JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Francisco Alvarez

1:44

How do you feel about me for a late round?

Paul Sporer

1:47

I'm a little tepid on him. I'm nervous about the playing time and generally don't love betting on rookie Cs in general. He's UT-only on NFBC which will be remedied relatively early into the season, but does create a little bit of a headache at the draft table in their leagues with just 7 reserves. I'll still take him Draft Champions leagues (50-round Draft & Hold) knowing he'll get the C elig.

Magic

1:49

Which of your projections or rankings has surprised you the most?

Paul Sporer

1:54

Surprised I was a good bit higher than the market on Marcus Semien as he wound up a top 20 hitter despite not hitting a HR for the first month of the season last year. I'm way higher than Jeff & Justin On C.J. Cron despite really just seeing more of the same from him which has me curious where their projections are on him. I'm way lower than those 2 on Anthony Santander which surprised me bc I'm not anti-Santander and have a veritable repeat for him, too. My guess would be they see some AVG improvement after the .248 BABIP

Magic

1:54

Am I smoking in Amsterdam to think Vinnie P settles in as a 30+ bomb guy?

Paul Sporer

1:54

No, I think it's possible. Not making it my projection, but it's in the range of outcomes

Kyle

1:54

When you die, do you want a seam-shifted wake?

Paul Sporer

1:55

I won't settle for anything less

Hopeful Reds Fan

1:55

Odds Jose Barrero carves himself a somewhat consistent role on the rebuilding Reds? Feel like Newman isn't a huge deterrant

Paul Sporer

1:57

I waaaaant to believe, but he's given his NOTHING to be hopeful about in his 298 MLB PA. And that's a small sample, but the plate skills are HORRENDOUS (40% K, 4% BB) and he had similar issues at AAA last yr, too (38%, 5%). I'd take a shot in a Draft Champions bc he's dirt cheap (678 ADP), but my overall expectations have been substantially lowered for a guy that I really liked the last couple seasons

The 6ix

1:57

Will ZiPS DC be adjusted for injuries and trades before the season? Thinking Montas, AJ Puk etc.

Paul Sporer

1:57

Not entirely sure on that. Hit up Dan on Twitter for clarification there https://twitter.com/DSzymborski

1:58

How much does Nick Gordon play this year, and how do you think he performs?

Paul Sporer

1:59

I think he carves out 400+ PA as a super utility and works his way to a double-double. And he's the primary option to gain for just about any long-term injury and could be a true waiver wire gem with 500+ PA

Branguish

1:59

Taylor Ward.

Paul Sporer

1:59

I love him so much!

Mordecai Brown

2:00

Do you think Hunter Greene will have a breakout year?

Guest

2:00

What caliber of player should I target while shopping Hunter Greene?

Paul Sporer

2:06

There is certainly a good chance for it. His talent is unquestioned, but there is volatility with the command which can be exacerbated by his home park (1.7 HR/9). If the command is more consistent, he can be an absolute stud. I've got him SP36 at 3.67 ERA/1.21 WHIP so I'm on board

Steven

2:08

Nick Martinez is currently listed on Roster Resource as San Diego's SP5. You didn't rank him. Are you assuming he'll end up in the bullpen? If he stuck in the rotation, where would you rank him?

Paul Sporer

2:09

No no that's an olllldddd SP rank, he'll be on the new one coming v soon. I know I said it was coming soon last time, but promise it'll be worth the wait with what we've got comin for rankings!

I've got him SP82 right now

Duchess

2:10

Who ends up with the most saves in LAA?

Paul Sporer

2:10

I'm on the Carlos Estévez train!

Punk in drublic

2:11

Do you think Tony Gonsolin is worth keeping at $10 in a NL only league (cap 260)? He had a very good year LY but it seems all the projections are really down on him.

Paul Sporer

2:16

Yeah I think so. Even with the most negative projection (Steamer), he comes just over $8 in NL Only per the auction calculator and I think he's better than their 4.39/1.33 projection

Duchess

2:16

Dollar flyer round: You going after Whitlock or Trevor Rogers?

RGM

2:16

Thoughts on Garrett Whitlock becoming a Top 40 pitcher this year?

Paul Sporer

2:22

I'm going back to the Rogers well with the discount after last year's struggles. I'm intrigued by Whitlock and open to drafting him, but not sure I see Top 40 just yet. Gotta see how he holds up to 5-6 IP outings over several months (we saw some 5s & 6s last year, but just a month's worth)

Kate

2:22

I'm shocked how high the industry seems to be on Oscar Gonzalez. Super high o-swing (no walks), hits the ball on the ground a ton, and no steals despite good sprint speed. He's also a bad defender. This seems like way too much risk for only a moderate ceiling. What do you think sporer?

Paul Sporer

2:25

Fully agree and underscored those concerns on our 2nd OF preview pod - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1131-20... His 180 ADP isn't terrible, but he's a popular sleeper for folks and I'm not in on that given his profile

The 6ix

2:26

Chris Bassitt: tougher ballpark, AL East, high road ERA - is he a stay-away?

Paul Sporer

2:30

Not a *must* stay-away, but I'm down on him v. the market so probably won't wind up with him too much. He only had a 4.00 ERA on the road last year which isn't exactly bad, but it's an overall tougher environment for a guy in his mid-30s. I have him more in line with his 2019 when he put up a 3.81/1.19 (3.92/1.19 for my projection)

2:31

Ok y'all, I have to get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions there. Have a good one, y’all!

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