JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:08

Good afternoon everyone, thanks for coming out!

BlueJayMatt

1:08

Is Justin OK today?

Paul Sporer

1:09

Probably better than a lot of Giants fans since he doesn't love Correa that much anyway, but it has to be at least somewhat alarming for Giants fans bc there is no one left to spend big bucks on at this point and it's not like they can trade for a centerpiece given their system

Max

1:15

What’s your KDS strategy in 15 team drafts this year? Where do you want to be drafting?

Paul Sporer

1:16

I really like the ends (1st/2nd, 14th/15th), I'm most comfortable there, but I'm not averse to a late-middle (9th or later) as I think the 1st rd is deep and I like what is there in the 2nd/3rd in those spots

Guest

1:16

Hey Paul, thanks for the Chat. In an 12tm H2H 8x8 OBP league where I can keep 6, my final keeper decision comes down to Wander Franco or Adley Rutschman. Who would you keep? Thanks

Paul Sporer

1:17

Tight battle, is there no way to keep both?? If it's gotta be 1, I'm going Adley

Chip

1:17

Is Aaron Ashby a starter this year? And if he is, is he fantasy relevant?

Paul Sporer

1:19

Will have a spot to start the season and short of a collapse, there's a real shot for 30 starts this year. Highly volatile with his poor command, but the upside is very rich with the swing-and-miss capability.

Salty

1:19

Hey Paul - catching up on the pods and you mentioned the Colton/Wolf plan to fade players in their first year of a mega-contract, which is understandable considering the pressure that can bring. Do you think the same applies with the Mets signings, or since they signed so many at once, guys like Verlander/Correa/Nimmo will have much less implied pressure to feel like they need to "carry the team"?

Paul Sporer

1:22

I wouldn't include Nimmo as much since he's staying where he was and while he is now paid, I don't think the potential pressures are the same. As for the multiple guys factor, i do wonder if they take that into consideration. Though, even if it's not a "carry the team" thing, there is still a big "earn my keep" factor after they sign which can lead to pressing in year 1. BTW, it's obviously not universal as plenty of guys have great years in Y1 of a big deal, but I just tend to use it as a negative tiebreaker opting for the guy not on Y1 of a huge deal. That said, JV is my favorite pitcher ever so I'll likely break the rule for him lol

Jack

1:22

I’m skeptical the Rays are going to put kid gloves on Glasnow. They signed him to a two year deal and know the figures now. I feel extremely confident he will be traded after the first year of that deal (or at the deadline if the rays somehow suck) so I don’t think they care if he breaks after year one. I’m not projecting 200 innings or anything, but I think 160 isn’t out of the question. Rays always trade their aces, James shields, Price, Archer. Their top starters never make it to free agency (don’t invest in a mclanahan jersey!) Thoughts?

Paul Sporer

1:22

I also don't think they are going to baby him. If he's healthy, he's pitching. I'd be surprised if he's heavily IP-managed when healthy. Staying healthy has been the challenge, of course, but I agree with you on taking the kid gloves off this year & pushing him a bit

Bobbo

1:23

The Giants sent out their spring training ticket sales email blast this morning at 10am. That would have been pretty great timing had they not missed their self-imposed deadline to sign Correa's contract yesterday and cancelled his press conference.

Paul Sporer

1:24

Wow! Could you imagine buying season tix and stuff or getting a custom Giants jersey with his name on it before all this? I doubt official MLB sites allowed you to get Correa Giants until it was final-final, but I imagine some folks will have custom made Correa Giants jerseys... such a WILD situation

Jack

1:24

The giants should just go bananas on short term deals with the freed up payroll. Conforto, Gary Sanchez, Segura, Kimberly and why not put a cherry on top and sign Jose Iglesias?

Paul Sporer

1:24

It's all that is out there, so it might not be a bad idea to just stock a bunch lottery-ish tickets (more like the $1 scratchers than the $20 ones given the caliber of talent) and hope to get a bunch $5 returns (keeping w/the lottery ticket analogy)

Guest

1:24

over/under 400 ABs for Miguel Vargas?

Paul Sporer

1:27

It is so hard to know bc the Dodgers are always a candidate to make a big move (this would have to be via trade at this point) so I lean over right now, but at the same time wouldn't be surprised if they ripped Boston off again and got Devers somehow lol. Although maybe this time Boston would want an actual good return and they'd get Vargas which would then push it back over 400. Bottom line is I'm drafting him in winter lgs at this current ADP (~300 ADP)

Guest

1:27

Thanks Paul on the Adley vs. Wander question. My other 5 keepers were Top 20 players from last year. I guess the other two could be Scherzer and Verlander but they could be the anchors of a great pitching staff. Would you keep Wander over either of those pitchers?

Paul Sporer

1:28

No I'm down to keep the 5 Top 20 gems. I figured you had some insanity if it came down to those 2 for the last spot

Vic

1:29

Will S Frelick be last year's S Kwan?

Paul Sporer

1:29

Not a bad comparison, though I'm not sure Frelick has a guaranteed spot right now. But upon arrival, high contact & speed are definitely Frelick's best skills

Jim

1:29

Who would you keep (just 1) between degrom, f. freeman and betts.

Paul Sporer

1:29

I lean Betts in a very tight choice

Jack

1:29

based on some of these free agent deals, it makes the Javy Baez deal seem more palatable no?

Paul Sporer

1:31

Honestly, yes. It's more on par with the Dansby deal and while I was very much interested in Correa for the Tigers and wouldn't have been mad w/the SF or NYM deals for DET, this offseason has certainly taken some sting off the Baez deal

Kate

1:31

How does the Correa addition affect Baty's role for this year? Is he a trade chip now? Or will he have to wait for an injury of underperformance amongst Correa, McNeil and the OF corner guys?

Paul Sporer

1:32

Most chatter I've seen this morning is Baty learning OF, otherwise yes, he is a trade chip. I liked Justin's idea of something around Baty/Alvarez for Devers prior to this Correa move. I know they're talking to the White Sox about Hendriks, but I feel like Baty is too much for him. That said if the White Sox can get that, then they should!

Guest

1:32

12-team keeper league - pick 2 of these 4 to keep for the minimum: Wright, Singer, Kirby, Lodolo

Paul Sporer

1:34

Ooh interesting group! Kirby is the lock for me with Wright/Lodolo battling for the 2nd spot. I'd probably just use the team context as a tiebreaker, espec. since ATL/CIN are so far apart. So Kirby/Wright for me.

Mike

1:34

What are your expectations for Kyle Wright this year? Continued success? Step backwards?

Paul Sporer

1:36

Almost certainly pulling back on his dollar earnings bc 21 wins will be very hard to pull off again. I've got him around a mid-3.00s ERA and low-1.20s WHIP, too, both up from last year. So a definite dip, but i don't think he's too expensive given his breakout year (ADP around 110)

Vic

1:37

Anyone other than Burnes and Cole make your Top 2?

Paul Sporer

1:38

I had McClanahan 2 ahead of Cole, but I've vacillated quite a bit on Cole-McClanahan-deGrom-Sandy in that 2 spot. Really torn who to place behind Burnesy

Kate

1:38

How do you feel about Muncy going into 2023? Felt like he got healthy and back on track in the second half this year. Are you expecting a return to normalcy for him this year?

Paul Sporer

1:40

Yes, I'm back in! I was 100% out last year bc of the elbow and definitely don't regret that. He closed as the Muncy we know & love, though. Last 2 mos. -- .247/.358/.500 with 12 HR in 226 PA (37 HR/113 RBI full season pace). Very fairly priced around ADP 160, too!

Jack

1:40

Everyone that purchased Giants season tickets between the Correa signing and now should all receive a small lock of Tim Lincecums hair, and get to rub Barry Bonds bald head at a time of their choosing.

Paul Sporer

1:40

LOOOOL, it's only fair!!!!

1:41

brb--gotta use the restroom!

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