JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:19

Good afternoon y'all!

Mustin Jason

1:19

Why is Justin Mason so much better at fantasy, funnier, and better looking than you? Do you think your height holds you back from acheiving?

Paul Sporer

1:19

I've been saying it for years. I'm TOO tall!!!

SandyisTheGreatest

1:19

Will the Dodgers trade Lux and Stone for a 3B?

Paul Sporer

1:20

I could see them making a big trade if they don't find what they want on the FA wire, but it seems they like Lux so I'm not sure he's part of it

ScottTINSTAAPP

1:20

Hope to see you in Vegas in the Spring for the Main Event! Ended up winning our ME league and finishing 17th overall and are using the winnings to go do our first live draft in Vegas in March

Paul Sporer

1:20

YESSSS let's gooo!!! I will be there, definitely say hi!

(I'm the too tall one)

SandyisTheGreatest

1:21

Should the Dodgers trade Will Smith knowing Diego Cartajena is almost ready?

Paul Sporer

1:21

I wouldn't, no. I'd be more inclined to trade Cartaya tbh

Peanut Arbuckle

1:26

Hi Paul, are you taking Colt Keith over Nick Gordon in dynasty?

Paul Sporer

1:29

I'm a Gordon fan. I'm not sure he will get a starter's role next year but he could play most days in a super utility role. Keith is probably the better hitter but doesn't add anything defensively which could make it hard for him to cover out a role, even on a bad Tigers team

Kyle

1:30

Mustin Jason - I'm pretty sure Paul didn't pull a 2008 Detriot Lions (0-16) in fantasy leagues this past year like someone else I know....

Paul Sporer

1:30

Kyle, hit me with that Venmo for the $ I owe you!

1:30

Do you like Joe Ryan or Reid Detmers more for next year? (Categories IP, ERA, WHIP, K)

Paul Sporer

1:33

I have them close, but I lean toward Detmers with his richer upside. Ryan has a more stable floor, but his HR issue likely keeps him from turning in an ace season whereas Detmers could build on his 2H success and take off

diadem

1:35

NL only 5x5 $260 14/9. 30% inflation. I have Snell at $22. Keeper?

Paul Sporer

1:38

I think he's a keeper in that setup! If he can build on that stretch run surge, he could be a stud. But even just adding more innings of the 3.38 ERA/1.20 WHIP would be good

Peanut Arbuckle

1:38

Would you trade Colt Keith for Nick Gordon in dynasty?

Paul Sporer

1:38

Yes I can get behind a 1:1 deal there

Kate

1:38

Mentioned this to Justin the other week, stumbled onto Nick's "Nick Pollack and Friends" pod series and really enjoyed the eps with you and Justin. Fun to learn more about you guys. The Jamba Juice story had me laughing haha!

Paul Sporer

1:39

Excellent podcast to learn about many folks in the fantasy industry!! I was episode 1, Justin was episode 5 - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nick-pollack-friends-podcast/id1...

viceroy

1:39

Hey Paul, have you looked much into Kodai Senga? Where do you think you would slot him in your ranks if signed at a neutral park/team context

Paul Sporer

1:42

I learned a good bit from this Jolly Olive video in addition to what I've read over the last couple yrs: --- I've got him up to SP80 right now and think I'd move him another 10-12 spots if he signs somewhere neutral or better. Just kinda parked him on my list for now and waiting to see where he goes & how they plan to utilize him

Kate

1:42

Asked Justin this the other day, but curious your perspective. Do you think Verlander was a special case for Houston in terms of signing a starter (i.e. do you think they'll just roll with what they have in house now)? Or do you think they'll try to sign someone else? Wondering if this will actually end up moving Hunter Brown closer to a rotation spot.

Paul Sporer

1:44

Even with JV gone, Brown is the 6 right now so I'm not sure they rush out to replace him. I looove Hunter Brown so I'm hoping he finds a rotation spot, but unless they move 1 of their current 5, Framber-Javier-Garcia-Urq-McCullers, I think Brown is first man up. I do think he can deliver enough value in a multi-inning relief role that I'm still drafting him in 15-team mixers even without an SP slot

Kate

1:44

Are the Pirates really going to stack enough boring arms in front of Luis Ortiz that he's going to start in the minors? Please just let these kids play.

Paul Sporer

1:46

Wrote him up just last night for the Fantasy Black Book (out later this month!) and came to that conclusion, yes. I think he spends at least a month or so in AAA unless he just comes to spring with much tighter command and control. This was the outlook:

Luis Ortiz, PIT
·Looks like the 6th man which makes sense after just 10 AAA & 16 MLB IP
·Needs some fine tuning as he is pretty wild
·98.5 mph fastball was 4th highest (min. 16 IP)
·2-pitch guy with show-me changeup (5%)
·Still very raw at age-24; don’t overpay

Taijuan Taillon

1:46

Of mid-tier SP signings, who's got the best change of scenery? The worst? Thinking of Taijuan, Taillon, Heaney, Anderson, Quintana

Paul Sporer

1:55

I'm a personal fan of Taijuan, but I'm worried about the move to PHI. If he keeps the GB rate gains, he can continue to mitigate HRs, but with his 1.4 HR from 2020-21 looming, I do worry that PHI as his home park can bring a return of the longball.

I have a hard time saying anyone had a best chance. It always sucks to leave the Dodgers so I think it's worse off for Anderson & Heaney, though less for Heaney as I trust TEX over LAA and like Globe Life for pitchers. Actually, as I'm typing, I'm realizing Taillon from NYY to CHC is pretty good. His HRs spiked in 2021-22 at 1.4 so moving to CHC is a boon as he moves from the 8th best HR park for hitters to the 17th (though those days the wind is blowing out can be hell). Ranking in order them after their moves:

Heaney
Taillon
Taijuan, Quintana, Anderson

Revive the Fireside Chats

1:55

Should I take Ober or Trevor Rogers as my SP9 in a startup dynasty draft?

Paul Sporer

1:56

Firesides not dead and I still lean Rogers

Felines

1:56

Do you see a Winker bounce back with offseason surgery & a better park?

Paul Sporer

2:01

It all comes down to health with him. He was off my list with the CIN-to-SEA park move, but I'm back in with the price plummet and move back to a more neutral park overall. The HR factor goes from 94 (19th) to 119 (5th), too! But again, health has long been an issue for him so I do worry there, especially with 2 offseason surgeries. Thankfully a post-300 pick covers the injury risk so there is still upside to be mined from taking Winker

Mustin Jason

2:01

Kyle with the dagger...

Paul Sporer

2:01

Didn't think Kyle was gonna come that dirty

SandyisTheGreatest

2:02

Mookie Betts at 2B and Lux at SS with Edwin Rios at 3B and Vargas spelling Freeman at 1B. Who says no!?

Paul Sporer

2:02

Almost certainly the Dodgers lol

Kate

2:02

On the Bell signing, looks like a pretty good landing spot for him, no? The only better one I could come up with was Houston, but that obviously closed when they grabbed Abreu. Side note: how does this affect a guy like Will Brennan? Does he now start the year with a significantly reduced role? Or does everyone in the OF/1B/DH grouping just lose a bit of PT so they can spread it across one extra guy?

Paul Sporer

2:11

Yes, it's a great move for CLE and Bell! 2/3rds of his PA comes as a lefty, which is great for his new ballpark (6th in lefty hitter park factor). SD is 28th in lefty park factor, though in fairness his road work was the trouble w/them (.449 OPS in 105 road PA). This definitely dents Will Brennan's immediate outlook. They might entrust him with CF, but I think they've aimed to build a strong enough lineup to absorb Myles Straw so they can have his defense. We shall see on that. You can still gamble on Brennan in Draft Champions leagues because he is dirt cheap (574th ADP). Josh Naylor should be a straight up platoon after this, but we're not too upset about losing 127 PA of .512 OPS (.565 career OPS).

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