JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:34

Hedges just has SUCH a great reputation defensively and they actually have some offense this year so they can afford his 0 at the dish a bit more and then Maile has been a perfectly solid backup. Naylor is a MUCH better hitter than both but I don't think he's great at catching and I doubt they want to have a new C learning the pitchers in a pennant chase

Jack

1:34

Other than Benintendi having a bit more speed and Winker more power, in a vacuum who would you want in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer

1:34

I'm fully out on Winker in Seattle

Broken Bat

1:35

Duran of Twins or Munoz of Seattle next big thing? Or is it Hesley of Cards?

Paul Sporer

1:37

It's Helsley for me as he has the actual job right now. I think Duran enters with it next year and Muñoz could do, but they might prefer him as the fireman with Sewald closing. I'd take Helsley like 4th at CL after Diaz, Clase, Romano

Case for Casas

1:39

Hi Paul, will the Sox call up Casas and let him play? Do the Dodgers give Vargas enough ABs to be fantasy-relevant? Thanks again.

Paul Sporer

1:39

Casas should get the call for expansion. I don't see the PT for Vargas with Muncy back on track lately

Sean

1:40

Gunnar starting at 3B tonight. Do you know how many games at 3B in Yahoo it will take to get 3B eligibility?

Paul Sporer

1:40

5 starts or 10 games

Sean

1:40

What should we be looking for in Kirby to get ahead of a ramp/shut down? Pitch count per game?

Paul Sporer

1:42

It's gonna be tough to plan for if they don't telegraph it. A start like yesterday seemed ripe to shave an inning or 2 off if they were rolling and they trounced Manning so Kirby only needed 5. I obviously wouldn't sit him in easy matchups, but the easier matchups might be a little less fruitful if they go as planned and the M's get him a big lead. Just have reinforcements on the bench in case he gets skipped or pushed back and you can plan for it, but otherwise think we just have to roll him out and take what we get

Jared

1:46

Thoughts on Bobby Witt Jr.'s season? Do you think this could be the floor for him or do you think he will be up and down throughout his career?

Paul Sporer

1:49

Great fantasy season! I set the minimum pick on him at the time when I took him 46th in my Main Event and I don't regret it one bit! He's 26th on the Razzball Player Rater so even the eventual minimum of 30 that someone else set has worked out. The slash line isn't great especially that .292 OBP but I can definitely see improvement there. Prospect growth isn't linear so he could dip down a bit next year if the OBP doesn't improve, but long term he is a superstar in the making!

Sean

1:49

Does McCullers just need more time to get ramped up? Would you start him @ LAA with that elevated park factor? Where would you rank him ROS, top 50? Top 40?

Paul Sporer

1:50

Yeah he's only 3 starts in so he's probably not 100% comfortable and back yet, but at least he's had a nice ERA while he figures things out. I'd start him at LAA and he's a Usually Start guy for me (rarely sitting him) - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-updated-starting-pitcher-ra...

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

1:50

Whose changes do you buy more ROS (and next year if you like)? Voth with the change of scenery or J Suarez with the pitch mix change

Paul Sporer

1:54

I liked Voth in WAS so seeing him find his footing in BAL has been encouraging to me. I'm in on Suarez, too, though, so pardon me for essentially choosing both. Suarez has been using his SL at a 21% clip over his last 11 starts, netting a 17% K-BB, 3.48 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP in that time. If you have to choose between 'em, play the schedule in the short-term which would favor Suarez who gets DET next wk while Voth gets BOS

Freshbasil

1:54

Bubba Thompson or Garret Mitchell for steals the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer

1:54

Thompson

1:55

Mitchell is speedy, too, but doesn't have anywhere near the SB track record in the minors

Armadillofury

1:55

What's behind Mountcastle's underperformance compared to statcast? It's not just that abomination of a LF in Camden Yards - he's been worse away from home

Paul Sporer

2:00

Combo of the ball and wall move. The squish ball has eaten up a lot of 45/50 grade power guys. He has lost a ton of ISO home and away as you mention it isn't just the wall and the rest is owed to this trash ball the game is using this year. We haven't talked about the lack of offense much since May but that's not bc it changed, probably more bc we got tired of it. The summer has not quelled the issues and August has been particularly bad. Justin has talked on the pod throughout the year about these mid-tier power guys taking the biggest hit by the ball and you can definitely see it in so many spots. Mountcastle getting saddled w/that wall move in addition to the squish ball has been BRUTAL

Don't Swallow the Cap

2:00

I'm guessing Bellinger gets non-tendered after this year ($20M? yuck). Depending on where he goes in real-life and fantasy drafts, do you see bounceback potential or are you out on him altogether?

Paul Sporer

2:02

Not a super satisfying answer, but it's 100% price dependent. Agree that they can't pay him $20 mil so they might negotiate something cheaper to keep him around, but regardless of where he plays, I need to know the price. I think his ADP has to start with a 2, right? Or laaate 100s at the most. Around there, I could be interested, but I'm not seeking him out for a bounceback right now

Yuniesky Betancourt

2:02

Rank ROS in standard 5x5 H2H? E. Cabrera, Civale, Manning, M. Kelly

Paul Sporer

2:04

Schedule should be playing a larger role here so I recommend mapping that out for the next 2-3 starts. Generally speaking on talent, I had Cabrera 54, Civale 86, Manning 106, and Kelly 75 in my last ranking. I'd have Civale closer to the Kelly in a ranking re-run, but otherwise the same general ranking with the final decisions being driven by schedule

comish4lif

2:08

What's the outlook for Mike Toglia in Colorado for the rest of the way? Will they give him a legit look at 1B/DH? Or are the Rockies going to Rockie it up?

Paul Sporer

2:12

Having OF elig., they shouldddd be able to avoid Rockie-ing it up too much lol. There are 13 games left in Coors and I'd be down to see what he can do there, but he's no lock to perform rest of season. A 30% K rate in the minors means he could be 33-35% in the majors so it could be grim off rip. Even if he matches his 30% MiLB rate, that's still high in the majors.

They close with 3 at SF and 6 straight at LAD (not a typo) so I'm planning to cut most Rockies on 9/25 with Cron & Blackmon as the only exceptions I'm considering (but they aren't even locks with matching 88 wRC+ totals on the road this yr).

Sean

2:12

Are you starting Berrios vs PIT? Am I crazy?

Paul Sporer

2:13

I am, yes. If I can't start him v. PIT, I gotta cut him

Mike

2:13

Would you start Mahle @ CHW first game back from IL?

Paul Sporer

2:13

Generally, yes. Team context matters SOOO much for all September decisions, though, so if you're protecting ratios, sit this one out and let him get one under his belt

Mike

2:13

Has yandy diaz changed anything in his approach to warrant this hot streak in your mind? I like that he’s batting leadoff. Considering picking him up in my 10 team

Paul Sporer

2:19

Getting the ball in the air more with a 7 pt dip in GB rate paired with some good ol' run hot! While he is only pacing for 16 HR in a full season during this hot streak (.906 OPS in last 227 PA), the slash line of .311/.401/.505 is wonderful w/the R and RBI being the major draws for fantasy as both are pacing over 100 for a full season during this run (33 RBI, 34 R)

Jake Mac

2:19

Is Jake mccarthy a 10 team guy if you need steals or is outfield too deep?

Paul Sporer

2:20

He is playing like a 10-team viable OF in August! Keep an eye on the PT now that Carroll is up as that could be the tough part for a 10-teamer and I don't know who else is available, but I'm not averse to picking him up right now

2:20

Pratto is looking really good of late. I feel like he got a little forgotten with all the Vinnie P hype. Is this a short-term blip or can Nick keep this up ROS in September?

Paul Sporer

2:21

He can absolutely keep it up. The cool name and out of nowhere hype of Vinnie P definitely pushed him over Pratto in the fantasy consciousness, but Pratto is the markedly better prospect. Both can be absolute studs and I'm in on both for the rest of the season and 2023!

McKittrick

2:21

What's up with Giolito? Worth holding in a 12 teamer where I have good SP depth? I keep rolling him out there for favorable matchups and he keeps crapping the bed.

Paul Sporer

2:23

The tough part is the lack of a smoking gun. It seems to be something different every game. Fastball command one night, off speed stuff another, and then hanging breakers in yet another. Has to be maddening for Gio, too. I've been reluctant to cut him but I understand not starting him every time out. Even if you pass v. MIN this weekend, we gotta go with him at OAK next week. I'd be OK treating that start as a do-or-die, though. If he gets got at OAK, I'd be down to cut and just check back in for '23

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