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Offseason Outlook Chat: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Steve Adams
1:41
I think Gray will top $80MM at least and probably push closer to/north of $100MM (I'm the high guy on Gray among the MLBTR staff, admittedly, but we're all at $70MM+ for him). Wacha would make sense and I think there's a good chance the Padres decline his option and he declines his player option.

Quintana's signed with the Mets through next season, and I don't think the Mets are all that eager to deal away one of the only pitchers who's consistently performed for them since coming off the injured list.
Stu
1:41
WIll Triolo's bat let him play 1B or is he a Swiss Army Knife?
Steve Adams
1:45
I think he can potentially bounce around the infield and the OF corners, but I'm not sold with the 27% K rate in AAA and the 29% in the Majors. As soon as the .430 BABIP comes crashing down to earth, the offense is going to look a lot worse.

Triolo hasn't just lacked home runs... he's sporting bottom-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard-hit rates. There's probably some room for further development, but he'll turn 26 this offseason. Maybe there's a Kyle Farmer or Wilmer Flores kind of profile in there eventually, but I'm probably not nearly as high on him as a lot of Pirates fans are.
MostlyToasty1
1:45
Any chance someone like Erick Fedde or another KBO/Nippon pitcher could be a cheap low-risk option for them this offseason? Fedde has been one of the best pitchers in the KBO with a 2.10 ERA in 160+ IPs.
Steve Adams
1:47
Yeah Fedde's a fun upside play for pretty much any team. Pirates included, of course, but it stands to reason there'll be competition for a former first-rounder and top pitching prospect who's carved through the KBO with a revamped pitching arsenal and is still just in his age-30 season. I'd like that type of signing far more than throwing some cash at Kyle Gibson or whoever for some bulk innings.
Dave
1:47
Who says no: Cruz for Crews? Nats get some power, move him to 2B and solve their outfield prospect logjam. Pirates make both Team Draft Crews and Team Draft Skenes happy.
Steve Adams
1:48
Fantasy trades like that are fun, but I can't see the Nationals moving Dylan Crews so soon after drafting him. He's already ranked among the game's top five to ten prospects, and flipping him for a prospect who once ranked similarly but hasn't immediately delivered and now has one-plus seasons of MLB service under his belt plus a major injury he's recovering from doesn't seem feasible.
William
1:49
What is the rest of the rotation going to look like besides Mitch
Steve Adams
1:50
Keller, Oviedo, at least one offseason addition -- as I wrote in the Outlook, I'd prefer two: an upside play and a more stable source of innings -- with enough openings for Priester, Skenes, Jones, Solometo, etc. to eventually get their chance at auditions. All of those guys will have a chance to be up at some point next year, pending injury. And I'd expect the 2024 end-of-season rotation looks very different than the Opening Day group
Cap'n Jack
1:51
pirates need more guys with beards
Steve Adams
1:51
Hey Dallas Keuchel will be out there
Yark
1:51
Has Donovan Solano opened eyes in FA this offseason and can he be a legit option at 1B?
Steve Adams
1:53
He's basically been the same guy he's been since his out-of-nowhere 2019 breakout with the Giants: contact, minimal power, nice batting average, capable but not great at multiple infield spots.

Solano is turning 36 soon, his strikeout rate has climbed (although so has his walk rate)... he's a fine depth guy who's got enough bat to fill just the sort of role he has in Minnesota. Didn't enter the year being counted on as a starter, but versatile enough to handle a larger load if injuries necessitate. I think the Pirates should aim higher if they're going to bring in a first baseman.
Wilbur
1:54
Thoughts on Jason Delay?
Steve Adams
1:55
Solid backup catcher to pair with Endy/Davis? Good defender, little offense. I don't think he'll be asked to be anything more than a backup, nor should he, but he's a fine piece to keep around.
Guest
1:56
Worth noting that Bryan Reynolds, Henry Davis and Lucas Giolito all share the same agency. Could you see a 2-3 year deal on Giolito?
Steve Adams
1:57
CAA Is one of the largest agencies in the sport. Most teams have multiple CAA guys on their roster. I wouldn't read too much into that.

I expect Giolito's going to be looking for the type of deal Carlos Rodon signed with the Giants -- semi-premium AAV on a two-year deal with an opportunity to opt back into free agency next winter. I don't know that the Pirates are going to be willing to accept that kind of downside or commit that type of annual value. It'd be very against their general way of doing business.
Bryan
1:57
Is Aaron Nola on the Pirates radar? Snell’s out of their price range, but is Nola a good option?
Steve Adams
1:58
Said before, but I still think Nola's getting well over $100MM.
Go Dills!
1:58
What should we expect from Quinn Priester in '24?
Steve Adams
2:02
I think he can take a nice step forward. Priester didn't pitch outside of the alternate training site in the shortened 2020 season. He pitched 97 innings in 2021, 90ish innings last year and has 108 in the minors this year plus another 43 in the big leagues.

It hasn't been a good debut, but this is uncharted territory for him workload-wise, and he had a nice combination of missing bats and inducing grounders in Indianapolis this year. I don't think he's a future ace or anything, but Priester stepping up as a breaking-ball-forward third/fourth starter type seems plenty plausible to me, even if the fastball and sinker are more hittable than you'd like to see.
bmcferren
2:02
would the yankees consider their first ever sell off trade for prospects in exchange for Gerrit Cole?
Steve Adams
2:03
No, and even if they would, the Pirates wouldn't take the $36MM annual salary on.
Ryan
2:04
Henry Davis's prospect value seemed to be as a catcher with an above-average bat for the position.  Seems like he's fallen behind Endy Rodriguez on the depth chart.  Does his bat project well enough to actually provide value at 1B or a corner OF spot, or is his offensive value dependent on playing C?
Steve Adams
2:06
If the Pirates didn't feel the bat could play at another position, they wouldn't have drafted him No. 1. Sticking at catcher has never been a surefire thing, but he could end up in right field or at first base because of the bat. I don't think this year's rough rookie showing changes things all that much. Not everyone hits right away -- most guys don't. Look at Spencer Torkelson in Detroit... it took him 600ish plate appearances before he really began taking off. He's popped 21 homers and hit .247/.328/.522 going back to early July
Guest
2:07
Prediction time: What is you're #1 Pirates acquisition for 2024? Why?
Steve Adams
2:10
Are we saying what I think they SHOULD do or what I think they WILL do? Those are very different things, ha.

I would love to see a team like the Pirates shock everyone and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, because a 25-year-old NPB ace who's in his prime would greatly accelerate their timeline. But he could command upwards of $200MM, and the Bucs aren't taking that chance, even if they have a squeaky-clean long term payroll.

I've hammered on this both in the Outlook piece itself and in this chat, but I think they're in a great spot to take a chance on an upside pitcher like Montas or Severino on a one- or two-year deal. Signing boring innings eaters isn't enough once the bulk of your farm system is on the cusp of the Majors. They need to stop thinking about raising the floor and start looking at raising the ceiling.
greatwhiteangus
2:11
Personally, and not judgmentally, I don't see the Bucs spending for Montgomery or any other top FA pitcher.  I do see them possibly trading some prospects for an established pitcher.however.  What teams in your opinion have enough depth to trade from their pitching surplus?
Steve Adams
2:12
I don't expect a ton of controllable pitching to be moved, since it's always the hottest commodity in baseball, but a few teams to consider: White Sox, Guardians, Marlins, Dodgers and possibly the Angels, depending the route they take if/when Ohtani departs.
Guest
2:12
what are the odds mccutchen comes back?
Steve Adams
2:13
He'll come back or retire, and I assume it's the former of those two. I don't like putting numbers on things like this, but I would be very surprised if he's not back with the Bucs next year.
Anderson
2:14
Thoughts on Bae? 2B, CF or trade candidate?
Steve Adams
2:16
Hit tool hasn't been there like they hoped thus far, and he's never had much power to speak of. He's a light-hitting utility guy right now and probably Triple-A bound to begin the season. Could see him being traded since he doesn't have a clear long-term role waiting for him or anything, but I don't think he's a major component in any trade after the season he's had.

In general, I'm underwhelmed by a lot of the Pirates' young infielders (Bae, Triolo, Peguero, Gonzales, etc.) -- room for one of them to take a step forward, for sure, but it wasn't a great season for any of them. They all have minor league options remaining at least.
2:18
I've got to wrap this up! Sorry for all the questions I couldn't get to! I'm on Twitter / X @Adams_Steve

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