JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Phil

2:12

How quickly/do you think Miguel Vargas gets OF eligibility next year?

Paul Sporer

2:15

I'm not sure he does. It's always so hard to predict these kinds of things with the Dodgers because they are in on everyone via trade or free agency so they can always make a huge move and blow up any plans we have. They might have moved on from Justin Turner to give Vargas the full-time 3B role... or they do something like sign Bogy and make Lux the everyday 3B. Just tough to call. That said, I like Vargas enough that I am taking him even with an uncertain outlook. He is going after pick-300 which still feels plenty fair given his upside at the dish

Kate

2:16

Is Alzolay def in the pen or is there a chance he gets one more shot to start? If pen, do you think he has a shot to start the year in some kind of closer committee?

Paul Sporer

2:18

I'm betting against a return to starting at this point as he might 8th in line: Taillon, Stro, Hendricks, Steele, Sampson, Thompson, Wesneski... and then maybe Alzolay. Or perhaps Assad. Love Alzolay's talent, but definitely think he has a better chance to be a fantasy relevant closer than starter

Insert Witty Name Here

2:18

My league for the first time did Saves + Holds, and I’m not sure how I feel about it. It deepened the player pool by a lot. But it also took away that soap opera that is always “who is the manager letting close games”. Do you have a preference?

Paul Sporer

2:24

Yeah that's definitely my pushback on SV+HD, it takes away that piece of work/volatility that adds spice to our game. And look, sometimes it's just dumb luck to land on a closer who drop 15 second half saves bc you got the guy 4th on your list and he fell into a job, but that's not reason enough take that strategic piece out of the game. Hard work on bullpen speculation can and often is rewarded, it's not always just blind luck. I still dream of a day when Shutdowns are the RP stat we use. It's based on WPA which makes it a tough fantasy sell bc you can't watch a game and know for sure that you got a Shutdown as you can with so many other fantasy stats, but I do think it'd be the best single stat to measure RP talent.

More on Shutdowns:
Definition
Leaderboard

Kate

2:24

Forget if I asked you this last week, but do you think Reese Olson gets a meaningful amount of starts for your Tigers this year? If so, how do you like his chances to stick as an effective starter? Did the command really tick up as much as the improved walk rate would make it seem?

Paul Sporer

2:30

Pardon me... had a delivery come that I had to take care of

2:34

Very pleased with Reese Olson's big season: sliced his BB rate nearly in half to 7.5% while strikeouts surged 13 points to 33% at Double-A. He was added to the 40 to avoid the Rule 5 draft and could make the Tigers as a RP out of camp or go to AAA and continue starting. He could be fantasy-relevant either way if he builds upon his major gains from '22

Eugenio Suarez

2:34

Eugenio Suarez finished 8th in the third base position rankings in my league last year but I cannot drum up any interest in him. Was his bad year+ so bad that people still think he's washed?

Paul Sporer

2:36

It's not that people think he's washed, it's just the wide range of outcomes for that all-or-nothing profile. He feels just as likely to drop another 84 wRC+ (like his '21) as he is to repeat last year's 131. It just makes him a tough sell in the trade market

Lange

2:39

Alex Lange for Closer of Detroit 2023?

Paul Sporer

2:40

Love the breakout season for Lange, but unless Gregory Soto is moved, I don't see a new closer

Estevez

2:40

I'm going to be the secret closer for the Angels after everyone buys Herget and Quijada?

Paul Sporer

2:43

I could absolutely see Carlos Estévez taking the role. Hard thrower, three pitches, 15% career K-BB, and has definitely looked quite solid outside of Coors for his career: 3.51 ERA/1.26 WHIP compared to 5.57/1.54 at home. If they don't get anyone else, I really like gambling on Estevez

Booger

2:44

Thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez odds to be in rotation by, say May 1? Assuming yes, what rank/tier do you slot him?

Paul Sporer

2:48

Latest word in Jeff's Mining the News gives Grayson a real shot to break camp with the team: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-12-6-22/ I moved him from 106 to 80 just on that news alone yesterday. If you are a Grayson fan, I recommend some winter shares because he will only go up from here if becomes more and more clear that he will have a spot to open the year

Texis

2:48

What is going to happen to my shares of J. Naylor now that J. Bell has joined the party?

Paul Sporer

2:49

There's a world where they are better. I like volume as much as the next guy, but Naylor just can't hit lefties so it could be a more-is-less type of thing with him being a full-on platoon player. I still think he's a monster vR and that's enough to keep him mixed league relevant, especially in 12s and deeper

Shotgun

2:49

O/U Steamer projection for Brandon Drury of 21 HR and .731 OPS in 560 PA? That's a .317 wOBA. I'm thinking he's a solid bet for .330+.

Paul Sporer

2:51

It really depends where he lands for me. He thrived in Cincy and he was essentially the guy you've mapped out above in SD so I can certainly see that in a neutral or slightly worse venue. Just land somewhere that gets him an everyday role and I'm inclined to buyback around pick-190.

RayG

2:52

For Sandy

Rios was non-tendered

Paul Sporer

2:53

Oh yaaa so unless LAD brings him back, he won't be doin' a damn thing for them!

Taijuan Taillon

2:53

Fantrax has an option for Saves + 0.5 per Hold. Feels right

Paul Sporer

2:53

I prefer that to 1 for each, good call

Dynasty D

2:53

Still believe in Dylan Carlson, Jesse Winker or Austin Meadows? All on waivers in my 16-team dynasty!

Paul Sporer

2:55

Yeah, I'm down to gamble on any of the three, particularly in that order. I'm not quitting Carlson yet while Winker and Meadows are relatively easy buybacks given their price (waiver wire in your case!). I still prefer Winker to Meadows, though

Judge

2:55

Judge back to the Yankees is such a loss for me as a Yankees hater. He's so g-d likeable, but I'm forced to hate him! Rules are rules.

Paul Sporer

2:57

lolololol... I've dealt with that feeling a lot lately as they've had so many likeable players. Thankfully they haven't been terribly successful so they aren't the Evil Empire and thus my hate has softened on them in light of rooting for some of their more likeable guys including Judge, of course. Now they've got my boy Harrison Bader, too!!

Worried Astros fan

2:58

Cristian Javier pitched like an ace last year... can he actually be an ace? Like over a full season of starting ace?

Paul Sporer

3:02

This was probably the best he will ever pitch as a 2-pitch stud who struck out a third of the batters he faced. I certainly think he can deliver an excellent full season of work (mid-3.00s ERA, low-1.20s WHIP, and gobs of Ks) but I'd be hard pressed to predict a full season of that 2.54 ERA/0.95 WHIP we just saw. He's a Top 30 SP in my rankings!

Jam

3:02

How are we feeling the new rules about the shift could be impacted by Casual Weather this season?

Paul Sporer

3:02

This isn't being discussed NEARLYYY enough. Justin might be best to answer that, though, being the foremost expert on Casual Weather

3:03

OK y'all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

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