JotCast | October 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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October 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Elliott Gue

2:48

We just did a deep dive into the refiners as part of this week's issue, VLO in particular. Basically, we find it very hard to identify any valuation upside without assuming that record refining margins (crack spreads) persist for years into the future. That assumes no pullback in demand from higher prices, no cyclicality and near-perfect operational performance in terms of system uptime. We loved refiners at the end of last year and pounded the table on them into early 2026, but we think even the best names (VLO) have just become momentum names, detached from underlying fundamentals. When you see a stock rise like that on valuation expansion alone rather than any real shift in the fundamentals, the subsequent declines can be severe. That's the unwind you're seeing.

Roger Conrad

2:49

Bottom line--Big telecom looks pretty cheap to me at this point. And Q3 results are showcasing accelerating growth and increased dominance. AT&T and Verizon both raised guidance after Q3 results and T-Mobile should later today.

Jimmy C.

2:53

FANG - up to 215 mid-September. Do you have an opinion on where it might go? Thanks.

Elliott Gue

2:53

While not in the model portfolio, we like FANG. I updated my production and free cash flow model a few weeks ago and my discounted cash flow (DCF) target on the stock was about $290. Since then commodity prices are higher so a model refresh is likely to reveal upside to that target. From a technical (chart) perspective, that stock looks to be tracing a base since mid 2024; if the stock breaks higher, that would project to around $270 to $300 depending on how you measure it. They report Q3 2026 earnings on Monday night if memory serves so I'll probably do a refresh of the DCF model over the next couple of weeks.

Joe T.

2:55

Hi Roger,

What’s your current view of BEP / BEPC? Is it a buy r hold? Thank you

Roger Conrad

2:55

Hi Joe. Brookfield Renewable announces Q3 results and updates guidance November 6. I see BEP/BEPC both as strong buys ahead of that--with the caveat that I've recommended both for quite a while at relatively low prices. I that should not be construed as advice to double down or unbalance a portfolio to bet on the company.

I do think what we'll see is continued strong cash flow growth, project backlog expansion and execution getting new cash-generating assets up and running on time and budget on a global basis. And ultimately that's what will drive returns in the stock.

Near-term, I expect a boost when BEP and BEPC shares are consolidated. And we could also see one if there is a blue wave election outcome that raises the possibility of new wind and solar tax credits.

Kerry T

2:57

Hello:

in the latest EIA you have PR's highest entry as $16 in the E&P table, but $23.5 in the Actively Managed Portfolio.

Roger Conrad

2:57

Hi Kerry. In contrast to my answer of the question about prices in the High Yield Energy List, the Portfolio price is correct and we will change the price in the table. Thanks for pointing this out.

Denisimo

2:57

Thanks for yesterday's update.

It looks like PR is the place to be now.

Comments on how OVV or CHRD would compare as an investment?

Elliott Gue

2:57

PR is, in my view, one of the finest operators in the Permian. We still like OVV and it remains a portfolio pick. They just announced a $800+ million bolt-on deal to add 200k+ net acres in the Montney Shale in Canada. It's oil and condensate rich acreage as well, which is a nice pivot for them in Canada. Their Permian business is also solid and I really like that they exited Anadarko -- Anadarko is a fine play, but I prefer more focused operators who don't dilute their CAPEX among 5 or 6 non-core assets. OVV is now a dual basin, focused stock. CHRD is not in the portfolio at the moment, so it's not one of our focus picks, but we generally like the story there.

John C.

3:04

Hello
A couple questions for the chat today.

HESM. Comment on the Outlook after the move recently by Chevron.

VICI. Has been dropping lately to 52 week low. A buying opportunity? Or are there underlying issues? Thanks

Roger Conrad

3:04

Hi John. My favorite in the casino/resort landlord space is Gaming & Leisure Properties (NYSE: GLPI). And it's now very cheap (yield 8.6%) in advance of Q3 earnings this week that should include a third consecutive quarter of increased earnings guidance. VICI should actually do the same later today, when it announces Q3 results. They're both getting hit by the concern higher for longer interest rates will slow growth or even threaten the dividend. And I think that will be refuted in results this week.

As for Hess Midstream, i don't have a lot to add to my answers posted earlier in the chat. I do think investors are probably focused too much on the number of rigs Chevron has operating in the Bakken and not enough on the fact the agreement extends HESM's midstream relationship with Chevron by 20 years--and by eliminating a controlling shareholder increases HESM's takeover appeal. Also the nearly 10% dividend looks well covered after eliminating 40% of outstanding shares.

Don C.

3:12

Roger--the governor is asking for a six year freeze in utility rates in Virginia. Is this merely political posturing or an opening tactic in negotiation or is it a deal killer. I own shares in both companies and hope the deal is finalized.

Thanks for all that you and Elliott do for subscribers

Roger Conrad

3:12

Hi Don. First, I don't claim to have any insider knowledge of Governor Spanberger's thinking. But my take on Virginia's review of the Dominion Energy/NextEra merger is it's basically a negotiation. The governor, I think, became an official intervenor in the case to more or less ensure it goes through under the right conditions for the state--mainly because this is the most painless way Virginia can add all that data center business. And to do that, she has to win conditions that satisfy the political center.

A six-year base rate freeze sounds like a lot, until you consider Dominion's investment plans are largely covered by rate riders tied to specific projects--like the nearly completed Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind facility. And the data centers they'll be connecting are really in a separate category from other ratepayers--they'll be paying full freight for their connections.

NextEra's CEO expressed confidence closing the deal during the company's Q3 earnings call--so the proposal is not a deal killer.

Alex M.

3:13

If the current higher interest rates are a result of higher oil prices, and higher oil prices are a temporary phenomenon due to the Iran conflict, then would now be a good time to begin buying into long duration fixed income? Preferred stocks and long-dated bonds have sold off recently, so I'm wondering with the potential for interest rates to decline as oil prices come down, is now a good buying opportunity? Thanks.

Elliott Gue

3:13

In our Smart Bonds advisory, we've had some limited exposure to long-duration Treasuries, particularly via the ETF TLTW, which owns long duration Treasuries via the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and sells covered calls on TLT to generate additional premium income. What I really like about it is that in 2026, when the media tells us the bond market , particularly long duration Treasuries, have been getting slaughtered, TLTW is actually up slightly with call premiums offsetting any downside in price. So that's a way to accumulate long-duration Treasuries with an additional margin of safety. The other issue is that I think a lot of investors look at how long-duration Treasuries were slaughtered in 2022 (down ~30%) and worry that could happen again. However, the big shift is that in late 2021, the US Treasury Bond market was uniquely vulnerable because yield were so low -- around 1.80% to 1.90% in late 2021 -- thus there was no carry. Historically, of course, your return from the bond market in most market

Elliott Gue

3:13

environment is more about the carry (coupon/yields) than price appreciation. Without significant carry the investment case for bonds crumbles. At the end of 2021, a paltry 0.17% rise in 30 year yields was enough to wipe out 2 full years of carry. Today, for the same bond, you'd need yields to rise by over 70 basis points to well over 6% to wipe out 2 yrs of carry. So the downside risk is more limited. Our view is that it's still too early to rotate more aggressively into LT Treasuries as they typically perform best when the US economy is at risk of imminent recession.

Frank

3:21

With the EQT and Range merger, what are your thoughts and does it change any by up to prices?

Elliott Gue

3:21

We like the deal. RRC gives EQT significant NGLs exposure (propane, ethane, butane) whereas EQT is currently a dry gas producer. Also, the two companies have significant midstream overlap and both have among the best cost structures in the US (lowest gas breakevens due to their concentration in the Marcellus/Appalachia). EQT has proven very adept at M&A, as evidenced by their Equitrans deal a couple of years ago, which is one reason why the stock is actually higher since announcing the deal. There are also positive implications for the industry as a whole as two extremely disciplined operators -- EXE and EQT -- will now control a large chunk of US shale gas production. Both have been willing to scale back/shut in production when we see weather-driven declines in natgas prices.

Lorie T

3:32

What is your current recommendation on OXY? I have held it for 28 years and what a rollercoaster it has been! You no longer carry it in your model portfolio but do have a buy below rating of $55. Hang on or bail? It is held in an IRA so cg taxes are not an issue. Sure appreciate these Chats

Elliott Gue

3:32

Thanks for the question and we're glad you like the chats! We generally like OXY from a fundamental perspective. The main reason we sold it out of the model portfolio a couple of years ago is that we saw more upside in other names such as OVV, PR, EOG and even XOM and CVX. All of these stocks have outperformed OXY over this time. Indeed OXY has been a chronic underperformer over the past 2-3 years. One of the simplest "indicators" I watch is to evaluate how a stock performs following its earnings releases relative to the broader energy indices. If a stock consistently underperforms that's a signal markets are worried about their execution; unfortunately OXY has been on that list for me, so I generally prefer to look elsewhere.

Lorie T

3:50

Further OXY question. I also have the warrants. Sell them or wait until they expire in August? If one waits will they automatically be exercised or must I be sure to do it before they expire?

Elliott Gue

3:50

So, I believe these are the WS warrants o OXY that expire on August 3, 2027? Warrants are essentially call options on the underlying stock; in this case, that's OXY, and the strike price of the warrants is $22 (it's called an exercise price for warrants but the concept is the same). The current price of OXY is ~$63+, which means that the options are about $41 in-the-money -- that's because you must pay $22 to exercise the option and received 1 share of OXY (worth $63+ today) for every warrant you exercise. Now generally speaking warrants, like options, are priced as follows: Warrant Price = intrinsic value (current price of OXY less $22) + time premium (extrinsic value). Because the warrants are so deep in the money and have less than a year until expiration, the time premium is pretty low (last I checked $1.50 to $2). SO, that leaves you with 2 choices: 1. Sell the warrants themselves and collect their current intrinsic value plus whatever time premium is left, 2. Exercise the options at any time on or

Elliott Gue

3:50

before 5 PM (NY/ET time zone) on August 3, 2027. If you do that, however, you must pay $22 per warrant in cash and will forfeit any remaining time value (you will just get the intrinsic value). Also, please note that these warrant do NOT exercise automatically so if you miss that deadline next August, you will forfeit any value and, to put it mildly, that would be a very bad outcome. Some brokers have a policy of automatically exercising warrants that are in the money like options, but you'd still need enough cash in your account to cover that $22 per warrant exercise price and I would NOT rely on that policy as not all brokers do that.

Don

4:01

Hi Guys,
Thank you for doing these monthly chats.

What do you think of FLNC down around $6 now.

If I don't own it yet are you still in favor of ARE now that it is under $40 again today. Thank you

Elliott Gue

4:01

bearish the euro, sterling and the aussie, among other currencies. When you see speculators so uniformly bearish it's usually a signal that a significant countertrend move is imminent. (Of course, what's happening in France probably isn't helping sentiment on the euro either). Real Rate have soared since last spring (indicative of significant monetary tightening) and i suspect either real rates come down into 2027 or the economy cracks and real rates come in. Either way, gold itself is into support and I think a turn is imminent, but I'd rather wait for some sign of strength before recommending readers buy the dip more aggressively in the metals/mining names. I am also looking at a trade in micro euro futures for our CT Trader trading service, but that's another story.

Nolan C.

4:01

Any thoughts on the IUG spinoff of NFG, good, bad, wait and see.
Thanks you have done me well since 2009.

Roger Conrad

4:01

Hi Nolan. National Fuel Gas will report Q3 earnings and update guidance on Nov 4. So I expect management will be answering a few more questions about the spin then. But as I noted featuring the stock as an Aggressive Focus in the November CUI, I'm pretty bullish on the plan and I think it will ultimately unlock considerable shareholder value.

The main reason it hasn't to date is it was announced at a time when natural gas prices are depressed and many are worried about the Super El Nino's impact on demand near-term. But a pure play natural gas production company in Appalachia will immediately be a takeover target--as the EQT/Range deal suggests. And the utility side of the business as a scaled up gas distribution company will support the current dividend along with a decent growth rate.

I think if you own shares in NFG, you want to keep them. My highest buy in price is still 80--which is pennies below today's price.

Don C

4:01

Elliott--gold shares and my favorite streaming and royalty companies are down quite a bit from their highs. Do you see this as a buying opportunity?

Elliott Gue

4:01

Thanks for the question. Broadly, yes, I think gold goes higher long term and I think the royalty names eventually make new highs. However, I think it's a bit early yet to buy. I cover several precious metals recos -- gold, silver, related stocks in my Free Market Speculator/Creating Wealth service. We've owned them since early 2023 for the most part and used the big surge in late 2025 and early this year to lighten up. A little over a month ago, I did add a very small recommended position in ELE to the model portfolio. In the short-to-intermediate term, the two macro fundamentals that drive gold/silver prices are the US Dollar Index and real interest rate (I use the 5-Year TIPs yield as a proxy). Both are moving in the wrong direction of late (higher) and that's short-circuiting any rally attempt from the metals. I think the dollar comes down soon. I watch the Commitment of Traders report from CFTC closely and the speculators, their siblings and their best friends from university are alredy very, very

Don C

4:02

Elliott-both gold shares and steaming and royalty stocks are down quite a bit from their highs. Do you see this as a buying opportunity. Thanks for all that you do, sir.

Elliott Gue

4:02

This looks like a repeat question. I answered just above.

Victor

4:05

Hello Elliot, your report on VLO and refineries is very insightful and detailed. A while ago I sold most of my VLO position with great gains. However, I still own a portion, I was wondering if it makes sense to sell what I have left and use that money to add on PR. Or just keep my small position of VLO and use fresh money to add on PR. I know that you said that you are not bearish on VLO long term. Your thoughts. Thanks!

Elliott Gue

4:05

Thank you, I am glad you enjoyed it. That group has been haunting me a bit lately, because I see the refiners pushed so aggressively by so many people and so I wanted to really stress-test the valuation model there. Generally, our recommendation is to exit VLO and reallocate to other names like PR, SLB and XOM/CVX. With the latter two, you are actually getting some meaningful exposure to refining fundamentals without quite the "stretched" valuation like in VLO/DINO/PBF, etc.

Janet Finch

4:12

What do you see as the long-term outlook for EIX? It seems like it is moving off it's apparently oversold price. For individuals who were assigned at $85 a share is this a stock worth sticking with or a time to deploy resources into a faster growth opportunity?

Roger Conrad

4:12

Hi Janet. The key issue with Edison is its ultimate liability for damages from the 2025 southern California wildfires--and the state eventually passing some measure of utility wildfire liability reform that ensures companies that follow the rules aren't at risk to bankruptcy. It look like a liability cap may be out of the question. But as I've pointed out--extensively in the Sept 6 Post "California Burned: But Edison is a Buy"--there is a third possibility, mainly the enactment of some form of "statutory rebuttable presumption" which raises the standard for negligence beyond the simple equipment was involved.

The value proposition for Edison is a growing 6% dividend yield and the potential for capital gains of 50-75% in the next 12-18 months--if the state increases the Wildfire Insurance Fund enough to cover the estimated $45 bil in lawsuits as required by current law, and/or it passes some version of statutory rebuttable presumption.

Guest

4:12

Good morning Roger: I have 382 shares of a stock called "OXY/WS" which I never intentionally purchased but which were issued to me in July 2020 while I owned a substantial number of a stock called OXY. I think you may have previously recommended such OXY stock. Question:

Elliott Gue

4:12

We covered the OXY warrants in response to a similar question above. Bottom line is that they are essentially deep in-the-money call options on OXY with a strike price of $22 that expire in early August of next year (2027). You have 2 options: 1. Sell the warrants themselves for some premium to the intrinsic value (defined as the current price of OXY less $22). 2. Exercise the warrants on or before 5 PM NYC time on August 3, 2027, which requires you to pay $22 for every warrant you hold (about $8,404 for the 382 warrants) and you will forfeit any premium above that intrinsic value. However they do NOT automatically exercise, so if you miss the deadline you would forfeit significant value. Right now the intrinsic value of these warrants is in the region of ~$41 each.

Guest

4:12

Continuing on from before - Question - what do I do with these OXY/WS shares? What do these shares mean? Thanks.

Elliott Gue

4:12

Answer this just above.

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