JotCast | NLDS Games 4 Chat

NLDS Games 4 Chat

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Ben Clemens

9:13

Josh, what do you think on this one? I would have him meaningfully lower.

Or well, meaningfully lower than Acuna's fair value.

Josh Herzenberg

9:13

Let me take a look

Ben Clemens

9:13

So probably basically Acuna's deal yea.

Belli Flop

9:14

What's so great about wires?

Ben Clemens

9:14

How do you think you have internet, buddy?

Belli Flop

9:15

I don't! I'm using my cup and string right now to shout at all of you.

Josh Herzenberg

9:16

I'd say something like 18mil in AAV would be in the right range for Gleyber to give up equivalent FA years

Dystopian Future

9:16

It's also important to note that the suggestions generally made by analytics aren't the same as the eye test or gut feeling suggestions, which are much more "you HAVE to get this guy out of here," as opposed to "you probably have like a 4% better chance of getting the hitter out by bringing in the reliever". Josh is right with the micro/macro level comment, and Ben is right that you always have to hedge. It's like one of the basic tenets that anything could be proven in a sample size of one, right?

Josh Herzenberg

9:16

Right. Hence our mocking of the broadcast

9:17

According to Statcast, Pedro Baez threw 36.1% of all his pitches during the regular season in Gameday Zones 11 & 12 this season — areas outside the strike zone high, high and outside, or high and inside. He allowed a slugging percentage of .086 on those pitches.

The pitch Ryan Zimmerman just hit out was the highest pitch the @Nationals have hit a home run on this whole season... 3.76 ft off the ground

That zim hit the home run doesn't make the pitch a bad pitch

That's the premise of sabermetrics

Adam2

9:18

So was Ben right or was I right?

Josh Herzenberg

9:18

Yes

Ben Clemens

9:18

Yeah one last comment on the whole mountain we've made out of a pretty reasonable take on analytics is that I do think that there are a lot of people who think of themselves as analytical thinkers but aren't. They're just looking for the truth to be given to them so that they can repeat it.

The true value is in questioning and being okay being wrong.

9:19

The people who say "Oh you can literally never let a pitcher face a guy the third time through" are just as wrong as htose who say "In my day everyone could do that and it's just hte soft players with their sabers now that can't"

Adam2

9:20

Ben, sounds like you don’t want to admit I was right.

Ben Clemens

9:20

Haha I think you were closer to right than I was on the Zimm home run. He was clearly unlikely to hit a home run there. He might have power up there but, no one has power THAT up there.

Let me put it this way, I'd like a knee-high fastball more than what he threw, but that's splitting hairs.

Adam2

9:21

Yay

9:22

That should be read with Anthony Rendon’s demeanor

Dystopian Future

9:22

Oh, perfect timing to say Eddie Rosario has power THAT up there

Ben Clemens

9:22

Both of these games are interesting right now.

Josh Herzenberg

9:23

Doolittle and May are up in each respective pen

Ben Clemens

9:23

I'm still watching the Nats, but gonna start streaming Yankees on the side soon.

Josh Herzenberg

9:23

Sorry, Gingergaard*

Dystopian Future

9:23

Meanwhile the game in Washington is getting interesting again. Guess it's time to start wondering when they're going to pull Scherzer, and who they would replace him with.

Ben Clemens

9:23

The wildest move would be Strasburg, but even Davey isn't that crazy.

Is he?

Belli Flop

9:23

Again, May does not like that nickname. He prefers "Big Red" to Gingergaard

Josh Herzenberg

9:24

I know. You can tell on me

He'll forgive me

9:24

Normally, I'd say 'Why in the world is Scherzer still pitching??' but given what Nats have..

Trent

9:25

Would any team other than the Nats (i.e., any team with a better bullpen) have stuck with Scherzer this long?

Ben Clemens

9:25

The Cardinals have a top five or so bullpen in baseball by the numbers this year and let Adam Wainwright throw six hundred fifty pitches yesterday in a one run game.

5 Run Homer

9:26

Ooooooh Joc almost did a thing

Ben Clemens

9:26

Pretty sure that was the right call but WOW

9:27

Good thing they didn't over-paint the lines

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