JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat | 8/25/2021

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:05

Hello everyone!! Sorry for being a day late, but we're here!!

I'm also posting my SP rankings here very soon so you can view those & ask questions (live in about 5)

Guest

1:05

Concerned about Ohtani's recent hitting performance? Lots of strikeouts

Paul Sporer

1:05

No

Guest

1:06

Is it time to give up on Jeff McNeil hopefully recapturing his 2019 output?

Paul Sporer

1:07

Oh for sure, he looks like a clear 2019 rabbit ball product. I think a healthy McNeil is still a .280+ hitter w/low double-digit pop, but I'd be surprised if we saw 23 ever again

Sideshow Bob

1:09

Thoughts on Edward Cabrera's debut, holding him in a 10 team H2H points league

Paul Sporer

1:13

"thoughts on" questions are a bit too vague, so let's aim for more pointed queries. That said, I only saw a bit of the highlights bc I was out at trivia last night, but he impressed. He was clearly looking to get outs however they came so I'm not worried about the low-K total in a debut and sure, he ran into some trouble in the 7th, but a rookie made the 7th inning in his debut!! All in all, hard not to be pleased w/the effort. I'll watch the full game later today.

Upton Funk

1:14

Hey Paul! What are your thoughts on Kelenic in 2022? This year change anything for you? Feels like a guy who could still easily just turn on a dime to his minors numbers (rather than a quad A to sell on, like Brinson) . . .

Paul Sporer

1:16

Totally agree re: turning on a dime and all of a sudden it clicks. I'm not going anywhere in terms of my interest and barring a big September, it'll be cheaper to re-invest next year which makes it even easier to stay bought in.

1:18

SP Rankings are live: http://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-updated-sp-rankings/

Ace

1:18

Rank these three for the next 3 years: Skubal, Mackenzie, Cease

Paul Sporer

1:19

Just for clarification, I imagine you mean Triston McKenzie and not Mackenzie Gore. I'd go Skubal, Cease, McKenzie... I love what we've seen from McKenzie in this recent run, but still have some concerns tied to his injury history

Fred

1:19

Is Jorge Polanco going to be a top tier 2b entering next year?

Paul Sporer

1:22

He'll be up there given the thinness of 2B and I like Polanco a lot, but I'm not paying full price for this season

TJ

1:22

Is the Daultin Varsho tear for real? Has he gotten back some of the shine he lost from last year?

Paul Sporer

1:23

Yes, I think it's pretty legit. His previous MLB issues had a pretty awful BABIP tied to them (which isn't to say that he didn't play any role), but he's a real bat and I think we're seeing some legitimacy here

Duh

1:23

Looking ahead to 2022, Ynoa, Sandoval, Ty Megill and Elesier are all Top X SPs?

Paul Sporer

1:23

100?

Upton Funk

1:23

Enjoying the ranks so far! On Sale . . . do you see him staying around there for 2022, or are you thinking he's back to Top 10 once he's gotten a few more starts under his belt etc?

Paul Sporer

1:24

If he's mostly himself ROS, I'll have him top 10 for sure. Hell, I could have him top 10 in the next set in a couple wks. Just wanna see a bit more

purplemini

1:24

What are the chances of Robbie Ray's changes and improved control sticking next year? What historical comps both good and bad would you give to a guy who was so wild for much of his career suddenly finding control?

Paul Sporer

1:25

Hard to say what the chances are, but obviously he will be viewed very differently coming into next year. I think Darvish is an interesting comp for someone who transformed their command & control this drastically

Greg

1:25

Re: Varsho - I heard from an insider within the D-backs org that no one really views him as a catcher long-term.

Paul Sporer

1:25

Yeah that's been the line from day 1 so any season we can get those 20 games behind the dish is a boon since it'll give us another year of eligibility behind the dish

Bounceback

1:25

What qualities in hitters and pitchers do you like when considering bounce back candidates? Is it more age-related or skill-related?

Paul Sporer

1:26

K & BB rates, battled ball profiles, pitch mix for arms and of course age definitely matters, too

Steve

1:26

Love your work. What are your thoughts on Brendan Rodgers and Ty France for 2022?

Paul Sporer

1:28

Liked both this year and will stay bought in on both next year! Rodgers will be 25 and will have a full-time role if he can stay healthy while France has had a nice little breakout despite battling a wrist throughout a good part of the year (might even still be dealing w/it). Could play like another Ty from years ago: Wigginton. Solid pop, good AVG, and multi-positional eligibility

Bruno

1:28

Is Matt Manning still a strong play for dynasty?

Paul Sporer

1:28

Yes, I'm not completely ditching him based on an unimpressive debut

Chilly

1:28

Something about isan Diaz I really like for a breakout. Pt isnt there which is a prob but he seems to near the front of the next in line, line in mia. Have u looked at him enough to speak to this?

Paul Sporer

1:31

Yessss!!! Isan is my dude! I actually thought we could see something from Isan Díaz last year but then he opted for most of the 2-month season so nothing came of it. Didn't really get a shot until recently this year, but I still see some upside here that he's finally tapping into. Could be in that aforementioned Ty France mold and with the lack of depth at 2B, it plays. He probably won't have as high an AVG as France, but he could mix in 7-10 SBs over 600 PA (despite being 1-for-5 as an MLBer)

Bologna Tugboat

1:32

I traded away Buehler for Burnes a few weeks back (keeper league), and while it may seem like a net neutral trade, Burnes absolutely dominates Buehler in terms of Statcast metrics. How much stock do you put into his Statcast profile and who do you value more going forward? Same age, both great in terms of run prevention, etc...

Paul Sporer

1:36

I honestly don't put that much stock into them. I don't think we've seen enough predictive value from them to go too hard w/them

John

1:36

Is Zach Eflin worth adding in 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer

1:36

Oh ya. Good skills, solid ratios. Wires aren't offering a ton these days so I feel like Eflin would be a gem on many wires

Greg

1:38

I was a little surprised by your Nola ranking at 29 - it looks like he's just been getting unlucky this year judging from underlying stats. Do you see anything else?

Paul Sporer

1:41

Honestly, he kinda just got placed in there and I haven't done a deep-dive on him in a while. He was off the last ranking bc he was on the COVID IL, but yeah he should be 7-10 spots higher based on pitching better of late and Philly having the easiest schedule left in baseball. Good call.

Greg

1:41

Thoughts on Justin Mason ROS?

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