that he should be expected to have a much lower wOBA, so his underperformance is mainly due to his home park — Busch Stadium is tough on righties — and bad luck. The 10 players closest to Ozuna in xwOBA averaged a 136 wRC+ and with neutral luck, we’d be talking about Ozuna’s five-win season this year."
bobby three sticks
5:12
his batted ball profile was almost identical.  was it park effects? he was 40 points under his career average babip
Craig Edwards
5:12
The change in parks certainly didn't help Goldschmidt, though he also just wasn't quite as good as he was in Arizona.
5:14
So putting Carpenter in the lineup is already affecting the game and uses his good eye to get a bases loaded walk.
Derek
5:14
Probably not the start Foltynewicz was looking for...
Craig Edwards
5:15
Definitely not. He hasn't been bad by any means with a couple tough breaks, but the only out is a sac bunt at this point.
Mo money, Molina
5:16
"he's got the couch out right now for foltynewicz" - what a line
Guest
5:16
who is Edman??
Craig Edwards
5:16
Didn't know? Now ya know.
5:19
In Jack Falherty's second-to-last start of the regular season, he pitched a gem with 11 Ks in 7 innings, but the Cardinals lost. Then, with the season on the line, Flaherty pitched in game 162 and the Cardinals jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the second inning and won the game easily. It's still early, but...
tom
5:19
another Craig Edwards Cardinals puff ... chat
Craig Edwards
5:19
it's heading that way.
Dystopian Future
5:19
Baseball is so cruel; Folty's comeback story is totally derailed after not even one full inning.
Craig Edwards
5:19
Well, I'm not sure totally derailed is right given how well he's pitched lately, but getting just one out isn't what he or the Braves were hoping for.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
5:20
Sorry for the delay, had a contractor wrapping up some work but KILEY IS HERE
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