JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:04

Hello everyone, thanks for comin out!

blerg

1:05

You seem pretty high on Jake Freely compared to the consensus. What are you seeing that you like?

Paul Sporer

1:06

I was a big Jake Fraley guy last year and he performed when he played. Injuries were the only issue. So I'm really just doubling down on last year's love & hoping for some health luck

Ben

1:09

Thoughts on Robbie Ray and Lance Lynn this year?

Paul Sporer

1:10

Got em 43 and 31 ranked, respectively

Pedro

1:14

With the Montas news, what can we expect from Domingo German now that he has a cemented spot in the rotation?

Paul Sporer

1:15

Volatility given his persistent HR issues. If he's keeping the bases clear, he can be a sub-4.00 ERA guy, but I can't project him that low right now. I see a 4.20-4.40 type ERA

PB&Js

1:15

I don't understand how Mondessi is buried so deep in ADP. What am I missing? Sure, trouble staying healthy and batting average fluctuation, but if he's healthy he's a top 40 player. If not healthy you don't get much, but when you can pop him off the IL (assuming your league has one) you get stats for a bit at least. I see keeping him in the 100s because of that, but the 300s? Isn't the risk/reward there?

Paul Sporer

1:17

"Trouble staying healthy" is a massive understatement. He never stays healthy. And he's a bad hitter. The SBs are great and he's finally not wildly overpriced in the market. He's burnt ppl year after year, and we're already hearing he won't be ready for Opening Day... his 234 ADP makes sense to me and if anything, might be a little too high still

Buff

1:17

Will Myers or Trey Mancini, NL only keeper?

Paul Sporer

1:17

Wil Myers for me. Love that park. If he spikes some health, there's a huge season on the horizon

Tyler

1:17

Given the wasteland at 2b, how much of a boost does Nico Hoerner get when he gets that position eligibility?

Paul Sporer

1:19

The upper end of 2B isn't great, but I don't think it's a wasteland and I don't think Nico is that much better than those already qualified at 2B in his ADP range (Gleyber, Muncy, Polanco, Estrada, Lowe, India)

Billy Hamilton

1:19

With the bases and throw over changes for the upcoming season do you see a bigger rise in steals coming from your top line speedsters or from your 10 - 15 steal per year players who may be more apt to take advantage being as they often tend to be the more cerebral players vs simply athletically gifted?

Paul Sporer

1:20

It's really hard to know. I don't think it's cut-and-dried for either side. Some big speedsters will likely add a bunch of steals and some of those more smarts-over-speed base stealers will add 50-60% to their normal totals.

Corbin Carroll

1:20

The projections for my rookie year are eye-popping. Are you buying or selling -- both this year and long term?

Paul Sporer

1:21

His minor league numbers were just so bananas. I'm selling at his price right now as I think there will be some growing pains, especially with the struggles v. lefties

Magic

1:21

Are you steering completely clear of Clevinger this draft season?

Paul Sporer

1:22

Yeah, easy pass for me

Buff

1:22

Ha-Seong Kim or Thairo Estrada, NL only keeper?

Paul Sporer

1:22

I'm a Kim fan!

Joe

1:23

Would you be concerned with a top 4 of Woodruff, Darvish, Rasmussen, and Gonsolin?

Paul Sporer

1:25

Would need to know the league settings for sure, but at first blush, no. That's 4 of my top 50

Broken Bat

1:25

I enjoy following your observations and forecasts. I also have developed the sense that you relay on your visual more than formulas like PECOTA or maybe BATS etc. is this correct? If not, what forecasting formula do think is best for #1. Pitchers #2. Position players?

Paul Sporer

1:28

Yes, that is true. I don't have a set formula that spits out my numbers. I have been doing my projections by hand meaning I go into every player profile and work off a base then tweak up or down based on skills & playing time. I'm a big fan of the BATs (The BAT & BAT X) and would definitely say that's my favorite system. Jeff has been doing some excellent pieces identifying the best performing systems and he's going to start digging into the pitching soon

Daro

1:28

I have Manoah and L Castillo as keepers. Need to keep another SP: Ray or Luzardo. My team is in win now mode.

Paul Sporer

1:29

I have Ray & Luzardo pretty close in my rankings with Ray higher and I would lean that way for you, too, as you being in win-now can use team context as the tiebreaker and the M's should be a good bit better than the Marlins this year, raising Ray's win expectations by a decent margin

Deltabreaks

1:30

You buying any Topps Series 1 baseball cards? Riley Greene rookie cards!!

Paul Sporer

1:30

I haven't copped any yet, but I would like to snag a Greene rookie before the season starts in case he goes off and his prices soar

miratutti

1:30

better sleeper pick: Nick Pratto or Esteury Ruiz?

Paul Sporer

1:34

I like Pratto. I talk about this concept a lot where the fantasy community dumps a prospect if they don't hit immediately and they become a big time bargain. Pratto definitely falls into that category after his underwhelming debut. He doesn't have a spot right now, unlike Ruiz, but he's a much better hitter overall. I understand the Ruiz SB appeal, but he seems like a 1-category guy on a bad team.

Oh Oh Oh Ohtani

1:34

Am I crazy to keep Ohtani at $57 (10 team AL only OBP with daily moves)? I can only keep 4, but he's just so g-d fun.

Paul Sporer

1:35

No, I'd imagine that price is just fine when considering inflation and miiighti even still be a relative discount

Guest

1:35

Opinion on TB bullpen? Does Fairbanks become the guy?

Paul Sporer

1:38

I really like Fairbanks this year and Justin & I had a pretty big debate about him on our AL RP pod: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1137-20... I think now that he's paid, he's going to get a real shot at being the A-guy for saves and getting a real shot at =>25 this year. He will no doubt still come in to face the heart of the order in the 8th sometimes and then maybe Adam comes in for the SV or something, but if Fairbanks is healthy, I think he's the dude

Joe

1:39

Loving the projections on the pod, but wondering how you feel about changing them up on the fly. I know you both are convincing each other at times, but does that concern you about your overall process?

Paul Sporer

1:39

Concern me how?

1:40

I understand the folks who run a full-on system aren't going to make changes on the fly bc they have a vetted system, but when you're doing them by hand, I don't see a problem being open to new info and making adjustments when you think you made an error. I'm not married to these numbers as an end-all, be-all

Duchess

1:42

Scooping any shares of late round Leody Taveras?

Paul Sporer

1:44

Oh definitely! I'm still in on him... and it's funny to even say "still" bc he's 24, but I've been on the Leodys train for a couple years already. If he can just be a 90 or better wRC+, I think that'll be enough to stick in the lineup and pile up SBs with a handful of HRs

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