JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Brine shrimp

2:01

Why do people think kershaw will retire if he doesnt join the dodgers or rangers? He is only 33. Some other club will spend to get him

Paul Sporer

2:01

I'm not sure. I don't think he does. Maybe bc he's accomplished so much and has degenerative back issues, but he's still SO good

Kate

2:05

How much better can we expect Jon Gray to be in Texas?

Paul Sporer

2:12

I think quite a bit better. He's always been weird w/the better ERAs in Colorado, but that doesn't mean he can't significantly improve away from Coors. Plus, new Globe Life is pitcher-friendly. I think he can be a mid-3s arm w/around a K per inning!

Guest

2:18

Cody Morris or Brandon Williamson?

Paul Sporer

2:19

I love Morris! I definitely give Cleveland SPs some extra love bc of how well they've developed arm, but Morris has the skills, too!!

Guest

2:19

Paul, call me crazy but Mookie Betts and Max Kepler have awfully close statcast expected stats. Any chance Max can provide close to top 100 value?

Paul Sporer

2:24

Ya we were just mentioning Kep-dawg a bit earlier! I'm a big fan, but top 100 might be tough (unless he keeps running, he was 10-for-10 last yr). One issue is I think he's had these expected BA splits before bc he has low BABIPs, but we've never really seen him reach a high BABIP and part of that is how he hits the ball (lotta flyballs). If he can hit around .240 with 25/10, I'd love that at his price!

ksk315

2:24

Do Oakland pitchers take a hit if/when Olson and Chapman are dealt?

Paul Sporer

2:25

Somewhat as it hits 'em two ways - offense and defense. But I still like the talent of several of their guys so I definitely wouldn't sink them in my rankings by any stretch

2:25

What's your outlook on Casey Mize? For this year and as a longer-term dynasty option? (Context: would be acquiring in a futures-oriented trade)

Paul Sporer

2:26

Pardon me for those who've heard me say this one a bunch bc it's my go-to, but I see his peak similar to peak Jordan Zimmermann. Innings eating #2 type who doesn't have elite Ks, but his volume counters the rate and still winds up delivering some really strong seasons.

Kate

2:26

Does Victor Robles have a full-time role in DC as things stand? I know he's been disappointing, but he seems like exactly the type of guy they should be giving PT to in a year like this.

Paul Sporer

2:28

Yes, I'd be surprised if they played someone like Andrew Stevenson over him. He's still just 25 and while it's been bleak since '20, his defense and the promise of some bat development are enough to keep him a full-timer... at least to start the year. If he puts up another sub-70 wRC+ through 2 mos., then I understand them starting to move on

Paul

2:28

% chance Opening Day is in April? Gut feeling.

Paul Sporer

2:28

45%

Jacob

2:28

Which player do you feel you have the worst read on this year? You just throw your hands up and shrug and that’s your analysis on them

Paul Sporer

2:28

This is a great question... lemme scan my rankings for a few names

2:30

Austin Riley is one. My gut tells me to pullback a bit on the hype, but his season was excellent and he was someone who I had expectations of after seeing him in the Arizona Fall League. I have to make sure that's not just confirmation bias, though, where I give him full credit just bc I *thought* he'd eventually break out. Bottom line is I've just kinda left him up for other managers and never draft him

2:32

Lucas Giolito is one on the pitching side. I don't get the warm & fuzzies about him the way his proponents do, but I'm also not out on him. He's been great since '19 and he was heralded prospect, too, so why am I not just trusting him as an unquestioned ace? I don't know. I wind up just kinda shrugging & moving on to someone like Webb, Musgrove, or Alcantara in that range

Kate

2:33

Our good friend Nick Pollack is kinda down on Luis Garcia (the pitcher, not one of the infielders) after he fell off at the end of last year. I usually agree with Nick, but I feel like he's off on this one and Garcia will be dope again after an offseason of rest. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer

2:35

I stand on your side here. I need to check up on Nick's issues w/him, but the skills are impeccable and I'm not too bothered by the playoffs bc it's not like it was all bad. It was just up and down.

Chuck

2:35

Who are one top-5 catcher and one late catcher you're getting in drafts?

Paul Sporer

2:36

I'll give a couple for each category instead of just one: Grandal/Varsho in the top 5 (Varsho is 6 in ADP, but I have him 5th) and Luis Torrens, Austin Nola, and James McCann late

Alex in Austin

2:37

Sticking with your Tiger's love can you give a 3 word synopsis on each of these pitchers: Skubal, Mize, Manning?

Paul Sporer

2:37

Skubal - must stop homers | Mize - peak Jordan Zimmermann | Manning - don't give up

Marnell

2:37

If you chose to "wait" on any position during your draft, which position would you wait on and draft later in the draft?

Paul Sporer

2:39

1B is somewhere I'm definitely comfortable in the middle & latter portions of the pool. Lowe, Voit, Mancini, Schoop, Tellez, Kirilloff, and Aguilar all going 150 or later!

Faygo

2:39

Did I make the correct move in keeping Bauer in rd 13 over Clase in rd 16?

Paul Sporer

2:40

Impossible to say w/out knowing if he pitches this yr. It's just such an unknown.

Matt

2:40

Dynasty league, own Ke'Bryan Hayes. You hanging on or is it okay to flip for a guy like Logan Gilbert, Luis Garcia or Snell? Worried he will be ordinary and value will lower.

Paul Sporer

2:41

I generally prefer to buy the hitters in dynasty leagues and I'm super keen on Hayes in particular so I'd rather hold. However, I won't be steadfast as to say you cannot move him. If landing a solid upside arm like that fits your team needs, any of those deals would be OK. I think you're taking on more risk to do it (not that Hayes is immune to injury, but pitchers def get hurt more), but it's defensible on the right squad

Big Jilm

2:41

If you invested a high draft pick in Hader or Hendriks, would you back up a RP2 with another reliable option or throw darts at the end of the draft? Seems pointless not to fully commit but mock drafts are making me rethink it.

Paul Sporer

2:46

I tend to commit when I do this. I just got Hader in the 2nd of TGFBI and I plan to back him up with a solid 2 in the Melancon, T.Rogers, Doval, Kimbrel realm

Doval isn't super firm bc we don't know if he's THE GUY and Kimbrel is still on the White Sox, but I'd be really surprised if they didn't trade him to close somewhere. REEEEALLY surprised.

2:48

I also think Taylor Rogers is floating under the radar a bit. He's def their best RP which doesn't guarantee saves in today's game, but I'm still willing to bet on him right now. A post-lockout move could mess it up, but he's my guy in Minnesota

Saul Porer

2:48

My work blocked Fangraphs! Such tyranny!

Paul Sporer

2:48

How dare they!!

BOFFO

2:48

Zunino led the majors in not just Barrel/BBE, but also Barrel/PA. Higher max eV too. If barrels are indeed a skill, why can't Zunino hit 35 dongs?

Paul Sporer

2:49

I mean, we know he was great last year. All the exit velo and hard hit and barrel stuff is just another way of saying he was great last year. My concern is maintaining it and I don't really see it at this level

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Paul Sporer hosts a chat