JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:11

Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out!!

Kettles

1:14

Which side of this deal would you prefer in a points format and by how much: K Marte/Wheeler or Buxton/P Lopez?

Paul Sporer

1:15

I don't have a huge split here, but I'd prefer Marte/Wheeler slightly

Cornfield

1:15

Would you prefer Morel or L Gurriel as a short term option?

Paul Sporer

1:16

Gotta go Morel. Still in on Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but Morel has been amazing and the added speed pushes him ahead here

Jeff Chisholm

1:16

Paul Sporer

1:16

Geddy

1:16

Bryan Reynolds made to our waiver wire. I am in need of OF and HR's. What percent FAAB do you think is warranted?

Paul Sporer

1:17

How deep is the league? Feel like you prob gotta go 20-25% at the very least

Jim Leyland Palmer

1:17

Not so much for fantasy, but how do you feel about Faedo's role and future for the Tigers? He definitely got lost in the shuffle a bit in the minors with injury and lack of performance compared to "the big 3". But he's been great this year (esp considering had very little rehab coming of TJ before coming up), and Mize and Manning are on pace for lost years. Is he firmly in the rotation picture when everyones healthy? Quality mid rotation arm in general? Could he be the #2 behind Skubal when all is said and done?

Paul Sporer

1:21

I've been so pleased with Faedo. He is one of a handful of bright spots that have been overshadowed by the overall team failure. Faedo was a one-time legit prospect but injuries derailed his ascent. If he could be more consistent with his whiffs (brilliant today w/17 in 82 pitches), he could definitely emerge into a solid 2/3-type. Until then, he is more of a good 4 for the Tigers and capable team streamer in fantasy

Ryan

1:21

Who do you prefer ROS: Gavin Lux or Luis Garcia (Nationals SS obviously)

Paul Sporer

1:24

Still Lux, but I'm pleased by Garcia doing well in Triple-A. I feel he's been given up on by a lot of folks despite being just 22 yrs old!

1:24

Thanks for doing this Paul. Jose Miranda, Josh Rojas, or Hunter Dozier a better bet for a third base fill-in? And would you be ready to drop Trevor Rogers at this point?

Paul Sporer

1:27

I'm really trying to avoid cutting Rogers. I know it's going HORRIBLY right now, but I'm still looking to stash him and see if he can rebound in the next 2-3 starts. I'd go Rojas if you need the speed, Miranda if you just want best per PA... though he doesn't play daily so that hurts if you're in a 12 or lower

Teflonzo

1:27

Bo Bichette's walk rate is up to 11% in the last ~30 days. Something to monitor or an outlier compared to his career walk rate of 6.0?

Paul Sporer

1:29

it could just be teams being more cautious w/him during a hot streak or a concerted effort by him to be more patient and in turn the results have come with it. definitely worth monitoring.

Tony Soprano

1:30

Why do you like the Tigers?

Paul Sporer

1:31

Grew up around Detroit, so it's not Maybelline, I was born with it (sweet reference to a 90s makeup company slogan... super topical!)

sean

1:31

Is Martin Perez for real? Where does he rank ROS in points league compared to Pablo Lopez, Walker B, Rodon, Nola and Montas?

Paul Sporer

1:35

He really isn't. The HR suppression is driving the success and he is definitely contributing to that with the GB% spike, but outside of that there have been no discernible skill changes, putting most of the success on his unsustainable HR rate and BABIP. He will undoubtedly regress and at the very least be his normal mid-4s self from here forward. Or baseball could be super cruel and regression could bring him back to a mid-4s for the season.

This is Jason Vargas 2017, the season from which Nick Pollack's Vargas Rule was born, and even with a 2.22 ERA through June, Vargas ended at 4.16 which was right in line with the guy he'd been the 6 yrs before that (3.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP in 810 IP).

Hank Scorpio

1:35

Hey Paul, appreciate the chat. What's your outlook on Juan Soto ROS? I think his slash line will normalize and I assume we'll see him get back to batting .300 and a .900 OPS (at least), but what about the counting stats? Once Cruz & Bell are gone in 6 weeks, will he have enough team context to rack up Runs & RBI? Or is he never going to get a good pitch to see again and pick up 150 BBs? I'm just wondering how you think he'll rank by season's end and if selling shares of him is a viable strategy. I just don't see a scenario where he's the legit Top 5 fantasy player as he was projected to start

Paul Sporer

1:40

He prob won't be a top 5 guy given the suppression RBI via the BB, but guys don't get drafted top 5 because they WILL finish there, but rather because they are unlikely to finish outside say the top 50 players or so with a chance to be the best in the league. He is still pacing for 34 HR, 91 R, and 14 SB. His AVG lagged last year (not this much, but dipped to .263 in mid-June) and he hit .343 over his final 421 PA. I don't really see any reason to sell him. Yes he's pacing for 64 RBI and even acknowledging that WAS isn't good, we still expected more than that, but you can bridge the gap while everything is fine (R/HR/SB) or will be (AVG). I'd be more open to buying Soto than selling him. He is one of the game's best without question.

Catchers

1:40

How would you rank Stephenson, Varsho, and Adley ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:41

Just as they are listed here

Royal scam

1:41

Seriously considering dropping Bergman for Espinal in a 10 team H2H. What say you?

Paul Sporer

1:43

Surely you have someone worse you can cut. No shot Bregman is your worst guy. Just absolutely no shot. I realize it's been blah, but he still has BRILLIANT plate skills and a 117 wRC+. The .219 AVG is booty, but 18 HR/84 RBI/75 R pace is hardly cuttable, even in a 10. That's a downside pace, he'll have a heater and get the AVG back on track (.227 BABIP). I'd be more apt to buy Bregman than cut him.

Kate

1:43

Think Kyle Muller or Huascar Ynoa get another shot in the rotation for the Barves this year?

Paul Sporer

1:43

Knowing pitcher injuries, probably both at some point

Big Joey

1:43

Why don't the Royals just cut C. Santana and call up Pasquantino...so annoying!

Paul Sporer

1:45

I'm a Santana fan over his career, but my goodness what are we doing here? I know some of Santana's under-the-hood hints at a rebound espec. w/the .186 BABIP, but we said that last year when he had a .227 and in '20 when he had a .212. He's a career .260 BABIP guy. I just don't see keeping Pasquantino and Pratto down to keep playing Santana

Kate

1:49

Senzel seems to be showing a bit of life lately. Any upside left there? Seems to be very little power this year which wasn't really a problem I was expecting.

Paul Sporer

1:51

Definitely has some upside if he can ever find consistent health so I can see him cycling around the league as multiple fantasy teams take a shot on him for the SB potential

Bill

1:51

Santander's walk rate has dropped, still better than last season. He seemed elite the first month. What's going on?

Paul Sporer

1:51

There are spikes and dips like this across a given season, but they are just more noticeable in April when they are the first stats on the sheet. That's why we don't make rash decisions in April/May

1:53

Santander still has a career-best 8.9% SwStr with his K% down 3 pts to 20% as well, so there are multiple positives in his profile. As it heats in Camden, I wouldn't be surprised to see a power spike, too. I still quite like Santander.

Aye Chihuahua

1:53

You wrote up Mitch White in today's Boxscore Bits. How should we value him RoS given talent and opportunity? Top-75 arm?

Paul Sporer

1:55

He is REALLY hard to judge on any sort of long-term level because we don't know when he will be in the rotation. SP White is a top 75 arm, I can go with that, but just be mindful that we won't have a firm handle on when he will be starting as Kershaw & Heaney work their way back (not that either is a bastion of health, nor is the rest of the rotation, but White is unquestionably 7th man up when all healthy)

TigersFan

1:55

Can you promise yet to not to rank Snell top 30 for the 2023 rankings?

Paul Sporer

1:58

I mean it's easy to be down after a bad start, but prior to yesterday his core skills still look a lot like the Cy season. It's health, not talent, and I'm always going to bet on talent profiles hoping to spike the health luck. If you don't like that kind of profile, I totally get it, but if he winds up with 140+ IP with these skills (well, this swing&miss but a BB rate more in the 9-10% range), I'll still be pretty high on him.

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Paul Sporer hosts a chat