JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:49

Yeah it was always going to be really hard for him to maintain a 24% HR/FB rate which is what it was through May. His 19% rate is still a career high and if he doesn't fix his 15% FB rate since June 1st, it's going to come down quite a bit more. This is always the tough part about buying into early skill changes bc a lot of times guys slide back into their old habits. I'm not saying we shouldn't have picked up Yandy and all that, just that maintaining such improvements for 6 mos. is HARD

B’ryce Szmbobski

1:51

Spencer Strider’s change up is legit by my eye test. Almost time to stop calling him a 2 pitch pitcher

Paul Sporer

1:51

Fair point, though he still uses it just 8% of the time so it's not really a viable third offering yet. It may have the ability to be one if he needs it, but he hasn't needed it!

B’ryce Szmbobski

1:51

lets she’d some tears for the broken promise of 3B salvation incarnate as CES.

Paul Sporer

1:52

Yeah just too many great call-ups for Cincy lol

No glasses on!

1:52

Cower up for O’s just another OF bat or something more intriguing?

Paul Sporer

1:53

Cowser could definitely be an all-formats dude. I'd pick him up on spec and see where it goes in most leagues. Would depend who I'm cutting in a 10-teamer but 12s and deeper, I should have someone worth cutting for him

Anselm

1:54

Have to drop one in a 12 team roto/obp league: Friedl, Raley, Gurriel Jr., Pham, McCarthy

Paul Sporer

1:56

McCarthy unless you're desperate for the SBs. He's been better since his recall, but doesn't play daily and mostly bats last

Deeraj

1:56

no question this time, just a thank you for making Wednesday just a little bit better.

Paul Sporer

1:56

You're very welcome, ty to you and everyone else for coming out!

Izzy

1:56

Cal Raliegh vs Kirk... who's better, both ROS and dynasty league?

Paul Sporer

2:01

With Kirk only hitting .247, it's not even an AVG v. HR battle and while he could improve from here forward, I'm going Raleigh for ROS. I still lean closer to Kirk for the long-term, though. Still think that bat will develop well and make him a very nice top 10 C

shawn

2:02

is trea turner a buy low candidate? he seemed to be earlier in the year but hes still not looking great

Paul Sporer

2:03

If I can get a discount on Trea, I'd absolutely buy. I generally like to allow a transition year for guys going into a MASSIVE deal like his so I wasn't dying to draft him but in-season acquisition is a bit different particularly if the pricing changes

Matt

2:03

We dropping Severino yet?

Paul Sporer

2:04

Depends on league size, but in 12s and lower, I don't have an issue. Probably still just benching in 15s bc there isn't much on the wire, but if you have someone you really like on the wire of a deep lg and Sevvy is your only cut, go for it

Trey

2:04

Yelich quietly on 20/40 ish pace and best wRC+ since 2019. Is this real, and does it change perception of him for next couple of years?

Paul Sporer

2:06

I buy it. It's really been health, not skills w/Yelich. Even playing 154 gms last yr, he didn't look like himself so he seemed to be at less than 100% for most of the season. His excellence this yr has been quiet bc it seems if he's not an MVP candidate like 2018-19, he's going to be a bit overlooked which is fine by me if it keeps the price at bay. That said, if he does go 20-40 or close to it, the price will rise next year

shawn

2:06

in shallow formats, is fairbanks worth rostering? yeah, he's the closer but the dude rarely seems to get opportunity (assuming hes healthy)

Paul Sporer

2:07

If he stays healthy (which is a challenge), he'll get plenty of opps. Must roster when healthy and he was activated today

Dynasty

2:07

Is EDLC a top 20 player?

Paul Sporer

2:07

No, definitely not. Love what he's doing and it's been remarkably exciting to watch him storm the league, but no one ascends to Top 20 off of just 112 PA

McBoatface

2:07

One more who's the cut: AL only, with Rodon coming back: Crawford or Canning

Paul Sporer

2:09

Really dig both and would probably look to the upcoming schedules to see if there was an edge there. Is there no other cut? They seem too good to cut for an AL Only. Modestttt lean toward Kutter

McBoatface

2:09

Hi. Thanks for chatting. Who's the cut with ERod coming back: ERod, Bradish, or Gavin Williams.

Paul Sporer

2:10

Damn this one is even tougher than your other one. Gotta be Williams but man that's a bummer to cut such a live arm

Dan

2:10

Can Jarred Kelenic get back to what he was in April?

Paul Sporer

2:11

Not without cutting the Ks. That's always been my issue w/him and when they were down in April, I was impressed, but wasn't ready to say it was real until we saw a bigger sample... turns out it wasn't all that real and his Ks back through the roof

2:11

Small sample size aside, is it reasonable to expect Elly to hit .250 with 30/30 potential? He seems to have figured something out on the plate discipline side of things

Paul Sporer

2:14

31% K/6% BB is a really bad plate profile. His 14% BB in AAA was likely due to pitchers just being afraid of him and essentially unintentionally intentionally walking him w/easy pitches to take as opposed to any real skill growth in plate discipline. He's probably more of a .230s type hitter unless he improves the plate profile, but the pwr & spd will be there and make him an easy must-roster

B’ryce Szmbobski

2:14

ELDC is absolutely a top 20 player… to watch!

Paul Sporer

2:14

True!

Phil

2:14

How do Acuna and JRod compare as dynasty assets in a points context? Especially given the contrasting seasons this year to date

Paul Sporer

2:14

Acuña is higher but they are both Top 5 guys

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:15

League average triple slash line right now is .248/.320/.410 which is an improvement from years past, but still well below the high .260s/ mid .330s/.420s-.430s we were consistently getting through the early 2000s. You think we'll ever get back to that offensive environment?

Paul Sporer

2:15

Not until something is done to more tangibly curb the leaguewide K%

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:16

Also, for shiggles (sh*ts and giggles)

Would you rather:

▪️ Be given $1 million upfront
OR
▪️ A chance at $10 million if you can get a hit against Clayton Kershaw

Paul Sporer

2:17

The million, of course, and anyone who says differently that isn't currently in the majors or high minors is truly a delusional moron, lol. I saw the football one getting passed around yesterday about like 5 yards on 10 carries and those folks are even more delusional, TBH lol

2:18

With the All-Star break next wk, we can probably do a longer chat, but I do have a podcast appearance coming up right now that I have to get to so I appreciate y'all coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!

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