JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat | 7/13/2022

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Bob

1:22

Do you think Taylor Ward has hit a wall. He seems to be on a downslide. Maybe the All-Star break will give him a refreshing break and come back strong?

trophy

1

Paul Sporer

1:24

More like expected regression. I'm a big fan, but never saw him as a 1.000 OPS level talent. I think he's a mid-to-high .800s. If healthy, he's still v good. A lot of the regression came in one particularly down stretch when he was also nicked (.409 OPS in 53 PA) but in his last 20 it's more of a palatable regression (.774 OPS, 2 HR in 86 PA).

JC

1:24

Bregman seems back to being Bregman. What do you expect in the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer

1:25

I really liked him for a bounceback this year and remain in that camp!

kevinthecomic

1:25

Thanks for chatting, Paul! I have a roster crunch coming in my dynasty league as some minor leaguers lose their minor league eligibility. I have to drop five of the following: Daniel Lynch, Dennis Santana, Kyle Isbel, Luis Gonzalez (SF), Jake Meyers, Edward Olivares, Randal Grichuk, Jonathan Villar, Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta. I would like to keep one of Villar and Escobar for MI backup, but no restrictions/implications otherwise. I’m thinking the two pitchers and Isbel are three of the five. Not sure for the last two though. Categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS and K-BB, ERA, WHIP, QS, SV+H. I am in contention this year. Thanks again!

Paul Sporer

1:29

Tough group. I think Isbel could fall into a full role when Beni and maybe Michael A. Taylor (good thing they let him f'n pitch for no good reason!!!) so I'm inclined to hang onto him. Lynch and Santana easy 2 off rip (even though I like Lynch a bit long-term). Peralta could be dealt into a smaller role. Escobar's production is pretty dry, so keep Villar for the MI you want and some SB upside. And then for the 5th, I wonder if Grichy is the cut. I understood the excitement of him going to Coors, but he's been rough with a .779 OPS at home & .520 on the road, so I think he's the 5th.

Micah

1:29

Who are you grabbing if you need steals and have to pick one? Taveras or Baddoo

Paul Sporer

1:29

I'm not quitting Baddoo! I've taken my appropriate L for spring hype as anyone who jumped on board with me and drafted him has definitely cut him at this point, but I'm diving back in and hoping to see him shine in the 2H!

Deathclaw

1:29

Is Yordan possibly the best hitter in baseball right now? Underlying stats make a good case.

Paul Sporer

1:30

He is firmly in the convo!

Clemson

1:30

If the Orioles keep this up are they really going to sell at the deadline?

Paul Sporer

1:31

They should absolutely sell Jorge Lopez in the same way the Mariners traded Kendall Graveman. Baltimore's surging bullpen is a major reason why they're playing so well in the first place so they can easily replace him with Bautista. Unless the offers are just nothing, Baltimore would be insane to not trade a 29-yr old waiver RP spiking a big season

James

1:31

Hi Paul, Is there anything physically wrong with Kopech and Giolito

Paul Sporer

1:34

Not that we know of publicly, but guys are often grinding through something once the season starts. I'd think so more with Kopech tbh w/his velo dip. Gio feels like inconsistent command being the primary culprit which can be injury, but he still shows his brilliant side w/enough regularity that I think he's healthy & just figuring his stuff out a bit. He looked great in his 2 west coast starts before a couple tough IP at DET. I'd be willing to buy Gio for the 2H in a trade league, not I'm not chasing Kopech (just holding the many shares I already have lol)

Jake

1:34

Is Morel on the decline?

Paul Sporer

1:36

Yep, expected regression... those Ks were always going to catch up, especially as the BABIP smoothed out. Not only that, but some solid opponents in July, too

Kate

1:36

What do we make of a guy like Lance Lynn who's velo is down, but who missed so much time to start the year? What are the odds he gets it back sometime this year? Or in the offseason?

Paul Sporer

1:37

It screams health to me. Hard to really see it any other way right now. Definite bench for now. I'm trying to avoid the cut, but if you gotta do it in a 10 or 12, I get it!

James

1:37

Will Chapman regain his closer role after the all star break

Paul Sporer

1:37

Really depends if Holmes relinquishes it. Yesterday sucked, but he spotted the league 4 ER without getting an out and still only moved his ERA to 1.37 lol

Dan

1:38

In contention but decimated by injuries. Would you be comfortable, if you didn't need the SBs, trading Albies to a rebuilding squad for upgrades at other positions (and for other keepers) with the intention of keeping Gorman? Albies is so fun but such a streaky player.

Paul Sporer

1:39

Yes, I'm cool with that. I adore Albies, but we want championships, baby! And if trading him gives you the best shot, gotta do it!

Quick interlude - need to let the dogs out & grab a snack from the kitchen, pardon me!

Gavin

1:43

What's your confidence level in Joe Ryan ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:45

Pretty high! I’m a Joe Ryan mega fan! Plan for a mid-3s ERA and sub-1.15 while knowing you could definitely get more!

party

2

Deathclaw

1:45

Do you think Trevor Rogers can rebound in the 2nd half? At least enough to restore some dynasty appeal?

Paul Sporer

1:46

Depends almost entirely on the changeup IMO. It just hasn’t been there consistently and it’s supposed to be his A pitch

Colton

1:46

Is George Kirby worth picking up now for cheap in dynasty leagues? Or do you think he's someone you should sit on till the offseason?

Guest

1:47

Need a Whit Merrifield place holder in 14 man points league. 154 batters rostered, considering Matt Carpenter or Harold Ramirez and open to suggestions?

Paul Sporer

1:47

Absolutely! If his price has depressed, I’m jumping in! I haven’t lost any confidence for the long term!

Catch-up

1:49

Stephenson or Varsho ROS?

Paul Sporer

1:50

Sticking with Varsho, though I was huge on T Step coming into the year, so I don't really have a wrong choice here. The SBs for Varsho are enough to give him the edge, though (I know he's 5-for-9, but I doubt they really slow him down)

John

1:50

I think arraez and kwan should arm wrestle to solve this dispute.

Paul Sporer

1:51

100%

Matt Damon

1:51

MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer

1:51

Indeed!

Yoan

1:51

Yoan Moncada? Buy low or run away?

Paul Sporer

1:53

What are we buying? His only great fantasy year is the offense-inflated 2019. He's better than 47 wRC+ but there just isn't enough fantasy juice here. Name value drives interest more than anything else at this point. He's at .241/.339/.385 with 14 HR and 2 SB per 600 PA in 1012 PA.

John

1:53

Do you see the orioles being major players in free agency? I feel they will spend this offseason and have to overpay (kind of like the Werth contract with the Nats).

Paul Sporer

1:55

Too hard to say right now. Really depends how things develop over the remainder of the season, but I do think they will be open to spending and doing that Werth-type deal or at least a high impact 5+ yr deal when they find the right player

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