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Padres Outlook '23
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Brian
4:49
Anyone understand why Matt Carpenter went so long without even one AB.  It’s
Anthony Franco
4:51
Really weird situation. Obviously get why the coaching staff didn't want him taking high-leverage AB's since he didn't come anywhere close to replicating the production he had with the Yankees. But getting to a point where he's on the roster but a complete non-factor doesn't work, and I'm surprised he wasn't DFA down the stretch
4:53
The Braves kept Charlie Culberson around for like two months this year and gave him one at-bat. But SD doesn't have that kind of depth, and it's hard to believe they couldn't find someone the coaching staff trusted a little more than Carp off the bench by the second half
Guest
4:53
where would you rank preller among mlb gms/pobos? he’s given out some weird contracts and the end of season results arent always there, but it’s impressive how he’s able to unload the farm system and then rebuild it really quickly
Anthony Franco
4:55
I'd have to think about this more to feel comfortable with a specific ranking of where he slots league wide, but I agree with your characterization. They've been really good with identifying amateur talent and generally solid about deciding which of their prospects they'd be willing to part with for star talent (aside from the terrible trades with Seattle at the 2020 deadline)
4:57
Less consistent on the free agent front. Martinez, Pomeranz, Suarez deals all felt well above market value. Wouldn't have gone near where they did on Bogaerts even in a market that was beyond expectations at the top end
Pop
4:57
Given his problems after getting hit in the face, what do the Padres do with Nola? Could they DFA him and bring him back on a minor league deal?
Anthony Franco
4:57
He should be non-tendered. I think it's probably best to move on at that point and look for a new backup catcher
4:59
Lin suggested today they could have some interest in keeping Gary Sánchez around. I think they make a lot of sense as a Mitch Garver fit (primary DH, occasional catching reps when Campusano needs time off) but I also wouldn't be too surprised if the Rangers just make him a qualifying offer at this point
Trevor Schrum
4:59
should we expect snell to be gone? Seems as if everything points to him leaving in FA, rotation should be a target for this team considering the injuries downs the stretch with darvish and musgrove and Snell could be a stabilizing force if he’s back
Anthony Franco
5:00
Yeah seems like Snell's going to walk. Got a few other questions in here about his market value. He's well past Rodón money for me, I think it's in the David Price range (7/217) with how well he finished
Josh Hader
5:01
Will my resistance to pitching more than one inning, even in the NLCS, hurt my value?
Anthony Franco
5:03
He'd be more valuable if he were still working 2-3 innings at a time. So it hurts in the sense that he's not as uniquely dominant the way he was early on with Milwaukee, but I still expect he'll set the reliever contract record
5:04
I can see why Hader firmly holding to working one inning would irk some Padres fans, but ultimately, he's so good in that one inning that I don't think other teams are going to care that he's been stubborn about the role lately
Mason Moyers
5:05
Trading Soto and Kim both in walk years is the best solution to get back on track. Kim is never going to have a year like he had this year again and even in the last month he was not good. Trade both while they have value
Anthony Franco
5:07
Depends on the offers obviously but in isolation, I don't think this is the ideal plan. The rotation's going to regress. It would even if they retained Snell because he's unlikely to replicate this kind of season. I'd rather hold the top offensive talent to compensate for that
5:08
Even if the rotation takes a step back, there's enough here that they could go into 2024 with a strong chance to make a run in the division. They won't be this bad in close games again, Cronenworth should be better. They should place more emphasis on the position player depth this time around
billyk06
5:09
Will Padres go after NPB's Sasaki?
Anthony Franco
5:10
Roki Sasaki won't be available to MLB teams for another few seasons. I'm sure the Padres (and basically every other high-payroll team) will be involved when he is
Bryan
5:10
What do you think was the actual reason the team slumped so bad?
Anthony Franco
5:13
They didn't hit in key spots. Only the Royals had a lower team OPS in situations FanGraphs categorizes as high-leverage. That kind of thing fluctuates year to year and I don't buy that this roster is fundamentally incapable of executing when it matters most, but the fact is that they failed way too often in those situations this year
gavin
5:14
why would you keep Barlow at 7 mil?  surely you can sign someone better for that much
Anthony Franco
5:15
Barlow at $7MM seems fine to me. That's a little below decent setup money, which is where I'd have Barlow
Chris
5:16
Non-freak out view from a lifelong Pad fan: Position starting core is intact (and regression to the mean would imply all but 1-2 will have better years in 2024): 1B- Crone, 2B- X, 3B- Manny, SS- Kim, C- Campy, RF- Tatis, CF- Grish, RF- Soto.  Need to fill in a couple DH/corner IF/OF types and a backup C: hope you catch a break here, but can't do much worse than Carp/Nelly/Nola group from 2023... Merrill up as a 2nd half call-up.  Starting pitching is greatest need: Musgrove/Darvish hopefully bounce back from injuries, pick up Wacha option, decline Martinez and see what he does... leaves 1-2 spots (would be nice to see Morejon healthy over a full season), Snelling/Lesko not ready yet.  Offer Lugo a reasonable deal to come back and take a flier on a couple upside/veteran types for depth.  Bullpen will be fine, even without Hader, think Suarez steps up with a healthy season.  I know it's tough to roll it back, but run differential and other metrics say stay the course... thoughts???
Anthony Franco
5:17
Mostly agree with the sentiment. I'd emphasize adding a bench bat more than you suggest here but in general, I think there's still a strong core here even without a huge move to replace Snell or Hader
Jurickson Profar
5:18
Clearly, I was the missing piece in the clubhouse. I foolishly left last time for money (that I didn't get) so what kind of deal would bring me back?
Anthony Franco
5:19
Wouldn't cost much. One year around $4MM or so feels fine. The production in Colorado was really bad
Michael Wacha
5:20
What would a three year deal for me look like if they decline my 2/32 option? Thirteen a year?
Anthony Franco
5:21
Yeah I believe we have him at 12 annually over three as we're sorting out Top 50 numbers
Alright that's all have time for today. Have to get started on a post for Front Office subscribers
5:22
Thanks for all the questions! Sorry if I couldn't get to yours. I'm on Twitter @affranco10 if you want to reach out there
5:23
I also do weekly chats with Front Office members on Friday afternoons. I get to most of the questions in there since the queues are a lot smaller
Have a great evening everyone!
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