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October 2023 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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AvatarRoger Conrad
7:01
Bottom line--the important thing is the quality of the individual securities you own, not whether they're stocks or bonds. And I think whatever your age, that's going to be stocks for the most part.
7:05
As for the iShares 20 plus year T-Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF, it does have a pretty substantial yield at the current price, though I notice that the actual dividends are quite volatile from month to month--and are now actually quite a bit lower than they were a year ago, dropping even as the price of ETF has declined. I can imagine a scenario when TLTW goes gang busters. But it's a trading vehicle, not really an investment for those in need of steady income.
7:06
Thanks again for writing! Feel free to write us directly anytime at service@capitalisttimes.com. That also goes for all our members BTW!
Lou E.
7:15
Hi, Sherry,

If I'm not too late, please add the following question to the list for today's exchange.

I currently own shares of CMCSA (Comcast) that were purchased for $40.97, as well as VLO (Valero) for which I paid $146.11. I have been giving these shares quite a bit of thought lately, and could use your expert opinion if they should be held or sold.

I have always valued, and gained from, your thoughts over the years, and would appreciate your opinion here.
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:15
Hi Lou. I've been wary of Comcast Corp all year, as it seems to be losing its core broadband customers to the US Big 3 of AT&T, T-Mobile US and Verizon. And indeed that showed up clearly in Q3 results announced earlier today. To be sure, bottom line numbers were still solid, especially the 19.1% boost in free cash flow, which management is using increasingly to fund share buybacks. And the streaming business is also gaining customers, while the content business is also strong for theme parks and movies alike. There's a long way to go before the balance sheet and dividend become seriously a risk. But customer losses in broadband to the Big 3 appear likely to continue. And in fact, only sales of wireless service over Verizon's network prevented a far worse revenue number. Even after today's decline, the stock is still up year to date. But CMCSA still looks like a company to exit.

As for Valero, it continues to trade well above our highest recommended entry point of 105. And we've used strength
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:16
to take partial profits at various junctures already. This is a great company and the best in the refining business by far. But you get the most out of this energy bull market by being flexible--taking money off the table on run-ups to put back on when prices come off. And right now, despite a solid Q3 result we're not buying any more Valero.
Guest
7:22
Gents: Just got into the live Chat.  Do not know if there has been any discussion about MPLX.  Has the max buy price been increased above 35 yet?  Is their recent 10% increase in their dividend rather dramatic?  Thanks for your continued great advice and insights.  Best, Barry
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:22
Hi Barry. I touched on MPLX a bit earlier. The 9.7% dividend increase announced this week portends well for Q3 results due out October 31. and most likely we'll push up the highest recommended entry point. As I mentioned earlier in the chat, Marathon Petroleum's 64.66% ownership is likely a limiting factor for the share price, as there's always the question of whether it will try to wind up the public interest and save on paying the dividend. Nonetheless, MPLX has traded as high as $85 and change during the previous energy price upcycle. And given the strength of its business, it could definitely get back there. We intend to stick with it for a long time.
Eric F
7:28
Hey guys, I emailed a question a couple weeks ago for this chat, but I don’t see it. Is TLT, like the minimum the TLTW will go down to? Maybe if they’re covered calls don’t produce the money that they anticipate? Or can you lose more money in TLTW than you can in TLT?
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:28
That's definitely accurate, as you can tell just by looking at the price charts over the last 12 months. The other factor is dividend volatility. The monthly dividend for TLT this month, for example, was about 28 cents, which compares to about 24 cents 12 months earlier. TLTW in contrast paid about 29 cents this month versus 65 cents roughly a year earlier. TLTW offers much more leverage for betting on a bond market recovery, for example if/when the Fed pushes the economy into recession--but it's not really an income investment. Hope that answers your question. If not, please write us at service@capitalisttimes.com.
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:32
Well that looks like it for this month--quite a robust session and thank your everyone who participated. We look forward to doing this again next month. And hopefully Elliott and I will see many of you in Orlando at the MoneyShow October 29-31.
JT
7:35
Hi Roger. Please give your opinion on PSA. Thank you
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:35
OK, one more. We cover Public Storage in the REIT Sheet and I currently rate it a buy at 250 or less. I believe the higher quality storage REITs are well positioned to weather a recession and to keep up with higher inflation longer-term--though my favorite in the group is CubeSmart (NYSE: CUBE), which trades at a somewhat higher yield with another dividend increase on tap for December. It will release Q3 results on Nov 2.
RBB
7:36
Thanks again for an informative session. Take care.
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:36
Thank you!
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:38
On a final note, if your question was not answered fully or somehow overlooked, please write us at service@capitalisttimes.com. And we'll be sending you a link to a transcript of the complete Q&A tomorrow morning, which will also be posted on our various websites.
7:42
OK, I'm going to sign off for now. If you have additional questions please write us. Thanks again for your business!
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