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NLDS Games 4 Chat
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Cale
7:44
Maybe I’m just wrong but do the baseballs seem less “juicy” in the postseason? Some of these swings and contact seem like they would be homers in the regular season.
Derek
7:44
Are we sure they didn't de-juice the ball for the postseason?
Ben Clemens
7:44
I'm sure you guys came here to talk baseball, not Bayesian logic, but: I think there's a pretty strong prior that they're not monkeying with the baseballs right now.
Why would they?
7:45
If we think they like the way new baseball looks, they would like it for the postseason, and if they didn't, why not change it after last year or whatever.
So we have small sample data and a strong prior that nothing has changed. I'd need to see a lot of evidence to change my mind.
Adam2
7:46
I generally find walks boring but love seeing Soto take balls
Ben Clemens
7:47
BP managing editor Craig Goldstein has been openly praying for a Dustin May/Juan Soto faceoff
Twitchfest 2019
Josh Herzenberg
7:47
Will be texting Craij if/when that happens. Subduing his giddyness will be tough
Ben Clemens
7:47
Cardinals homer that I am (note: not that much of one), I suggested Jose Martinez
Josh Herzenberg
7:48
Who came up with the Gingergaard thing? Was that Craig?
Greg
7:49
What's the leverage number here ?
Ben Clemens
7:49
It's around 3; we're a play delayed on our LI calculations I believe.
And Josh yes. Childish Bambino too
Derek
7:49
Which, if they did de-juice it, is absolutely bonkers, but in this small sample size so far I'm at least suspicious! And, why would they change it in the first place without telling anybody (and then lie about it)?
Ben Clemens
7:50
Could be. On the other hand, we've played 15 and change games of baseball in the postseason. That's one day of regular season play. Eh.
I'm just a skeptic.
7:51
RE: Soto, here is the absolute best Soto reaction of the season, courtesy of a friend of mine:
Kevin
7:52
Is there any chance the Dodgers amend Maeda's contract next season and make him a full-time reliever (especially if Urias goes back to the rotation)?
Josh Herzenberg
7:52
He's under contract through 2023
Belli Flop
7:53
My guy's getting hot.
Ben Clemens
7:53
Yeah, he hasn't flopped so far in DC.
Belli Flop
7:54
Those are the puns I came for! Thanks Ben!
Ben Clemens
7:54
I try not to break a promise.
Kevin
7:54
Yes but his contract is very unique and highly tied to number of starts (instead of appearances), so if he is moved to the bullpen it would greatly affect his earnings.  It does seem he fits better in the bullpen for the Dodgers though.
Ben Clemens
7:55
Yeah he has maybe the weirdest contract in baseball. Top two weirdest I can remember, after the Tim Wakefield perpetual.
My guess is that the Dodgers would make it right with him, to be honest. They could keep the rough financial incentives unchanged and avoid clubhouse discord without a ton of cost.
7:56
I used to work in finance and Kenta Maeda's contract is what we'd call an exotic derivative.
7:57
Well it's not a derivative, but it's certainly exotic.
Just all goofy appearance bonuses and stuff.
7:58
Seager swings at a 3-0 meatball and pops it up. Good process, rough result.
Dystopian Future
7:59
Quick aside, that was Beaty swinging at the 3-0, not Seager. Seager struck out.
Ben Clemens
7:59
Whoops. Trying to go too fast here, my bad.
Belli Flop
7:59
Would Bregman be a crazy MVP pick?  Effectively equal in fWAR to Trout and played more games.
Derek
7:59
Was that Scherzer's grunt the mics picked up there???
Josh Herzenberg
7:59
Yep
Ben Clemens
8:00
I don't think crazy at all. I'd vote Trout, personally, because a lot of the tiebreakers I care about (less WAR accumulated via defensive metrics, which are inherently more unstable, higher WPA) lean his way.
8:01
But you could easily prefer Bregman. They're within measurement error by the various metrics we use to judge value, and the MVP poll question is purposefully vague.
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