JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat | 11/16/2022

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Kate

2:01

Speculating on closer roles this time of year is tough, but curious re: your thoughts on a couple of situations. Do you see any of Jorge Lopez, LeClerc or Floro starting 2023 as "the man" in their respective pens?

Paul Sporer

2:11

Maybe, Probably, Doubtful is how I'd play those 3. A lot of Lopez's fall off w/MIN came in an ugly 5-outing stretch when he walked 8 w/a .421 BABIP leading to 7 of the 11 ER he allowed w/them. If they aren't too worried about that and want to keep Duran in a fireman (or maybe even a starting role), I can definitely see Lopez getting the role.

I've always been a big Jonathan Hernandez guy, but I think Leclerc gets first crack at it. Not juuust bc he's being paid ($6m this yr) but also bc he was really good upon return this yr and ended the season in role. He's had ups & downs in TEX, but I think a healthy Leclerc is their guy.

Floro also ended excelling the role, but it took until September to get him back into the role despite his good work there in '21. I'd only draft him as a CL3 at most right now as I think MIA's '23 closer isn't on their roster yet

Kingpin

2:12

What are your thoughts on two young Cubs' pitchers - Steele & Wesneski? Seems like both could be under-the-radar, sneaky-good picks in '23.

Paul Sporer

2:18

Jeff, is that you??? Jeff keeps promoting them and I have half a mind to fire him over it! Stop hyping guys I like, too many ppl listen you!!!

Jokes aside, I quite like both and think the Cubs could be somewhat competitive next year with a chance at really competing if things break their way which would enhance the W probability for both. I think Steele can improve both his K & BB rates, building upon this year's quality work. A lot of times, Yankees prospects are overrated just by virtue of being on the Yankees, but Wesneski is a bit under the radar and was with NYY, too. Deep arsenal, leads w/the slider, plenty swing and miss & keeps the walks in check. I definitely see his 285 ADP rising, but even with a big surge (75-80 picks), it's still a price I'm willing to pay

Rickey H

2:19

Drey Jameson going to give more value than the $8 price I have him for in NL-only league? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

2:19

I'm a Jameson guy so I can see him going double-digits. $8 isn't an amazing price, but it's enough for me to keep in NL Only if you also believe in him

Not Paul Sporer

2:20

Re: velocity from stamina depletion. MILB pitchers did not see any noticeable decrease in velo after a pitch clock was put in. Just FYI!

Paul Sporer

2:21

Oh wow, that is definitely shocking to me given how we had seen taking longer was helping. Great callout. Did it impact K% at all?

Milledge Report

2:21

Sporer, you think Montas falling too far in ADP (around 203 in early DC league drafts)?

Paul Sporer

2:25

It's probably a fair price, tbh, given the shoulder concerns. I'm a long-time Montas wonk so I'll probably take the plunge in a lg or 2, but I'm not running out to scoop him at this price as health has been a career-long issue for him

Randy

2:25

Jeremy Pena is projected by steamer to stick to his current production (20/10). Do you think that this is low or high going into his sophomore season off the WS MVP. I'm in a keeper league and trying to gauge what's in the tank for his growth.

Paul Sporer

2:30

I think it makes sense given the plate skills we've seen from him (24% K, 4% BB, 16% SwStr). There could definitely be some development that pushes him over the projection, but it bakes in the right amount of caution with Peña

Kate

2:30

Rizzo back to Yanks seems like an ideal landing spot for him, right?

Paul Sporer

2:30

Absolutely!

Not Paul Sporer

2:32

Re: velocity: You should check out the BaseballAmerica article: "It was 91.7 mph in 2019. After the coronavirus pandemic canceled the 2020 season, in 2021, the last year without the current pitch clock rules, the four-seam fastball average velocity jumped to 92.3 mph. This year, with the pitch clock in effect throughout the full-season minors, the average is 92.3."

Paul Sporer

2:33

Great info, Kind of a bummer bc I really want to see K rates drop, they're WAAAAYYYY too high. Hopefully the mix of the rules will have some softening on Ks while increasing non-HR hits!

Enshrine the Crime Dog

2:33

How about the pitch clock, pickoff limits, and larger bases changing the SB game? Might we see a 50 or dare I say 60+ season?

Kate

2:33

How do you think the new rules will actually end up affecting the SB landscape? I'm feeling like the safe play is to just not treat SBs any differently until we see how this shakes out this year.

Paul Sporer

2:34

We miiiight, but I'm not betting on it nor planning for it in my drafts. I will likely take my normal approach of spreading out my SBs across the roster as opposed to zeroing in on a premium stealer or two. There was a lot of talk about this at the FPAZ conference a couple wks ago and the consensus seemed to be that it might help the middle and backend tiers more than drive the studs up to huge 50+ levels

Kool-Aid Main Bursting into an ER

2:34

Matt Mervis: should we believe the Vinnie Pasquantino level of hype?

Paul Sporer

2:36

To a degree, yes, but I have some trepidation about the price. He's at 313 right now, but I think that'll head upward and could land in the early-200s which is a bit too rich for me if he's consistently going ahead of Casas, Torkelson, Walsh, Voit, Mancini

Kate

2:36

I see some smart folks at other outlets expressing some concern about Taylor Ward going forward. What say you? Some of his struggles this year seem pretty easily tied to injury. Given health, he seems like a pretty safe bet for a guy with such a short track record.

Paul Sporer

2:41

He said the shoulder injury late-May impacted him during his summer swoon. But he closed strong once healthy and has a blood red StatCast profile despite giving away 3 mos. I'm a fan so as long as we don't get any negativity about his health in the offseason, I'm buying back in

(In fact, I already have in one of my drafts)

Not Paul Sporer

2:41

Do you think Fangraphs will ever get to the point where you can have an "injury" tab on player pages that show the prior injuries and time missed from them? I think it would be valuable to assess time missed from soft tissue (back, hamstring) vs broken bones (hand, jaw).

Paul Sporer

2:42

That would be awesome, I can definitely suggest it to the powers that be!

Jack

2:43

Would you rather have the Tigers win the World Series, or have an Olympic sized swimming pool in your backyard packed to the brim with otters?

Paul Sporer

2:43

Maaaaannnnnnnnnn

2:44

Let's be real, otters are cute and cuddly but they're LOUDDD af, too, so a pool of them would probably be annoying lol. Gimme the World Series!

2:46

OK y'all, I got a mtg coming up soon! Next week's chat is TBD being the day before Thanksgiving but if not, then back the 30th for sure! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer) and Twitch (sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today where I'll be a Nomar Garciaparra Career Rerun in OOTP baseball and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

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