JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:42

No issues with a cut in 12s or smaller. Bland-but-above-average production (in wRC+, OPS+, OPS... or whatever composite stat you like) can trick us sometimes in fantasy as with Correa earlier. Marte has a 114 wRC+ but sits just 25th among 2B!!!

Phil

1:42

You see Harper went yard twice yesterday in his rehab game? I need that mofo back sooo badly for the stretch run here.

Paul Sporer

1:42

I can't wait for him to get back! He is so fun to watch, so incredibly elite!

Ken

1:44

Should Taylor Ward be on a roster or the wire in 12-teamers?

Paul Sporer

1:45

He needn't be

Taylor Ward's early season run is still inflating his #s, but I'm not sure he should be rostered rn:
First 38 gms .333/.443/.644, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 30 R (43-111-128 full season pace)
*Missed 9 gms w/hamstring injury*
In 59 gms since inj. .211/.290/.318, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 23 R (16-49-63)

1:46

And the shoulder injury he had before the hammy in June is an even bigger issue per Ward himself: https://www.ocregister.com/2022/07/30/angels-taylor-ward-believes-hitt...

Cito

1:46

Mid-week FAAB tonight in a points league and need to make some $0 bids for a couple SP streamers. Anything wrong with this claim order? Steele @ MIL, Cobb @ MIN, Smyly @ MIL, Otto v DET, Freeland @ NYM

Paul Sporer

1:46

Dig the order!

Brit

1:47

I haven't seen much fantasy chatter around Meneses, but he's been solid for me as a needed injury fill-in. How you liking him so far/what's the long-term outlook there?

Paul Sporer

1:47

I'm totally chill riding the wave. Could be this year's Frank Schwindel (right down to the coming back to earth next year, but we can worry about that next year!)

Jeff

1:47

I’m sitting comfortably in the money in my 12 teamer. The team in 1st place is on God Tier. Thanks for all your work you do for those who are invested!

Paul Sporer

1:49

I'm happy to help even if it's in a tiny way. I'm in a God Tier situation myself with Scott Jenstad leading my Main Event. He's 20+ pts clear of a group of us and while I won't rule out catching him, I have to be realistic and it's a loooonnnngggssshhootttt!!! Let's just keep grinding and secure those money spots. We always want to take the title, but securing the money spots even when the title is out of the picture is how you become a winning player

1:50

The NFBC studs on Twitter don't win every league they're in, but their cash rates are obscene!!

Holding On

1:50

When your team all stops hitting at the same time, how do you know when to make changes and when to ride it out? It's getting late and I need to hold on to that top spot. Getting a little antsy.

Paul Sporer

1:50

Still lean on the larger samples before cutting anyone who has been around for a while. I'm still not cutting my studs in most cases, but there are likely at least a couple spots you can churn to try & jumpstart the sputtering offense

Seiya

1:50

I picked Seiya Suzuki in my dynasty for next year. Is there anything to suggest improvement is coming or that he is better than he's been this year?

Paul Sporer

1:55

Nothing in the profile that SCREAMS breakout, but I don't rule out growth just by virtue of getting more experience in the majors. I'd be plenty happy if I had him in dynasty!

Max Kepler

1:55

I'm still 60% rostered but I haven't hit for power in quite some time. Is it time to drop me or do I have a end of year power surge in me?

Paul Sporer

1:56

We discussed his power outage on the pod yesterday - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1091-po... It's rough and I don't really project a power spike from here on out. I think he's cuttable right now. I cut him in a 15-team mixed this past weekend.

Don Juan

1:57

Oscar Gonzalez a serviceable OF3 in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer

1:57

I think there has to be someone better. He's not top 40 yet

Jon

1:57

Does Harrison Bader play every day when he gets back, and what kind of stat line do you think he has over the last month of the season?

Paul Sporer

1:59

He should. They are realizing Hicks can't cut it right now and Oswaldo Cabrera is unlikely to block Bader. Bader being an elite defender definitely helps, too. We could see his pwr tick up in NYY and I'll be buying in upon his return and next year (I was huge on him this year as a breakout).

HappyFunBall

1:59

Bader is a speed-first guy with a foot injury. Hard pass.

Paul Sporer

2:00

For the rest of this year, that's not out of pocket. Just depends how healthy he is upon return. I could definitely see a yellow or even red light but I'll still buy back in '23 even if his September isn't great

Joe

2:00

When you are using a tool like the FG auction calculator, is it better to just pick one projection system or to take a blend of a few (like a mix of ZIPs, Steamer, The Bat X)

Paul Sporer

2:01

I generally lean 1 myself, but the ATC projection is an amalgam of other systems so if you prefer that, ATC could be your choice!

KCbbq

2:01

Do you think Kerry Carpenter can do enough these last 5-6 weeks to earn a starting OF gig to start next season?

Paul Sporer

2:03

I'm absolutely rooting for it, but I'm not particularly confident. If he could somehow get those AAA plate skills to stick (12% K & BB rates after 28% K/6% BB in AA), that'd be awesome, but they're so different than his career standard that I'm not holding my breath on that. Might just be a standard all-or-nothing power type with compromised AVG and not enough R/RBI bc the Tigers stink

KCbbq

2:03

In a 12 team AL only keeper league ($260 draft day budget) who would you prefer for $1....Royce Lewis or Matt Carpenter? Lewis coming off second ACL surgery and Carpenter a FA but Yanks are said to want him back.

Paul Sporer

2:03

Looove what Carp did, but I gotta go Lewis even with the ACL

Big League Chewbacca

2:06

If you're starting a league from scratch, what do you view the optimal buy-in amount as being so that people are incentivized to finish in the $ and pay attention? Is there a general rule of thumb...for example 1.0% of league members average salary? (if avg. team member salary was $50K, entry fee would be $500/person).

Paul Sporer

2:12

Yeah it definitely depends on the managers playing. If these are friends and you know or at least have an idea that they'd be down for $500, pitch that. That's a damn good buy in IMO to keep folks engaged. Even half that is pretty sizable for many folks. You can also have small penalties for finishing dead last to encourage ppl keep grinding - don't make em too crazy though or it'll just turn ppl off. You want to still make it fun.

Could also award 1st overall pick the following year to the 1st team out of the money so it'd be like 5th, 12th, 11th, etc... as the draft order in a 12-teamer. Can also do a minimum pts threshold required to avoid a nominal penalty ($50ish bucks if it's a $500 buy-in) so people can try to tank for the 1st pick if you leave it 12th-1st pick order but if they just CRATER the team, they lose 1st pick (say move back to 5th pick or something) and pay $50. So like 30 roto pts or something. Stuff like that. Don't have to institute all that bc you don't want it to be uber complicated!

Zee

2:12

Thoughts on Stone Garrett? I am debating which of him and Bubba Thompson to hang on to in a deep roto 16 teamer. Need the bags, but I can only make up so much ground that it isn't worth hurting the other cats.

Paul Sporer

2:14

Given your last sentence, I go Garrett. I'm spamming SBs and took on Thompson bc his lack of ANYTHING else isn't killing me. Garrett has 25+ HRs in his last 2 MILB seasons!

Kate

2:15

I'm hearing a lot of concern about Oneil Cruz's whiff rate so far at the MLB level. Is this a little overblown? I understand the long levers give scouts some pause in terms of how much contact he'll make, but it's a pretty small sample so far and he was actually pretty damn good making contact in AA and AAA the last two years (11-13% swinging strike rates). This looks more to me like an adjustment period than some kind of continued issue. Fair?

Paul Sporer

2:19

Fair that it might just take some time to adjust, but I don't think it's new. 12% is MLB lg avg so if he's doing that in the minors, it's reasonable to expect him higher in the majors, which he also was in the minors at times prior to '21 with a 16% mark '19. I did like how he shaved it down a bit repeating A ball from 2017 to 2018 which lends credence to the adjustment piece, but swing-and-miss was always going to be a part of his game and it is SUBSTANTIAL right now. The devastation he inflicts when he does make contact may well be enough to outrun the trouble of even an mid-30%s K rate, but if we don't see something more in the mid-to-high 20s, it'll be tough for him to be a fantasy superstar. He can be successful and post positive wRC+ totals, but it could be Gallo-esque where you're planning around horrendous AVGs so you'll have to plan to take on Cruz in drafts so you can withstand the AVG

Pauly Baby

2:20

The Red Sox could turnover a lot of players at years end. if you were the GM, which pitcher and which hitter would you seek in trade?

Paul Sporer

2:20

Sorry I'm a touch confused for I am idiot, am I being Chaim in this instance seeking players from other teams or am I another team's GM and you're asking which Red Sox I like?

Zee

2:23

Ozuna a cut at this point?

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