JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:27

Gonna come down to which team has the opening sooner given how similar they are: big swing & miss 22 yr olds who didn't impress in their AAA debuts. Think the path is a little easier in Chicago for Davis, but I wouldn't place a big bet on one over the other at this juncture

Galen

1:27

Thoughts on CJ Abrams for 2023? Still young but struggled in 2022. Enough power to keep from getting the bat knocked out of his hands?

Paul Sporer

1:28

I doubt it re: the power, but that doesn't mean I'm out on him. So young like you said, also skipped AAA so he was learning on the job. I'm not quitting him just yet. Can still be a solid AVG hitter w/plenty of SBs

Guest

1:29

Just got Salvy Perez at pick 75 in a 15-team draft and hold 50-round... 2 picks after MJ Melendez at 73. Am I missing something? Why's Salvy going after MJ?

Paul Sporer

1:29

Think that's just an overdraft on Melendez, his DC ADP is 102 to Sal's 68

Seltz

1:30

Is the fear of the Camden wall souring everyone too much on Ryan Mountcastle? It feels like top 15 league wide barrel metrics should eventually play regardless of the ballpark

Paul Sporer

1:31

It went from a 131 to 77 Park Factor for righties. His HR total halved at home and I'm not sure where the recovery come from given those new dimensions

Kyle

1:31

Over/Under 0.5 Justin league wins in fantasy leagues in 2023?

Paul Sporer

1:31

Over. If you play 82 leagues, gotta cop at least 1 win!

Chip

1:32

Do you think Larnach will ever learn how to hit a breaking ball?

Paul Sporer

1:35

He did hit the slider pretty well this year, but breakers as a whole have been his issue, you're right. Hitting lefties will be a bigger hurdle (though the two are related as I'm sure lefty breakers are particularly troublesome for him). There's still a tinge of upside w/the 26 year old

James

1:35

Do you actually construct your own projections or is it just a rankings list?

Paul Sporer

1:35

Doing my own projections this year

Justin

1:35

Alexis Diaz - over/under 25 saves? Seems legit.

Paul Sporer

1:37

I'm a big Diaz fan and have drafted him multiple times already, but I lean under on that figure just bc I'm not sure Cincy will give him the opps. Although if my 3 faves from the Reds - Stephenson, Fraley, and Myers - step up & stay healthy, the offense can definitely jump up and give their pitching some support. At any rate, I'm planning for a low-20s output

Brandon Wood

1:38

Higher OPS this season, Wil Myers or Hunter Renfroe?

Paul Sporer

1:38

Big on the Wil Myers train! Need some health, but Cincy is Coors Jr.!

Chip

1:38

Is Hunter Greene going to take the next step in fantasy relevance this year?

Paul Sporer

1:39

Reds run of questions!!

1:40

Looove how Greene finished the yr, but his command issues aren't just completely fixed after 6 wonderful starts so I expect more volatility. And of course while loving the park for the likes of Myers and Fraley, it gives me some pause on Greene & Lodolo, both of whom I really like

Fake Cronenworth

1:41

Do you like Andres Gimenez to repeat (or improve on!) his 2022 performance? Why or why not? Will he or Amed Rosario be more fantasy relevant this year?

Paul Sporer

1:46

I don't see him improving the 140 wRC+, but he can sustain a lot of the gains. A volume boost on the R/RBI will offset some of the pullback in his AVG. I've tentatively got him for .282/18 HR/19 SB/77 R/74 RBI

Jose

1:47

Is Riley Greene worth a roster spot in a 10 team dynasty? I could control him for the next 5 years but the league is pretty shallow; maybe the top 120 non catching hitters are relevant.

Paul Sporer

1:48

It's close in a dynasty, but I am a bit worried about his fantasy juice. AVG has to drive his profile as I don't think he's a great bet for 20 HR or SB in the short-term. He can be your prospect investment if you fully believe, but he's not a prospect I'm bending over backwards for in fantasy

NOT Justin Mason

1:48

Any reason to gamble on Anthony Rendon this year?

Paul Sporer

1:49

I'm a sucker and I can't pass up the discount at pick 250. Not going to draft him on a bunch of rosters, but I'll have a share or two across my leagues (though I continue to shave leagues so I'll be under 10 this yr... so probably just 1 Rendon share)

Brandon Wood

1:50

Do you think Varsho retains catcher eligibility for 2024 season?

Paul Sporer

1:50

I do not

Craig

1:50

Who do you like better for 2023 -- Ahmed Rosario or India?

Paul Sporer

1:52

I do see a rebound for India (if healthy, of course), but I lean Rosario over him because of the bankable speed

Anonymous

1:53

Wander Franco at ADP80: post-hype sleeper! (Only half-joking)

Paul Sporer

1:54

I was hoping for a bigger discount, but I totally understand why it's not there

Guest

1:54

Do you believe Vinny P has a fairly long leash, would he be guaranteed the first 2-3 months with what he showed last season

Paul Sporer

1:55

Yeah unless he just melts down, he should get a real shot at holding the job

Paul

1:55

I know you love Pasquantino, but isn’t the context, bad team and bad park, likely to drag down his R and RBI totals relative to other 1B ranked near him?

Paul Sporer

1:58

It certainly can, though we've seen some big R/RBI spikes recently from the likes of Perez, Merrifield, and Soler. It's a fair point, though and given that the 3 guys ahead of him - Melendez/Witt/Perez - are all risks for sub-.300 OBPS, I'll probably shave his 91 RBI projection down a bit

Anonymous

1:59

Getting cold feet on Varsho in 1Catcher leagues. Seems pointless to play in the middle if you miss on JTR with all the juicy guys at the back

Paul Sporer

2:00

I get your general pt re: the middle, but Varsho is top tier. JTR/Varsho/Smith/Adley or wait in a 1C lg for me

TB(A)

2:00

What about hopes for Josh Lowe?

Paul Sporer

2:01

Hope he can shave the K rate under 30% so TB gives him a real shot, otherwise I think it's a bleak outlook for him