JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Paul Sporer

1:44

Panicked excitement? It's out of our hands now, the players have to do their thing for us. it's nerve-wracking. I was sweating every pitch from Waino, Webb, and Urquidy last night. Running it back again tonight w/Montas & Max. It might actually be good that I'm occupied this weekend (ACL concert festival here in Austin) so I'm not just living & dying over every single pitch pertaining to my players!

Clown Question Bro

1:45

Hey Paul, I know you're beating yourself up and taking the L on your podcasts for your speculation that Louis Garcia would cede the second half SP role to Christian Javier, but the whole time you were saying this, they had similar IP totals with Garcia only being about 10-12 IP ahead at any given time. Did you take that into consideration?

Paul Sporer

1:47

Both actually hit a wall a bit in September, but I'm still so surprised that they didn't switch their roles at any pt. I wasn't as strident Kopech in for Cease, but also felt somewhat strongly about that, too.

Big Joey

1:48

What are you expectations for Verlander next year? 200 IP :)

Paul Sporer

1:49

He's a freak so I won't rule it out!! But I'll have him down for something like 170 or so

Apocolocyntosis de Santana

1:49

Matt Olson, Jesse Winker, Marcus Semien, Cedric Mullens, and Mitch Haniger all had career years. Who do you think peaked and will regress, and who do you think has genuinely made the jump to the next level?

Paul Sporer

1:55

Matty O is definitely my firmest belief that he can hold a lot of these gains w/the K%. Winker's AVG was the only real change as he still only played 110 gms and can't hit vL. I think he can maintain this level, but he'll remain maddening w/the health. Mullins at 30-30 is probably a peak, but I think there's a sturdy enough floor to take him in the late 1st/early 2nd.

We thought '19 was Semien's peak and he said hold my beer, but I'm still going to say this yr is the peak. But again, I'll buy the regressed version as I think he will still be v good. Haniger stayed healthy which I think a lot of ppl believed was all he needed to pop off. IF he can stay healthy, I don't see a major fall-off, tbh.

Salty

1:55

Poor Tyler Jung - guy's rocking two top 10 ME teams, and he hears crickets thanks to Phil's incredible season. Congrats to you, Paul and good luck these final few days. It can't be easy putting some strong opinions out there knowing you'll get killed if they go south, so it's good to see you getting success when they hit.

Paul Sporer

1:56

He also has the 19th tm!!! Just a brilliant season from him, but ya it has unfortunately been overshadowed by Phil in terms of mainstream hype. I think Tyler can comfort himself w/the stacks of cash he's about to earn!

1:59

Also, thank you for the well wishes. It's going to be a lot of fun and I really hope I can hang on

Big Joey

1:59

Albies has had a very nice season, basically 30-20, but only a 106wRC+, why is that so low? Is he basically the second coming of Brandon Phillips? Are we witnessing peak-Albies?

Paul Sporer

2:02

That's a sharp comp that has some viability to it. I think Albies will still have a strong camp of detractors just as Phillips always seemed to, but I love Albies and think he can maintain these counting category outputs while pushing his AVG back up (.257 this yr w/a .273 career level)

Rodney

2:02

Managing a dynasty keeper with roster and payroll limitations. Can keep McClanahan, Rodon and Clase - getting one of them at a discounted rate. Leaning McClanahan because of injury history (Rodon) and role (Clase). Which of them would you apply the best value to going forward?

Paul Sporer

2:03

Yes, definitely McClanahan. I love what Rodon has done this year, but I just can't trust him to put up another full season at the price he is going to cost in '22 drafts and I'm always leery of investing too heavily in closers

sean

2:05

starting brendan rodgers over votto today?

Paul Sporer

2:05

If he's in the lineup, I'm OK w/it since they're in Coors & Votto draws Rodon

mike

2:05

whyyy am i scared of starting cole @TOR?!

Paul Sporer

2:06

Bc it's Toronto and Cole has been hit hard at times this year, but I can't really envision sitting him unless you're just flat out protecting ratios and basically not starting anyone

Chris

2:06

Do either of S Gray,N Eovaldi or Luis Garcia lower my WHIP from 1.166 tonight?

Paul Sporer

2:07

Eovaldi is the best bet to do so, though all three can do it. If you're only starting one, it's Eovaldi at BAL

Zach

2:08

Should I roll the dice with Wood today vs ARI, or roll the dice with Burnes on Saturday vs LAD hoping they let him at least go for a QS for his cy young case?

Paul Sporer

2:09

If you're only able to pick one, I think it's gotta be Wood just bc Burnes could be limited or sat entirely.

BringBackDeSpanielHair

2:10

BTW, can we please get people to shut up about Soto? My home league might let him slip to the 8th pick in first round again if we don't hype him up too much.

Paul Sporer

2:10

lololol well he's gonna be heavily discussed in the NL MVP convo so I'm not sure that's going to work out well on the shutting up about him lol

MLBTOPDX

2:10

My Point is that analytics Kill what’s good about baseball and frankly shame on it which is The Unexpected and Unexplained. The root things that make baseball what it is

Paul Sporer

2:10

I just don't agree w/that in the slightest, sorry

2:12

You can find instances of ppl who are a bit too deep into the numbers and seem to have lost their joy for the game, but acknowledging playoff odds and understanding what they are saying at any given moment in a season isn't a problem to me

2:12

Lux has looked great this month. How do you reckon he will get on next year?

Paul Sporer

2:18

It's BABIP-fueled (.436) w/modest counting cats (1 HR, 1 SB in the 56 PA), but it's encouraging to see some success. I still like Lux and will be in next yr as I don't think this Sept. performance will push his price too high.

I don't see LAD re-signing Seager or Taylor (maybe 1 but I'd be floored if they bring back both) so there will be a real shot for Lux to be their next Taylor playing daily all over the place. He's been a disappointment in that he hasn't been great off rip, but his entire career is still essentially an injury-shortened year of play (528 PA) and he's only 24. He has breakout upside while being priced at a level that can't hurt you if he doesn't completely explode.

Jay

2:18

Can keep 12, and am wondering about Varsho. He's hitting .296, with 10HR and 5 SB in the second half, which as a catcher is quite valuable. Has he really come into his own, or is this second half not to be trusted?

Paul Sporer

2:21

I'm a fan. He has 2 of my favorite traits for fantasy: non-catching catcher (I mean, you have to catch enough to maintain eligibility, but he's not a full-timer and still plays when he's not catching) and a running catcher (9 SB in 408 MLB PA). With 550 PA, I think he can be a 20 HR/10 SB guy relatively easily and the upside something like 30/20

billyjojimbob

2:21

Dearest Paul.......I have been leading my 10 team roto league ALL YEAR, aside from a few random days. It's always been fairly close though (within 5-7 points). I'm in the upper tier of most categories and own most of the pitching ones. Going into the last weekend, do you have a general nugget of wisdom to impart on how to NOT lose?

Paul Sporer

2:22

Best I could think would be sitting medium-to-fringe pitchers if you are in position to lose anything in ERA and WHIP without any real upside to gain. Otherwise, it's in the hands of your players and you just gotta see how it goes

>this guy<

2:22

Lane Thomas is a guy for real now?

Paul Sporer

2:26

I'll have some interest as long as he's tracking for a full-time in Washington next year. He'll be 26 and looks like one of those solid glue guys you get late that volumes his way to a quality season while also holding a tinge of upside, espec. if he's turned lose on the bases a bit, though he needs to be sharper in his choices of when to go in able to flex that speed (93rd percentile sprint speed, but just 65% success rate in 115 attempts in the minors)

billyjojimbob

2:26

good advice as usual. thanks so much for doing these all year, dude. Super helpful!!!!

Paul Sporer

2:27

You're welcome and good luck!!

joe

2:27

whats going on with justin turner? only start vs lefties ROS?

Paul Sporer

2:30

Is that being reported as something? He's started 4 of the last 5 vR