JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Mike

2:36

I’m pretty high on Rowdy Tellez in an OBP league. He had a low Babip last year and the shift is going away. I’m thinking .330-.350 obp with 30 HR and 90 RBI can be penciled in. What do you think?

Paul Sporer

2:38

Shifts are being altered, not entirely removed so I'm reluctant to go too hard on expected changes for players. That said, I love an AVG boost (and thus an OBP boost) for Tellez on regression alone (.215 BABIP). I have him for .249/29/83 right now

Scrapper

2:38

How do you go about assessing a pitcher’s health going forward?

Paul Sporer

2:41

Definitely a player-to-player thing as chronic injuries are more worrisome than 1-offs. Generally, I don't buy too deeply into the notion of a "safe" pitcher health-wise. Everyone is a 1 pitch away so I'm not going to take the less skilled guy bc of his perceived health. Of course, even accounting for chronic issues can lead you astray as Pablo Lopez's shoulder held up this year, yielding a career high 180 IP!

Dan

2:41

Dylan Carlson still appealing at all in dynasty? Just turned 24, and has had times when he's looked like he's figured it out

Paul Sporer

2:42

I've been a DC believer throughout so I'm biased toward him, but yes I'm staying bought in another year, especially with the robust discount (pick 300 ADP)

2:42

I mean Vinny played pretty well in a half season in just that situation last year... Also, the royals are planning a new park (https://ballparkdigest.com/2022/11/15/royals-propose-new-downtown-kans...). Park factors could be very different in a couple years.

Paul Sporer

2:44

Ooh that'd be interesting if they became more hitter friendly as this set of young bats takes off (MJ, Witt, Vinnie on the high end and Pratto, Mondesi, Olivares as potential studs)

Mustin Jason

2:44

In what depth leagues are you comfortable starting Morel? Rostering?

Paul Sporer

2:44

I'd roster him as a reserve in 12s and start him in 15s

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow

2:44

How are you feeling about Albies this year?

Paul Sporer

2:48

My boy Ozzie!! I'm willing to take this discount during the winter bc a healthy Albies will move up in the Spring. Not saying I wouldn't still take him at an elevated price (currently 52 ADP, could see him in the low-40s, late-30s if he looks like himself in ST), but I want to catch the discount before that possibly happens

Craig W.

2:48

Thoughts on Alek Thomas this year? Did you see enough positives after last years call up for optimism this season?

Paul Sporer

2:51

He's likely to start in AAA so I'm not really drafting him in leagues right now unless they have deep reserve rosters, but even in Draft Champions with 50 rds, I'm not dying to take someone who I expect to spend time in AAA as those can pile up and leave you without fill-ins if you're not careful. I like the player long-term, but not super keen on him for '23, even at a relatively fair price in the early-300s

Dan

2:51

Remember when Goldy couldn't hit fastballs for like three months in 2019? Weird slump.

Paul Sporer

2:51

Jose Ramirez had that wild extended slump, too! Baseball is a wild game like that

Justin Mason

2:51

Does change in casual weather affect how you do your rankings?

Paul Sporer

2:51

It has a HEAVY impact, but I keep that behind closed doors as it is the bulk of my edge on the field

2:52

(can't wait for someone to take that seriously & furiously start Googling "casual weather")

btw, have you finished your 1B projections so we can discuss both our sets on the show tomorrow?!?!?!?

Dan

2:53

Hader or Devin Williams next year?

Paul Sporer

2:54

I have Hader 3/Williams 4 so essentially a coinflip!

Arm fatigue

2:54

Is Ranger Suarez a SP3 in a 6 cat (QS) roto? Also will Pfaddt start in the rotation?

Paul Sporer

2:55

More of an SP4 re: Ranger and I'm not sure re: Pfaadt. Do a Ctrl-F on Pfaadt to find where I discussed him, Jameson, and Nelson. I love Pfaadt & Jameson, but they could be fighting for 1 spot in Spring so I'm not drafting a ton of either just yet. See them as a key waiver pickups

Broken Bat

2:55

Who breaks thrust and hits the firmer prospect top tier level, Tavares or Marsh? #2 do you like the Dodger infield defensively. Happy New Year.

Paul Sporer

2:59

I'm still on the Leody Taveras train as he's just 24 this yr and we actually saw a little something in his MLB sample in '22. I see the 2 pretty similarly overall with Marsh holding a power edge and Taveras being a better spd/AVG option

JWR

2:59

_____ is my favorite pitcher right now in terms of pure stuff.

Paul Sporer

2:59

Healthy deGrom still holding the top spot there

Vince

3:00

Hi! 10-team, H2H, Category. How would you rank Nimo, Kwan, Marte? And thoughts on L Arraez? Thanks

Paul Sporer

3:02

I like them in the order you listed w/Kwan edging Marte bc he actually runs. I'm just not in on Arraez for fantasy purposes... especially shallower leagues. The AVG is great, but I need more to buy in

Guest

3:03

Thoughts on JD Davis this year? He didnt make your top 50 1B but posted a 140 WRC+ after being traded. His last four years of WRC+ are 137, 118, 129, and 119 despite a slow start. There's a clear path to everyday AB with Longoria gone, and SF isnt nearly as crippling on RH bats as lefties. I think he posts the best season by a JD in California and is viable CI even in shallow leagues but is being mostly ignored by the community at large.

Paul Sporer

3:06

Doesn't hit the 20 gm qualification for 1B (would've def made the Top 50 otherwise), but I know many lgs use a lower threshold so you're golden there (he had 18). I agree he's a bit overlooked, though it's understandable for a 30 yr old corner who has reached 400 PA just once in his career. He's priced to buy if you play in a deeper league with an ADP outside the Top 400 and I can see him being a nice waiver scoop in shallower formats if he hits the ground running and builds upon his strong career 119 wRC+ now that he has a full-time role in hand

Randy

3:07

Andrew Vaughn's third season: Does he push his power into mid-twenties?

Paul Sporer

3:08

Definitely plausible and even has major breakout potential as outlined in my 1B ranks: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-first-base-rankings/ --- I can definitely see a huge breakout from Andrew Vaughn, though my projection on him is more measured with a .280 AVG and low-20s HR output. If he takes a leap, there is .300/30 potential. The OF flexibility adds to his appeal, too.

Shifty-ish

3:08

Corey Seager hits .450 this year with the new shift rules.............

Paul Sporer

3:08

AT LEASTTTT

Mia Khalifa

3:09

Will Franmil Reyes get a major league contract?

Paul Sporer

3:09

Think he at least cops of spring invite, but not sure he locks down a guaranteed MLB deal

3:10

OK y'all, hit ya with 2 hours to make up for being a day late... back on regularly scheduled Wednesday next week!! Thanks so much for coming out, have a good one!

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