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Offseason Review Chat: Minnesota Twins (3/31/23)
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Steve Adams
2:41
More than last year, in part because this group of starters is just better. But I've said this about the Twins often ... they're far from the only team limiting this. The average MLB start last year was just under 5 1/3 innings. The days of regular six- and seven-inning outings aren't returning anytime soon.

I'm sure Lopez, Gray and possibly Mahle will get those opportunities as they build up. A guy like Maeda, coming off Tommy John, probably has his workload restricted. Ryan will get some chances on days he's cruising.

In general, I'd expect the Twins to go from averaging like 4.85 IP per start (they were around that last year) to more like 5 1/3 in 2023 -- largely because Bundy and Archer (who made short starts by design) are gone. That's not a Twins-specific thing. It's just baseball in general.
Ron
2:42
If the Twins become trade deadline sellers, who's on the list?
Steve Adams
2:43
I don't expect it, but the impending free agents are all fair game then. Gray, Gallo, Mahle, Taylor, Solano, Maeda. Kepler has an option but he'd be put out there again.
WW2
2:43
The Twins seem to be fairly deep across the board now, and able to field a strong lineup even with Polanco and Kirriloff starting out on the IL. Catcher appears to be the thinnest spot, with little after Vazquez and Jeffers. Would you agree that's the thin spot, or do other areas stand out as bigger concerns?
Steve Adams
2:45
Yeah I suppose it's the thinnest, but even that's a stretch because I think Jeffers could still be a starting-caliber catcher and Vazquez certainly is. If one of them went down, they'd probably select Tony Wolters from AAA, and he's a pretty experienced guy who could hold down a backup job. Insofar as having some true up-and-coming catching prospects, however, you're right that there's not a lot there.

I'd need to look to be sure, but I don't think they have a catcher in their top 30 at Baseball America right now, for instance.
Lorenzo
2:45
How long is Gallo's leash?
Steve Adams
2:46
They signed him to an $11MM deal. They're not going to cut bait on him early even if he struggles. If he looks like 2022 Gallo come mid-June or early July, maybe you start thinking about it, I suppose.
Twins Starters
2:46
Which SP(s) do you think pitch 160+ in 2023?
Steve Adams
2:47
I'd rank the likelihood as: Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Gray, Ober, Maeda. I'd be surprised if more than two of them get there, given starter usage and some injury concerns up and down the staff.
Art-i-choke
2:48
Pineda, Maeda, Paddack: twins seem to excel at buying players who quickly need to go under the knife. Bad luck or does our correa-loving team doctor need new glasses? Is correa going to hold up? Do we trust pohlad wallets over johnson and cohen?
Steve Adams
2:50
Pineda was recovering from Tommy John when they signed him. I wouldn't include him in there.

Paddack's 2021 season ended with a UCL injury, so I'm sure they knew there was risk there. But they were giving up one year of control over Rogers and a player they probably considered a fringe 40-man guy (Rooker) to get three over Paddack, two of Pagan (who they clearly were more bullish on than they probably should have been) and a prospect. Paddack needing TJS so early was surely not the outcome they wanted, but I have to think that scenario was baked into the consideration; even if it happens, you're still probably getting 1.5 years of him. And now, with the extension, more.
2:51
Maeda had some known elbow issues earlier in his career, but it was a similar situation where they knew they were acquiring four years of control. The general public was aware the pitchers had some injury risk so the Twins surely were as well, and that was likely considered when evaluating the asking prices.
Jimmy Flintwhistle
2:52
Twins don't make the playoffs, buh buy Falvey/Lavine? My magic 8 ball says "YES!" Their development of anything really, has been not good!
Steve Adams
2:53
I don't think so, personally, but not all playoff misses are alike. If they miss by one game and have a bunch of fluke injuries, that's different than "We're 16 back in July and the guys we acquired have been healthy but terrible."
In the former scenario, they're probably fine. In the latter, any team could do something more drastic.
Will
2:54
What is the most likely scenario for Edouard Julien getting into a Twins uniform/lineup?
Steve Adams
2:55
He already tore up Double-A pitching in 2022. I think as long as he gets off to a good start in AAA early this year, you could see him at any point from May onward if the team. Given that the Twins' current injury issues are at second base and first base, and there's no set DH, that's the exact kind of recipe that could get him a look in six weeks or so if he's raking and these issues are persisting.
BullishPen
2:56
It seems like the Twins added some great depth to the roster this offseason, but didn't seem to take chances at buying/trading to bolster the bullpen. Do you agree this area will be the weakest spot for the Twins this year?
Steve Adams
2:59
This front office never takes risks in the bullpen. They've signed exactly one reliever to a multi-year deal: Addison Reed, like six years ago. Maybe seven? It's just not how they operate.

I'm probably more bullish on the 'pen than most of my fellow MN natives. I fully buy into the Jorge Lopez breakout and think he'll be better in '23 than he was down the stretch in '22. Jovani Moran looks excellent. Caleb Thielbar is underrated throughout the league and even among Twins fans. Griffin Jax's breakout looks real. Jorge Alcala and Trevor Megill are intriguing power arms. I doubt both simultaneously break out, but having some upper-90s/triple-digit guys (Megill) as your sixth/seventh relievers isn't a bad spot to be in.

It's a quietly good group that probably gets a (deserved) bad reputation based on last year's Pagan/Duffey misadventures early in the year.
Ron
3:00
What will it take to unseat Miranda at 3B?
Steve Adams
3:00
If he's playing terrible defense there midseason and Brooks Lee has ripped through Double-A and Triple-A, first base isn't so set that they can't slide Miranda into more of a 1B/DH role again.
BB-STC
3:01
How close are Emmanuel Rodriguez & Edouard Julien to the MLB level?
Steve Adams
3:02
Kind of already touched on this with Julien, but I doubt you'll see Rodriguez until late 2024 at the earliest, with 2025 more likely. He's 20, hasn't played above A-ball, and had season-ending knee surgery last year.
3:03
Could be 2026 even with Rodriguez. He's not a near-term guy, barring some unforeseeable Soto-esque skyrocketing through the minors
LunchInLA
3:04
Will Jorge Polanco be a Twin next year?
Steve Adams
3:07
It's a really fair question to ask. I think if you see any of Lee/Lewis/Martin/Julien have some success in the big leagues --  a la Miranda in 2022 -- it becomes increasingly plausible that they move him. His salary's creeping north of $10MM, and that's kind of the range where a lot of teams start to back off veteran 2B-only types. Polanco has enough bat to make that price point worthwhile, but he also needs to have a mostly healthy season and produce well.

It's way too soon to say that any one path is decidedly likely, but given his current injury status, the rising price tag and the several young infielders they have on the cusp, I can definitely see them going another direction.
Cris E
3:08
I think the biggest impact Polanco's absence might have on the Twins lineup could be in HRs.  After Buxton and Gallo there aren't a lot of guys who might hit 25+ HR on the 26 man. You probably don't need a bunch of them, but there aren't even that many 15-20 HR guys on this roster unless the kids develop (and that's hardly to be counted on.)
Steve Adams
3:09
Yeah it's not the 2019 Bomba Squad, but I think you're short-changing some guys in terms of power a little bit. Correa, Miranda (15 in 480 PAs last year) and Larnach are all potential 25-homer guys. Kepler has the one outlier 36-homer season, but generally is probably more in that 15-20 range.
3:10
Alright I've got to wrap this up. Thanks, as always, for chatting. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve for more questions. Sorry for the dozens I still couldn't get to even in this more focused setting.

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Have a great weekend, and enjoy the 2023 season!
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