JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:32

Brutal start, but he can turn that around in a week with the hot streaks he can go on. I'm still holding for now, even in 1-catcher leagues

Farmer Ted (not actually a farmer)

1:33

(following up). I.e what is the range of total rostered players when you are talking about “a shallow league “

Paul Sporer

1:34

Around 250 or so in 10-teamers including reserves

1:34

Dylan Carlson worth holding onto? His statcast page is atrocious. And despite decent stats last year doesn't look too hot then either. But man. 1st-3rd percentile in a bunch of stuff.

Paul Sporer

1:34

Shallow league cut if you're targeting someone on the wire, but I'm holding out in 15s or deeper right now.

Mooseknuckle Curve

1:34

On the topic of Votto and your answer, this is my current suffering as I drafted Voltto and Voit back to back around rounds 12 and 13 to cover my 1st base options. I have tinkered with a Rowdy Tellez/Ji-Man combo but two platoon players are rough on the bench. I dropped Rowdy to grab Josh Naylor and I have Triston Casas brewing in my NA spot. Out of those options, do you like any ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:36

Big Tellez and Naylor fan! Tellez shouldn't even be platooned, tbh, but I get it since they have Brosseau. He's (Tellez) pretty good vL, though

1:36

Bieber is continuing to put up solid stat lines in spite of his diminished stuff and giving up solid contact. Obvious play seems to be to sell on him before his results catch up to the change in his stuff, or is he the type who can succeed with a 90 MPH FB?

Paul Sporer

1:38

I think he can succeed. I've watched virtually all of his innings this season and I haven't really understood the panic. I get why ppl were panicked in draft season bc of the shoulder - I was, too, and took a pass on him bc I just didn't have a good read on things - but he's been great so far. He was never a velo god before and his HardHit rate is actually the lowest since '18, so I think the panic was overblown. At some point, the skills and results have to matter more than the lowered velo. Yes there is health risk, but that's the case for literally anyone who is pitching so if I drafted him, I'd just enjoy my ace

Isaac

1:38

How long is your leash for Franmil Reyes?

Paul Sporer

1:40

Definitely depends on league size. He's the kind of guy who turns everything around in a 10-14 day span with like 6-7 HRs. I know it's been a common refrain so far in this chat, but I'm fine if you gotta move on in a 10 tm league and have someone good on the wire while 12s are borderline and 15s I'm definitely holding.

Beeee

1:41

Hey Paul, I noticed (late) last night that the Bullpen Report for today was posted around midnight (EST). Was that one off or is it possible to have this happen on the regular?

(being able to see it the night before the waiver claims go in is key in terms of taking advantage of picking up a RP who might scoop a save if the regular closer needs a rest...I'm in an ultra competitive (432 player universe) roto league where this kind of thing can give ya an edge because finding saves is a full-on knife fight!)

Paul Sporer

1:41

That would be one for Jason, who does excellent work with the BR! https://twitter.com/JasonRRMartinez

Derek

1:41

Who do you like better in the middle infield rest of season rest of season IKF, A Rosario, N Lopez, or Lux? Rank in order of performance please.

Paul Sporer

1:42

I think I'd go reverse order of how you list 'em. Definitely Lux atop the list by a lot, the other 3 are close. Maybe IKF over Rosario

Mike

1:43

How should we value Taylor Ward in dynasty formats?

Paul Sporer

1:46

I'm only in 1 dynasty lg so it's not my strongest format, but he's a plus hitter with a full-time role atop a strong lineup.

Kyle

1:46

Why does Fangraphs say Snell has a 3.08 FIP when he hasn't pitched at all this year? Did you manually edit that in?

Paul Sporer

1:47

lol yes i did

Erik

1:47

Why did I draft Adalberto Mondesi anywhere? Will I make that mistake next season?

Paul Sporer

1:47

I mean you're really only hoping for 100 gms so this is part of the deal. As long as you're comfortable w/the in & out of the lineup, there's nothing wrong w/drafting him

FireStorm

1:47

Paul. When are answer questions about 10 team or 12 team leagues, I assume you mean MLB and not single league. Is there a way we can convert your conclusions about 10 team or 12 team (or more) to single league (AL or NL)? I think about this in reference to your recent answer about Donaldson.

Paul Sporer

1:48

Yes, always mixers. AL/NL only is too rare to answer broadly including those lgs. Those are deeper than 15 team mixers so when I say 15s and deeper, that includes single lgs. This is also why lg context is important to answering questions and stuff like "thoughts about so-and-so" is kind of useless (with all due respect to those who've put in those Qs)

FireStorm

1:48

Time to move on from Loaisaga in a Hold + Save league?

Paul Sporer

1:49

Yes. No need to hold onto a flailing RP in SVHD since there are always throngs of options

France

1:49

Are you proud of me for selecting Ty France 146th overall before the season started?

Paul Sporer

1:50

Indeed! Big fan of him myself. He was my Hot Take for Seattle in their Roster Review wherein I said he'd hit 35 HRs. That's obviously a bold prediction, but the point was to pump him up as a power upside candidate

Erik

1:50

Wander Franco is striking out even less than last year and has upped his barrel rate from 4.9% to 11.3%. How dumb was I to worry that a player as talented and young as him would remain as basically an empty batting average guy? 25+ homers seems easy for him at this point.

Paul Sporer

1:53

You and me both! I just thought it'd be like 18 HRs and 8 SBs with good AVG/R and decent RBIs. That's good but didn't feel worth a 4th rounder so I passed in all lgs but one where I got him in the 6th. He's amazing. I thought it might be a year before the major breakout and btw, we're not wrong yet. It still has been just a month, though obviously he looks amazing. I'll gladly eat my L if he continues to dominate like this and enjoy him in that one league where I got him

#notapril

1:53

Ditch Heaney for Houck?

Paul Sporer

1:53

Definitely

1:53

Sale for Kepler and Ward in a points league (Zips has Kepler as a top 30 OF in this format). Is this a fair trade?

Paul Sporer

1:53

I'm definitely in for this trade getting the 2 hitters

dave in slc

1:53

how do you feel about what you have seen from Torkelson so far? got him in my al only keeper and may have over paid at draft for 22 but thought he could be a stud

Paul Sporer

1:54

I've been pretty impressed, tbh. The K rate should come down (just a 9% SwStr, but 31% K) and you can tell he belongs. I think he will be completely fine and I'd gladly buy him anywhere he's available

Zach

1:55

I mean this genuinely trying to learn. When you post SP rankings, or same with PitcherList, how exactly am I supposed to utilize those? They seem to change weekly so once I use it to draft, what do the updates represent? Seems like a guy can drop or rise significantly, but if I look at the list today can I say value SP15 more than SP 27 in a trade, even though next week SP27 could be bumped to SP19? I've been caught using then seeing the guy I acquired is now lower than the guy I traded away because of a bad start

Paul Sporer

1:55

I don't do weekly lists so you'd have to direct that Q to Nick and he's always happy to answer stuff during his Twitch streams.

I am the Walrus

1:55

Is Woodruff OK? How does he fare ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:57

Yeah, is there any reason to believe otherwise? Essentially BABIP'd yesterday otherwise I don't see any reasons for concern.

Tim

1:57

A Yarbrough role over a starter gives a pitcher a "MUCH" better chance for wins? I'd say more starters get wins than Yarbough's