JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

2:14

Well yeah, all teams can afford ANY player (literally any... no team is actually poor), buuuttt we can't just take what Baltimore has done year to date and plop Ray/Freeman atop that to say they'd be in a certain spot. Obviously those two would help without a doubt, but I don't think they really messed up by not making those signings. I think they will get into the market this offseason as their window begins to open

James

2:14

What do you think Jeter Downs becomes? Best case scenario long term?

Paul Sporer

2:17

I'm not sure this all-or-nothing approach (~50% FB rate, ~30% K) will succeed especially considering he doesn't really have premium power. Best case in terms of hitting is like late-career Carlos Gomez? .238/.313/.398, 15-18 HR/SB

Need hitting

2:17

My pitching has been pretty decent but my hitting brutal. Considering an offer for Soto and can offer McClanahan or Alcantara (also have Woodruff and Castillo behind those 2). Given those 2 have been so, so, so good I'd hate to give them up. I'm always so bad at judging trades. Would either of those for Soto be fair? League is 12 team, 7x7 with the 4 extra categories being OPS, TB hitting and K/9 and QS pitching.

Paul Sporer

2:19

One of those aces should at least get the conversation rolling for Soto and I think it's worth pursuing. Woodruff looks great since returning from the IL and Castillo has been great, too, so you're still going to have 3 big arms atop your rotation.

Houzer

2:19

Feels like Hunter Greene is a tweak away from being a league winner

Paul Sporer

2:19

It's a lot more than a tweak. There's a good bit of development to be done, but there is incredible upside!

Matt

2:20

Any concerns with Acuna slugging around .420 through 270 PA?

Paul Sporer

2:20

Nah, he has more than made up for it w/his 20 SBs, too

Dale Murphy

2:20

Is Mike Harris II just a bonafide star at this point?

Paul Sporer

2:22

Not yettttttttttttt. He's been amazing, but we have a tendency to crown players too early in the internet age. Let's enjoy the ride, but don't be surprised if there is a firm regression as the league gets a deeper book on him. The SBs should sustain his value even as the 124 wRC+ regresses

Stressed

2:22

Max Muncy is still my bench bat. What am I doing wrong? Is he a cut (10 team mixed H2H points 2 batter bench spots). Alternative on the wire include Grisham, HS Kim, Nick pratto, Darick Hall, evan longoria, eddie rosario, are any of these people worth a spot?

Paul Sporer

2:22

I just can't see anything but the elbow at play here. I'd move on in 10s

M.F. Luder

2:22

What are your thoughts on Alex Kirilloff?

Paul Sporer

2:24

Big fan! He will go as far as the wrist allows. As he develops and with cooperating health, he can be a .300 AVG/30 HR hitter

Houzer

2:24

Lance Lynn .. talk me off a ledge please

Paul Sporer

2:25

I'm not sure I can. I'm pretty nervous. Best I can do is say I'm giving him a start or 2 out of the break (on my bench FOR SURE) and if things don't move forward, he gone!

Kumar's Rocker

2:25

Who is your favorite Astro SP not named Verlander for ROS and beyond?

Paul Sporer

2:28

I really don't have much split between Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier, ranking them 37-40-47 in my latest SP rankings. I don't expect them to spread too far apart in the next update, either!

Homer

2:28

How much stock do you put into scouting looks for players once they show success at the MLB level. Take Braxton Garrett for example...he's showing some nice stuff right now, but was only ranked 20th as a Marlins prospect with a FV of 40, and a tag of a "crafty back-end starter"?

Paul Sporer

2:31

These 8 starts haven't been gone much beyond that tag yet. This is still in the range of what a 40 crafty back-end starter could do at their best. The biggest change from the current scouting report is that his fastball looks more like a solid-average offering with spikes of plus performance within these 8 starts. I'm buying in, but this is still a tiny sample

2:31

Will Felix Bautista be closing in Baltimore on 8/3?

Paul Sporer

2:33

I think he should, yes. Baltimore should absolutely deal Jorge Lopez even if they holding a wildcard spot at the deadline. Their deep bullpen is a major reason they are even doing so well and there would barely be a drop off if Lopez is traded. I think this is an even easier sell than Kendall Graveman was last year for Seattle. A waiver journeyman that you've got throwing 100 mph sinkers? Must trade!

Broken Bat

2:33

Why not Contreras to Tampa Bay for Brujan?

Paul Sporer

2:34

TB would be a good fit for Willson Contreras. They definitely have the pieces to get it done

JWR

2:34

Your last ranking of starting pitchers was over a month ago. When will we get your next ranking?

Paul Sporer

2:35

Right after the deadline, so about 2 wks. I would do one at the break, but so many things could change w/the deadline and rerunning the process 2 wks apart doesn't feel useful to me

Boris

2:35

Danny Jensen over Raleigh?

Paul Sporer

2:36

Yes. I am a pretty big Raleigh fan, but Jansen has been excellent this year and I've got him higher than Raleigh

Billy

2:36

Paredes playing time stable in Tampa?

Paul Sporer

2:38

If he keeps raking, yes, but there is some risk if he gets too flyball heavy and doesn't get his OBP north of .300

Buddy

2:38

Every writer seems to be screaming to sell Logan Gilbert, but I can't get a stud bat for him. How bad will his possible regression really be?

Paul Sporer

2:40

I don't really agree with the sell push. I understand his SIERA is a run higher than the ERA, but I'm not sure I'd even be bothered by a mid-to-high 3s ERA with a 1.20ish WHIP. If you aren't getting the right return, just hang on

2:41

OK y'all, I gotta get going, I'm doing an Out of the Park Baseball stream w/Ben Clemens in about 15 minutes at https://twitch.tv/sporer -- Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!

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