JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Tim

1:32

Tyler Stephenson’s hard hit and ISO are down; any sense that he’ll get them back in line and live up to the preseason hype?

Paul Sporer

1:39

I'm a little disappointed as he's someone I'm a big fan of this year, but I still have optimism for the rest of the year. Hard hit rate is up 6 pts, Barrel Rate up a little (marginal, but it's not down)... the launch angle is a down a bit and could be a big reason why the better ball striking isn't bringing HRs. I still want hitters in that park & lineup, though, so I'm reluctant to cut him in really any spots at this juncture. He's the 12th ranked C so I don't think he has to be cut in 10-team 1 C. The Reds open with 9 at home and he's done some of his best work lately (.256/.335/.406, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 28 R in last 203 PA).

Ezra

1:39

I'm not good at making sense of the Statcast numbers... From what I understand, earlier in the season, Baty's traditional stat line didn't look good, but the stratcast numbers suggested future improvement. Is that still the case? Is there still reason to be optimistic?

Paul Sporer

1:46

That's exactly right. Through May, he was toting a 52% Hard Hit rate, 9% Barrel suggesting he was hitting the ball hard enough to net better results. Instead of the results catching up to the metrics, he's gone the other way. His HH is 41% and Barrel 3% in his last 99 PA. I still hold out plenty of long term hope, but he is cuttable in a lot of formats right now. The tough part is that he's the kind of guy who can flick a switch and just go off right after you cut him, but that's just the variability of our game. As the 48th ranked 3B, you can do better with the roster spot, but if it's a spot you don't need right now to succeed and Baty's your guy, then feel free to hold a bit longer in case the switch flicks

Spencer Steer

1:46

Am I a sell-high in dynasty leagues or is most of what I'm doing sustainable? Thx Paul!

Paul Sporer

1:49

I'm a believer, dude just hits. No single thing is excellent trait in his profile, but together it all works, especially in that park. If you want to cash him in as a plus asset in a dynasty league, that's totally fine, but I don't think he's a hot potato you have to get out from under.

kcc26

1:50

12 team H2H: muncy/verlander or Alonso?

Paul Sporer

1:51

Alonso. Looks like a solid deal on both sides, but this is a classic consolidation of talent in a 12

ha-seong him

1:51

hey paul, who do you like more between Ha-Seong Kim and Andres Gimenez in roto? I was originally leaning Kim since he's been hitting leadoff, but Gimenez finally seems to be waking up

Paul Sporer

1:54

Cleveland's rising! Kim has closed the gap, but it's still Gimenez

Sean

1:54

Jonathan Aranda worth stashing?

Paul Sporer

1:55

Depends on league size

Matt

1:55

Re my question about your Twitter...you're not coming up in search was why I asked. Can't seem to locate your account

Paul Sporer

1:55

Oh word? It's still @sporer

Mike

1:55

Which Detmers will we see in the 2nd half, the one from the beginning of the season and recent Dodgers game or the one who has been hot the last 45 days?

Paul Sporer

1:55

I lean toward the good, I'm a big fan of him

Braves Fan

1:56

RoS Yelich or Schwarber?

Paul Sporer

1:57

Yelich unless you need power

John

2:00

Bailey ober stuff plus is bad but his results have been great. How do you account for it?

Paul Sporer

2:00

More to pitching than Stuff+ (not to denigrate it, but there’s always outliers)

Erik

2:01

Vlad for Arraez fair, particularly if the team acquiring Vlad needs power and has excess BA.

Paul Sporer

2:01

I prefer Vlad for sure bc there’s a world where can match Arraez in AVG while hitting for power if he gets hot. Hold if you have Vlad

Future Me

2:02

Which of these guys could be top 40 pitchers next year: Woo, Abbott, Grayson, Bradish, Eflin and ober?

Paul Sporer

2:04

All of em! This is a group I really like so it’s hard to even pick favorites for 2024 with any certainty but I’m heavy on the Bradish train, love what TB has gotten out of Eflin and believe in it, and Grayson could be a star quickly, perhaps as early as the 2H.

Tyler O'Neill

2:06

Any interest in me ROS?

Paul Sporer

2:06

Definitely depends for who & league size but I'm not super keen on him

Chip

2:06

Cristopher Sanchez or Clarke Schmidt for my last SP in a 12-team H2H league?

Paul Sporer

2:12

Big fan of Cristopher Sánchez! Schmidt is rolling of late with a 2.81 ERA/1.17 WHIP/14% K-BB over his last 48 IP so I'd lean toward schedule to split them. Schmidt opens w/COL and lives in the AL East (I know there are fewer division games, but still more than out of it), Sanchez has to avoid ATL but the other division rivals aren't inherently frightening. Lean Sanchez if you it can only be one

Chess Club Participant

2:12

How badly will Votto fall back to earth? Highest swinging strike rate for his career, but small sample too. Stick with it, or try to sell high?

Paul Sporer

2:17

If you can sell high, I'm definitely OK with that, but I doubt he'll bring a huge return in most situations. It's a clear hot streak to be at this level but he is hitting a lot like that 2021 run so given that I doubt there will be big returns, I'm inclined to ride it out and hope for something looking like that '21 2H surge of 25 HR and 1.057 OPS!

A's Pitchers

2:17

A couple weeks ago you felt Sears, Blackburn, Hogan Harris all had roles on an AL only team. Do you still feel that way? I'm holding Sears, the other 2 are on the wire.

Paul Sporer

2:19

My Harris stance has softened so I'm not holding there with viable options on the wire. Still good with Blackburn in AL Only, though.

Colton

2:19

Why does someone keep adding peanuts to every comment? It's a bit annoying to see.

Paul Sporer

2:20

You can turn it off by clicking the little face above the chat box:

Bob

2:20

Ben Lively looks pretty decent from my vantage point, nearly a K per inning; ERA under 4 and WHIP at 1.24; 4 wins but only 1 QS. Do you think he's a just streamer or a rosterable SP?

Paul Sporer

2:23

Team streamer. No need to start every time out but I'm with you on seeing some viability that is worth holding on reserves when you don't start

HappyFunBall

2:23

Have Arraez, love Arraez, am super happy that I drafted him this year instead of having to trade for him to earn 2nd half AVG like in past seasons.

If offered VladJr straight up, I would put a work call on hold to go hit accept before the other owner had a chance to rethink his foolishness

Paul Sporer

2:23

lolololol

Severino

2:24

Is Severino a buy low (just FAAB) in AL Only?

Paul Sporer

2:27

I want to believe, but it's so hard. The health history paired with the struggles make him a tough hold but I realize the allure in an AL Only where the wires are always scant. If it's truly a stash where you can afford the roster spot, take the spec, but be ready to move on if and when that spot becomes a need

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