JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:53

Very fair swap!!!

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan

1:53

we going to have a spring training?>

Paul Sporer

1:53

Yes, I'm still confident right now

Vince

1:53

FYI … I enjoy your podcasts w Justin — you’re different analysis make for good dialogue!

Paul Sporer

1:54

Tyvm! It wouldn't be fun if we just fully agreed on everything. I think we have a great rapport and we're not afraid to fully disagree on things!

Jack B

1:54

How do you think the young core of the Tigers rotation (Mize, Skubal, Manning, etc.) will perform this year?

Paul Sporer

1:55

I'm biggest on Skubal from a fantasy standpoint given his K potential. I still see Mize's peak as peak Jordan Zimmermann statistically though he might not start hitting that until next year. Manning is a post-hype prospect that is an easy dollar lottery ticket at this point if you have any belief in the pedigree

Daro

1:55

Would you trade Robbie Ray for Torkelson in a 10keepers 12 teams league?

Paul Sporer

1:56

On its face, I have no problem with it

ScottTINSTAAPP

1:56

If you had to guess at the % breakdown of PT for Phillies SS between Didi, Stott, or other, what would it be?

Paul Sporer

1:59

I think it really depends on if Didi bounces back. If he keeps playing like 2021, Stott could be up in a month, but if Didi finds his footing again, they can give Stott some real time in AAA. Stott could force his way into the mix if he dominates AAA, but I'd project around 300 PA for him at this juncture

Rachel

1:59

Piggybacking off the Mullins question, sounds like we should still take the chance on him, but I'm wondering would you rather have Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez over him? Thanks again!

Paul Sporer

1:59

Tucker, Mullins, Teoscar is my order

JO D

2:00

I have to cut 2 guys in an AL ONLY Scoresheet Simulation Dynasty (I have Jose Ramirez at 3B & Vlad at 1B so Moncada would be a DH) Montas, Darvish, Bassitt, McCullers, F Valdez, Moncada. Which 2 do you let go?

Paul Sporer

2:01

Probably McCullers (health) and Bassitt (regression candidate). I think Bassitt will still be a useful arm, but closer to that 3.86 SIERA than his 3.15 ERA

2:01

Hey Paul, do you have a guess on ABs for Brujan?

Paul Sporer

2:04

In my heart? 600!!! In actuality, probably more like 350-400. Depends if they move Kiermaier, too. Bottom line, I'm taking the gamble on Brujan bc I still see substantial upside

Kate

2:04

Dug into AJ Pollock recently and was kind of surprised at how great he's been on a per game basis the last two years. Is he a random healthy season (no small task for him) away from being like a top 25 OF?

Paul Sporer

2:06

I wrote about him in the LA roster review and marveled at his excellence - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2021-roster-review-los-angeles-dodgers/ -- I think the obvious injury issues are covered in his 225 ADP so I moved him up the rankings and now have a lot more interest in him than I did before diving in

B’Ryce Hammer

2:06

Paul, this is gonna sound so sad. But I’m thinking about quitting fantasy baseball for a bit. I love it too much, and it’s taking important brain space away from more important things in life.

Paul Sporer

2:07

That's a bummer, but I greatly respect the ability to prioritize and understand when you need to step back. A year off might be the perfect fix and then you dive back in. You'll be welcomed back whenever you're ready! We're always open!

Marnell

2:07

What's your take on Isiah Kiner-Falefa's value this year? Will the stolen bases bump him up in your rankings?

Paul Sporer

2:07

😡😡😡

2:11

lol, I don't know if this just referencing last year's memes w/IKF, but if it's not, he worthless without C eligibility

Jack B

2:13

I don't like the argument that "Bonds & Clemens were hall of famers before they took steroids", I think it's kind of a lazy argument. I do think they should be in the HOF because the league did not test, suspend, or reprimand any player for using PEDs, rather they tried to cover it up and continue to profit off of it. However, I wouldn't vote for A-Rod because when he was caught (both times), the league was policing it. Agree, disagree, or 1/2 agree?

Paul Sporer

2:15

I also don't love that talking point. I just don't care about PEDs, tbh, so they're both easily in for me and I'd take A-Rod, too. I am OK drawing the line at the testing the way you're saying, but I choose to just not concern myself w/being the PED police. The biggest thing for me is I can't see Bud Selig in the HOF - the commish of this alleged awful era - and then decide to leave out a handful of guys and make them wear then entire era. Just can't do it.

weekendatbidens

2:15

Kirk is going really high as people are big believers in his underlying metrics. However, he had a big blind spot in his splits, are projections missing this even when there is a struggle for playing time?

Paul Sporer

2:17

He was dreadful vR, but with a .211 BABIP. Splits don't become statistically sound for a loooong time so I imagine projections essentially ignore them, but it is completely fair to question the playing time right now. They have 3 legit Cs (Kirk's defense isn't near Jansen/McGuire, but he can hang enough) and a fourth who is rising SO fast (Gabriel Moreno, who really impressed me in AFL). I feel like we'd have some more clarity if it wasn't a lockout bc they'd like have made a move of someone by now.

Nick

2:17

What you doing with Muncy? Is this like Carl Crawford years ago or will he be a draft steal

Paul Sporer

2:18

I've been punting, tbh. I'm nervous about the health to the point where he didn't even make my first run of rankings. He'll be in the next set, but I don't think I'm drafting him until we get some more clarity

Kate

2:18

What do you make of a finesse guy like Kyle Hendricks who suddenly loses the feel for his breaking / offspeed pitches like he did last year? I expected velo to be his downfall eventually, so this path to struggles kind of surprised me.

Paul Sporer

2:21

This was always the concern, right? That his margin for error was so small. However that doesn't mean that those who were against him can beat their chests bc they finally came up right after 7 good seasons, lol. Was it a blip and he can get back to normal or a true downshift toward his SIERA and now he'll be a low-to-mid 4.00s guy going forward? I wouldn't be surprised if he bounced back, but I'll say I'm not buying back in. It's just SO ratio-dependent that I don't really see the upside even at a discounted price

Vic

2:21

Vlad Jr or Jose Ramirez? 15 teamer 5 x 5.

Paul Sporer

2:22

I lean Ramirez, but they're razor close. If you have a gameplan for the SBs in rds 2, 3, 4, then I have no issue taking Vlad. I understand the desire to leave the 1st round w/some SBs, but I think some take it too far w/their refusal to draft someone like Vlad

Jack

2:22

Am I crazy to still love Senzel because of power speed, pedigree and xstats?

Paul Sporer

2:23

You're not crazy bc he is SOOOO cheap that the love can't really hurt you so even if you push 80-90 picks over ADP (461 ADP since 1/1), it's still not at all expensive

Marcus

2:26

I am saying it now, Ripken, Gwynn, Bagwell, Biggio, Chipper, Griffey, all of them did roids, Gwynn's power peaked late 30s, who can play 3000 straight without roids? It is maddening

Paul Sporer

2:27

And all the guys in the 60s and 70s w/their amphetamines just out in the open but for some reason we just pretend that's some quaint thing but PEDs are this heinous unspeakable act? I just don't get it

Sexton

2:28

Kirk or Ruiz at C this year and beyond.

Paul Sporer

2:28

I have Ruiz 8, Kirk 9 so I lean Ruiz and his PT is much more firm

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