JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Jung Bong Jovi

1:47

No question for me this week, but just here to wish you a happy holidays and thank you for all that you do!

Paul Sporer

1:47

Thank you so much! Happy holidays to you and everyone who comes through & reads the chat (including my transcript readers!)

Say Hey

1:47

How do you feel about Seth Brown this year? Between the statcast data and chipping in a few steals, I feel like he's a great bang for the buck at that point of the draft. You feeling him at all?

Paul Sporer

1:50

If I can do a tiny back pat here, I was quite big on him last year and loved what he delivered! You nailed why I'm still on this year: bang for buck. Obviously it's a terrible team so make sure you can cover his R/RBI deficiencies, but the pop with 7-12 SB (that's a wide range, but I think you have to be open to a wider range on guys like him) definitely works after pick 200. More expensive than last year, but still not expensive. And throws in dual eligibility to boot with 1B/OF

Jack

1:50

Joes iglesias should just book a flight to San Fran now and camp outside of Farhan Zaidis office building until he walks in tomorrow morning. Extra kudos is he sets up a campfire and has a hot cup of Joe waiting for Farhan. That’s how you do business in 2022.

Paul Sporer

1:50

lololol, hey at least the defense would be good!

Kate

1:51

What do you make of Stanton in a dynasty OBP context at this point? Monster barrel rates and still gets on-base at a solid clip. As long as you have IL slots to spare and some depth in OF, he still seems like a solid upside play, no? How long do you think he'll maintain OF eligibility?

Paul Sporer

1:55

I think "veteran upside" is an underrated notion in the fantasy game and someone like Stanton definitely falls into the category as I don't see any reason he can't repeat 2021 in any given healthy-ish season (139 G in '21). As you mentioned, he still smacks the piss outta the ball -- well you weren't that crass with it -- and given that, his .227 BABIP should be a pretty big outlier to the negative, especially as he isn't one of those power hitters with like a 50% FB rate, either, so I think .250/.340/.500 is perfectly reasonable for him with the potential for even more. NYY would likely prefer this to be his last OF-elig. season meaning he'd get fewer than 20 gms out there this year

Guest

1:55

Baty to DH/LF; Mauricio/Vientos for pitching prospects?

Paul Sporer

1:56

They also have 900 catchers so that gives them some more trade capital. I prefer keeping Baty, too... unless they want to trade him to Detroit for.. whatever. Just gimme Baty! lol

Colton

1:56

Currently shopping a catcher right now, Varsho, Melendez, Alvarez. Which one would you be most likely to move on from between them?

Paul Sporer

1:57

Melendez. He's the right combo of being good with interest in the trade market. Varsho checks both those boxes, too, but I just love him and would rather not trade him. Meanwhile, I do worry the 4000 catchers in NY would ding Alvarez's trade value right now.

Anonymous

1:57

For standard 5x5: would you rather have the skipper batting your star hitter(s) leadoff or 2nd/3rd?

Paul Sporer

2:00

2/3 for RBI purposes. I like the extra PA atop the lineup, but it's hard to drive in many guys. There are only 11 seasons of 90+ RBIs from the leadoff spot since integration. (21 batting 2nd, and tons batting 3rd)

Randy

2:01

Do you think that J. Pena is a regression risk? His O-contact is terrible; any chance that he can improve this aspect of his game?

Paul Sporer

2:05

I do and I've been grappling with how to value that concern with the fact that I really like him and also can't rule out that he fixes that issue to mitigate the potential fall off. The thing is, he paid for the O-Swing troubles with a modest 102 wRC+, .253 AVG and .289 OBP. O-Swing troubles don't preclude success, see also: Albies, Ozzie. He also isn't too expensive as the 15th SS off the board at pick 112 so while there is some concern, it's not enough to push me off given the price, upside, and the fact that he has enough raw pwr and spd to overcome it

Keeper Q

2:09

Hi Paul, which arm would be your last keep-forever keeper of Rasmussen, John Gray or Ashby?

Paul Sporer

2:11

Ooh that one is tough. I like Ashby's long term upside the most but I'm reluctant to think too far ahead with pitchers so I'll take Gray

Kate

2:14

Thoughts on Grandal going into this year? If he's healthy, I feel like a bounceback is likely, but I'm a little worried seeing that he didn't get surgery on his back which was apparently a major issue for him in-season this past year.

Paul Sporer

2:15

I am definitely worried a bit after the colossal collapse last year but I think there is enough of a discount around pick 250 to make it worth betting that he can rebound so I like him as a good C2 target

Fleur de AdoLis

2:15

The Michael Harris II hype is real...given regression possibilities/probabilities, is he really a Top 6 rounder? His hype is making me re-think strategy in my 6 keeper league...Edman/Will Smith vs Harris II

Paul Sporer

2:17

I'm OK with a Top 6 round keeper, but I have some pause about his winter ADP of pick 26! That is fulllllll price for a profile that has more flaws than I'd like at such a price

Jasper

2:17

Hey Paul! Can you give me any possible nugget of justification for the A's return for Sean Murphy? Likely to be Christmas dinner conversation.

Paul Sporer

2:19

I wish I could, but I really can't. I know they have Langeliers, but I'd have rather just gotten Contreras back than the pkg. they ultimately received. I'm also lower than consensus on Esteury Ruiz so that is a big part of it, too. Much prefer Tributary Ruiz

Nicklaus Gaut

2:19

Now that Messi has finally won a World Cup, who’s the new biggest fraud in sports and why is it Oneil Cruz, top-75 pick?

Paul Sporer

2:19

Wait, how was he a fraud before this?!?! On the Oneil Cruz thing, I'm with you. He's way overpriced at this juncture

Anonymous

2:19

I was shocked when 1 of the rotographs writers (correctly) pointed out that Bobby Witt Jr. was not actually a great hitter last year (wRC+ of 99). Overdrafted in 2023?

Paul Sporer

2:20

I think most realize his flaws at the dish, but power/speed from a young middle infielder is an attractive profile so his price remains high. I don't fault anyone for balking at his lofty price, though. I'm not taking him in the 1st round

And that's coming from someone who set his min. pick at the Main Event last year

Pickle Rick

2:22

What to do with CJ Abrams in dynasty? Hold and hope?

Paul Sporer

2:24

Yeah I can't quit a guy who skipped AAA to debut at age-21. I'm not gonna pretend his 302 PA were good, but it's far too early to quit him! I will say that I do downgrade him slightly for using his middle name as the basis for his name when his first name is Paul (I imagine CJ is short for Christopher Jr.?)

Salty

2:25

Re: Nimmo - saw his interview with Mad Dog on High Heat, and he really seems like one of those "prove your worth" guys. He did mention that he plans on running more next year, which is interesting because that's been a knock in the fantasy world and something players tend to do in their contract year, not after they sign.

Paul Sporer

2:26

I'd love to see him run more, though I'm not likely to boost him based off just saying that. His late-100s, early-200s ADP is perfectly fair for who he is and if we can somehow get a double-digit SB output, that'd be huge. This was his first fully healthy season and if he can get another one this year, he can absolutely exceed last year's output for a career year

2:29

Thoughts on Jake McCarthy this year?

Paul Sporer

2:29

I prefer more pointed questions than a vague "thoughts on" query, but in the Christmas spirit I will share my write up on him from the Baseball HQ Forecaster:

Matt

2:29

Do you see Jared Walsh as a nice buy-low option in 2023?

Paul Sporer

2:34

I can see a situation where '22 is an injury washout and he bounces back this year. I'm concerned by him falling apart vR, but again if it's an injury washout then it's not worth parsing the issues. He's a post-300 pick so that alone makes him a worthy bounce back if you're a believer as he can't really hurt you at that price point. I was a believer the 2020 blip that put him on the map and I doubt he just lost his skills last yr. The question is how does he recover from his thoracic outlet syndrome surgery? I'll be monitoring to determine how interested I'll be once the spring draft seasons gets going. Even if we get good news on the health as ST gets started, I still don't want him in leagues without IL spots

Matt

2:34

Do you like LAA as the landing spot for Drury? I think he'll get every opportunity to be a full-timer while playing several positions again, though the park is not going to do him any favors.

Paul Sporer

2:38

I really like it! It's been lost in the shuffle of the Correa madness. Not so fast on the park hate, though!

Lost in the Correa shuffle is a solid move by the Angels here! Back to a positive park (6th in overall Park Factor; 7th in HRs) & that lineup is starting to get some depth to it, especially if they can stay healthy

Utilityman Brandon Drury and the Los Angeles Angels are in agreement on a two-year, $17 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Drury, 30, won the Silver Slugger at the utility position last year and is the third bat the Angels have acquired this winter.

It's not Cincinnati, but it's WAAAYYY better than SD. So I think Drury can be a plus bat in what is shaping up to be a strong lineup (pending health, of course, which is no certainty with that crew)

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