JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Guest

1:41

do you see the larger bases have a measurable negative effect on more well rounded 1st rounders? The Julio’s, kyles, and Ronald’s?

Paul Sporer

1:43

No, I don't think. However, there will likely be a lot of chatter about J-Rod's 4-for-6 2nd half in SBs after Seattle said they were going to slow him down. Was it just a 2H thing to keep him healthier (or try to, at least) or is he going to be more a 17-20 SB guy in future seasons? That'd still be great, but not quite the 30+ he felt like a lock for after 21 1H SBs

John

1:43

Baez had a nice September, we have seen big FA signings struggle out of the gate before, what do you think of a potential bounce-back with a price that will leave plenty of room for profit?

Paul Sporer

1:44

We discussed Baez on the latest pod yesterday - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1102-se... and while he will definitely be cheaper due to the ugly season, I'm still not sure I'm buying back in, especially given the depth of SS

Rob

1:44

Re: DeGrom, I'm basically in the camp that I'll never own the guy because of the sky-high cost coupled with what basically seems to be a guaranteed injury (or four) every year. Is that a leak in my game?

Paul Sporer

1:45

Not necessarily, no. Build your roster to your strengths and if you're not interested in managing around expected IL stints w/deGrom, it makes sense to pass on him. Especially since the injuries aren't really going to offer much of a discount bc of how good he is when healthy

Kyle

1:45

Baddoo is only 28 HR and 24 SB away from hitting your preseason bold prediction of 30/30 -- do you think he gets there?

Paul Sporer

1:45

Yes!

Baha Men

1:45

Wait, it was YOU?

Paul Sporer

1:46

Yes! I tried to tell y'all!

Jung Bong Jovi

1:46

Starting Webb and Darvish last week at Coors didn't sink me. Couldn't have asked for better results, really. And now I'm battling for a title. Thanks for all of your help Paul!

Paul Sporer

1:47

Let's go!! Happy to have helped in any way at all and hope you bring it home!!

Broken bat

1:47

Does McCarthy and Carroll both start next year in snakes Of?

Paul Sporer

1:47

I thiiiink so. Seems McCarthy has leapfrogged Thomas

Tim

1:47

Are you a believer in Gio, Pablo and/or Berrios heading into next season?

Paul Sporer

1:51

Crazy thing about Berrios is that half his starts were still good, but the bad half were insanely bad, particularly the *9* where he allowed 5+ ER. I don't think he's THAT far from fixing his issues. Pablo Lopez has had a few really ugly outings in the 2H, but I don't see him in the same class as Giolito & Berrios in terms of disappointment. Giolito fixed himself once (his transformation was all his own offseason work, not the Sox mgmt - though that was before Ethan Katz joined, too) so I think he can do it again. It will 100% come down to price w/him

Guest

1:51

Dropped Adolis early on because I didn't believe he could keep it up with his terrible discipline. Comforted I'm not alone

Paul Sporer

1:53

He strikes me as a good process, bad result situation. I'm not letting his success change my outlook on guys with horrible plate skills. Even acknowledging that his elite defense was going to secure a good bit of PT, I didn't see that as a HUGE positive bc I was worried he'd be really bad so I didn't want MORE PA of bad performance

I Used to be Mel Clark

1:53

What round do you think Arozarena goes next year?

Paul Sporer

1:55

Not too much higher than last year (pick 50-65 range?)

Jeremy

1:55

Do you think next year we see some smaller market teams (COL, CIN, BAL, CHC, PIT) try to go after the big FA players? I know those teams don't have a lot of money but who knows...

Paul Sporer

1:57

I think Baltimore should just continue following their Seattle ascent and sign a big arm a la the Robbie Ray move. I think Carlos Rodón would be a great fit for them w/the young arms that emerged this year plus Grayson Rodriguez & DL Hall carving out larger roles. COL might be gun shy after Bryant's flop. Cincy & Pitt both have a ton of young talent, but both are prob a year away from really eyeing premium FA pieces

Andrew

1:57

Josh Jung has 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 28/2 strikeout to walk rate in 66 at bats to start out his major league career. How would you value him going into next season?

Paul Sporer

2:01

I'm a big Jung fan so I was bummed that he suffered such a major injury. I suspect this flurry is building some real hype and he'll go just outside the top 10 3B... around pick 125-150 range?

Big Joey

2:01

Who would you rather keep for next season? Cole, Wheeler or Scherzer?

Paul Sporer

2:01

Still Gerrit Cole for me

Eno

2:01

Elly de la cruz draft price next year?

Paul Sporer

2:02

Will he be drafted? He had an amazing season at A+/AA, but he's still 21 and has plenty of development to be done. Outside the top 300 in Draft & Holds

Zac

2:03

Is Varsho done catching? Still has eligibility for next year, but don’t want to be left hanging in a dynasty if he doesn’t catch the requisite 10 games next year.

Paul Sporer

2:04

Hard to say. A lot of us thought this year would be the last but then injury struck and he was needed back there. He was remarkable in the OF this year so I imagine their plan is to just keep him out there all year so if your plans are on him 100% being C, I wouldn't plan beyond 2023

Big Joey

2:05

What's your guess as to how many more 45+ HR seasons Judge has left in him?

Paul Sporer

2:05

Papa Smurf

2:05

Bradish, Wesneski, Jameson, or Bello for 2023

Paul Sporer

2:10

I'm a Jameson guy from his prospect days (I say that as if he wasn't just called up 9 minutes ago lol), but I've been on the bandwagon since he was drafted plus I love the schedule change for him next year since it won't be as much LAD, SD or trips to Coors. I'm also not quitting Bradish despite my earlier comment about his start last night ending my season (probably, I could still come back).

Normally us fantasy folks irrationally hate players who are seen as the reason for our downfall, but I really like his arm and think he can be a legit stud. I think he's the best of the emerging BAL arms this year. Bello & Wesneski are a cut below those 2, but I have positives about them, too. All in all, this is a good group of cheap arms w/upside!

Linda

2:11

I am hunting for W's that won't blow up my ratios. Don't need the K's so much. Am I crazy to start Manning today?

Paul Sporer

2:12

Not crazy, no. There is definitely risk, of course, but it's hard to find a better matchup in streaming than facing KC in a good park. Obviously the Tigers aren't ideal support for a W, but I like the shot. I think a lot of ppl quit him after the SEA blowup but he has rebounded beautifully from it

Wendel Clark

2:12

Do you have a favourite hockey player? (check out the 3:10min mark - savage! )

Paul Sporer

2:14

3 faves are all Wings: Brendan Shanahan, Slava Kozlov, Nick Lidstrom | Pavel Bure was my favorite non-Wing growing up!

Homer

2:14

Young pitchers...Lodolo, Singer, Freddy Peralta, Ranger Suarez...any of these guys taking a step forward next year?

Paul Sporer

2:23

Lodolo can be an ace-level pitcher if he finds some command, but that won't be easy so I see more of a small step next year (mid-3.00s ERA, low-1.20s WHIP, tons of Ks). Singer broke out this year so I'll be looking for more a plateau season next yr though we could see some added Ks offset expected ratios regression. Peralta was really only health, skills were still great. Suarez kinda broke out once discovering that cutter: 4.23 ERA/1.48 WHIP before; 2.55 ERA/1.12 WHIP since. So in the end, I think Lodolo has the best chance at a substantial step forward next year!

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